706 FXUS65 KABQ 170522 AAB AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1122 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1115 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 - Another period of very dry, warm and windy conditions is on tap Thursday through Friday with high fire danger and areas of blowing dust. - Colder with precipitation chances favoring western and northern areas late Friday through Saturday as a system moves across the state. A few to several inches of snow accumulation possible across the northern mountains on Saturday. - Warmer and dry weather returns early next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Critical to extreme fire weather threat tomorrow with widespread low humidities and strong winds. Rapid fire spread, some damaging gusts, and blowing dust will be the main concerns during the afternoon. A storm system begins to approach from the west on Friday, cooling temperatures areawide. Breezy to gusty winds will still create critical fire conditions for parts of south-central and eastern New Mexico. This storm system will bring in more widespread precipitation, including a few inches of snowfall for the northern mountains. The system exits the region on Sunday, allowing for warmer and drier conditions to begin the next week. Increased precipitation chances for eastern New Mexico for the middle of the week, along with the possibility of some thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Water vapor imagery shows dry air continuing to intrude into New Mexico throughout today. This will continue to install deep mixing layers through the state and allow good momentum transfer to the surface, resulting in sustained gusts of 30-40mph into the evening. Through the overnight hours, 700mb winds increase across the state up to 35-45kts, then up to 60kts as we get into the afternoon hours of Thursday. With mixed layers over 13kft AGL in the RGV and across the eastern plains, widespread wind gusts of 45-60mph are very likely through the region. With much of the region not receiving any appreciable precipitation within the last week, blowing dust will be of concern across much of the lower elevation areas as southwest winds begin to pick up. Of notable concern is the area in and around Roswell and its Relief Route, where previous strong wind events have limited visibilities to less than a mile, creating hazardous travel conditions. With this afternoon forecast package, have upgraded much of central NM to a High Wind Warning, beginning at 11am Thursday. The South Central Mountains and Sangre de Cristo Mountains will begin at 7am, given the high likelihood of strong wind gusts beginning sooner due to higher elevations. Elsewhere, the rest of eastern NM and a bulk of south-central and western NM are in Wind Advisories, where gusts up to 50-55mph are expected. Winds continue to produce through the early evening hours, before tapering off a bit after sunset Thursday. High temperatures will likely soar over the eastern plains Thursday in response to strong downsloping winds, with some locations potentially setting record high temperatures. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 The upper level trough will continue to dig down and deepen as it approaches the Four Corners area on Friday, closing off into a low on Friday night as it enters the state. Meanwhile, a backdoor cold front will be pushing through northeast New Mexico during the evening as well. Exact details on the timing and strength of this backdoor front are still a little fuzzy, which makes for a tricky forecast because this backdoor front can be a determining factor for several things: the extent and duration of fire weather conditions for eastern NM, high temperatures for eastern areas, and precipitation for northern and northeastern areas. For most of eastern New Mexico, strong southwest flow will will dominate the weather throughout the day and may act to limit the advancement of the backdoor front. Southwest flow aloft will still be pretty strong, with a 120 kt jet streak overhead and 35 to 45 kt 700 mb winds over the southern half of the state. Along with a sub 1000 mb lee-side surface trough developing during the afternoon, diurnal heating should aid in mixing down some stronger wind speeds to the surface. The strongest gusts will be along the southern mountains, with parts of the central highlands also getting near Wind Advisory criteria for a couple of hours. With relative humidities still quite low for central and eastern New Mexico, there will also be critical fire weather conditions with the threat of rapid fire spread. These downsloping southwest winds will also aid in raising temperatures during the afternoon. With a pretty strong pressure gradient over NE areas, the backdoor cold front will come roaring through the plains during the evening and into the early morning hours on Saturday. As the low pressure center starts to inch east into New Mexico, precipitation chances increase along the Four Corners and into northern New Mexico. An initial band of rain and snow looks to move in as early as Friday afternoon, with precipitation then becoming more widespread on Friday night and Saturday. A sizable dry slot looks to limit precipitation for southern and central areas, so the highest chance of rain will be for the northern half of the state. This storm will also be a pretty cold system, with 700 mb temperatures dropping from -5 to -8 C throughout much of the region, snow elevations look to drop to around 5,500 to 6,000 feet. High temperatures on Saturday will be 10 to 20 degrees below average for this time of year. The backdoor front will serve to moisten the environment and provide greater forcing for precipitation along the northeast highlands. Upslope flow along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo mountains will make this area one of the hotpots for snowfall with about a 60% chance of 24 hr snowfall totals greater than 6 inches. The system looks to exit the region by Sunday, with the upper level weather pattern becoming more zonal for next week. As a result, temperatures will rebound back to above normal and conditions look to remain mostly dry to start the week. Southeasterly flow on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons looks to bring in some Gulf moisture into the eastern plains that could lead to some afternoon convection and showers. Precipitation chances will be greater on Wednesday evening with some guidance hinting a possible dryline along the TX-NM border. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist at most TAF sites, but MVFR conditions in blowing dust are likely at KSAF, KABQ and KAEG Thursday afternoon with strong west-southwest winds developing. KROW will be impacted more by blowing dust, with LIFR conditions likely during the afternoon hours. Gusts to between 45-55kts are likely across much of central and eastern NM Thursday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 402 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY... Widespread critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are highly likely Thursday, where strong wind gusts up to 65mph and relative humidity values in the single digits remain for several hours. The extremely critical conditions are most favored for east central and northeast NM, where many hours of single digit humidities are likely to exist. Rapid fire growth will be very favored across the region Thursday. An upper low continues to move towards NM on Friday, but upper level winds and deep mixing will still allow for gusty winds across south central and eastern NM, promoting another round of critical fire weather conditions. In addition, humidity recoveries are expected to remain poor through Thursday night. With that, a Fire Weather Watch is now in effect for Friday. Precipitation returns to the state this weekend, with lower elevation wetting precipitation along with mountain snow favored, with the best chances being in western and northern NM. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 45 71 38 53 / 0 0 20 80 Dulce........................... 37 67 31 54 / 5 5 20 70 Cuba............................ 39 69 32 58 / 0 0 0 50 Gallup.......................... 35 67 28 55 / 0 0 10 60 El Morro........................ 35 66 31 55 / 0 0 0 50 Grants.......................... 34 72 29 61 / 0 0 0 30 Quemado......................... 38 69 31 59 / 0 0 0 20 Magdalena....................... 46 73 39 64 / 0 0 0 10 Datil........................... 38 68 34 59 / 0 0 0 10 Reserve......................... 39 72 30 63 / 0 0 0 10 Glenwood........................ 43 77 33 68 / 0 0 0 10 Chama........................... 35 60 28 48 / 5 0 10 70 Los Alamos...................... 45 70 40 58 / 0 0 0 40 Pecos........................... 44 71 37 60 / 0 0 0 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 65 33 55 / 0 0 0 40 Red River....................... 36 55 28 46 / 0 0 0 50 Angel Fire...................... 34 62 26 53 / 0 0 0 40 Taos............................ 35 70 30 59 / 0 0 0 30 Mora............................ 42 69 33 58 / 0 0 0 30 Espanola........................ 43 77 37 66 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Fe........................ 45 72 39 60 / 0 0 0 30 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 76 39 62 / 0 0 0 30 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 79 47 67 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Heights............. 49 80 44 68 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque Valley.............. 47 83 43 70 / 0 0 0 20 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 49 81 44 69 / 0 0 0 20 Belen........................... 45 83 40 73 / 0 0 0 10 Bernalillo...................... 48 82 44 70 / 0 0 0 20 Bosque Farms.................... 45 82 39 72 / 0 0 0 10 Corrales........................ 48 82 43 70 / 0 0 0 20 Los Lunas....................... 45 82 40 72 / 0 0 0 10 Placitas........................ 50 77 45 66 / 0 0 0 20 Rio Rancho...................... 49 81 44 70 / 0 0 0 20 Socorro......................... 49 85 45 75 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 74 41 63 / 0 0 0 30 Tijeras......................... 47 76 41 64 / 0 0 0 30 Edgewood........................ 44 77 39 65 / 0 0 0 20 Moriarty/Estancia............... 41 78 35 67 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 43 73 36 63 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 47 76 40 66 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 47 75 40 65 / 0 0 0 5 Carrizozo....................... 55 79 50 68 / 0 0 0 5 Ruidoso......................... 53 73 46 62 / 0 0 0 5 Capulin......................... 45 73 34 57 / 0 0 0 40 Raton........................... 43 77 34 63 / 0 0 0 30 Springer........................ 42 78 35 65 / 0 0 0 20 Las Vegas....................... 45 75 38 64 / 0 0 0 10 Clayton......................... 50 83 43 64 / 0 0 0 20 Roy............................. 48 79 41 66 / 0 0 0 10 Conchas......................... 51 88 47 76 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Rosa...................... 50 85 46 72 / 0 0 0 5 Tucumcari....................... 54 90 51 77 / 0 0 0 5 Clovis.......................... 54 90 55 80 / 0 0 0 5 Portales........................ 53 91 54 81 / 0 0 0 5 Fort Sumner..................... 52 90 51 78 / 0 0 0 5 Roswell......................... 56 94 59 83 / 0 0 0 5 Picacho......................... 56 85 51 75 / 0 0 0 5 Elk............................. 56 83 50 73 / 0 0 0 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ101- 104>106-109-120>126. High Wind Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ215- 222>225-227>229-231>233-239-240. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ205-208- 210>212-216-218>221-230-234>238-241. Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for NMZ106-123>126. High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ213-214- 226. && $$ SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...11 Please note: The SYNOPSIS section will be terminated by the end of April.