412 FXUS65 KABQ 101134 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 534 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 - High risk of burn scar flash flooding today then a moderate risk on Wednesday, especially for the Ruidoso area. There is a low risk of urban flash flooding today. - A few strong storms mainly south of U.S. Highway 60 may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts from early this afternoon into the evening. - Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season so far late this week into early next week, creating moderate to major heat risk in most lower elevation locations. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Dry conditions prevail across the Land of Enchantment tonight, but an upper-low is moving overhead as evidenced by the counter- clockwise swirl in the mid and high level debris clouds from this past afternoon`s convection. The center of the circulation will be the focus of convective initiation today as it slides southeastward into south-central NM. Unfortunately, this is very close to the Ruidoso complex of burn scars which will likely be one of the very first areas for storms to initiate in the late morning hours. Young storms will be nearly stationary, with steering flow taking them off to the south/southeast as they mature later in the afternoon. The HREF mean is showing 0.25 to 0.5" over all burn scars, but there is a realistic chance of 1"+ (as evidenced by probabilistic guidance), especially if a mid-afternoon storms develops over the same area that a storm develops in the late morning. Elsewhere, most storms will initiate over the high terrain as well and slowly move southeast into the lower elevations during the afternoon. Outflow interactions could spark a storm in both the Albuquerque and Santa Fe metros during the afternoon, potentially impacting the evening commute. Shear is significantly lower than yesterday so large hail will no longer be a threat, but DCAPE of 600-900J/kg suggest strong outflow wind gusts will still be a concern. Modeled bulk shear has trended lower over the southeast plains and so now its unlikely that storms will be able to organize as they come off the mountains into the plains. Drier air intrudes from the west Wednesday, limiting the coverage of storms west of the central mountain chain. Slow-moving storms will favor the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands. Lower PWATs and less instability indicate a lower threat of burn scar flash flooding, however soils could be primed from rainfall today so flash flooding concerns are still moderate over area burn scars. The combination of rising heights and drier air intruding from the west will bring highs up about 5 degrees from Tuesday`s highs areawide and will mark the start of a warming trend that will continue into the long-term. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Lingering showers and storms Wednesday night will dissipate after midnight with remnant mid level cloud cover thru Thursday morning. Upper level ridging will strengthen Thursday with drier air moving farther east into central NM compared to recent days. Temps will trend warmer with less coverage of showers and storms. Activity that does form will favor the central mt chain then move slowly south and east into nearby highlands with brief rain and gusty winds. Friday will be even warmer with a few more slow-moving storms possible along the central mt chain and nearby highlands. A more well-defined 591dm H5 high over northern Sonora Friday will build northward toward western NM and strengthen to near 597dm by Monday. Much drier air entering the ridge from AZ will penetrate farther east into more of NM over the weekend. The risk for heat- related illnesses will increase with the hottest temps so far this season. The latest NBM probs for max temps >99F exceed 80% in the RGV south of ABQ over the weekend. Storm chances will be non-zero but still very low and confined to favored high terrain areas in the Sangre de Cristo Mts and perhaps far eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Despite clearing high clouds and light winds, low clouds and fog have not developed in eastern NM this morning. Storms will develop over the high terrain around 17Z, moving into the lower elevations during the afternoon hours. Gusty outflow winds could impact any terminal, with the highest confidence at KLVS and KROW. Cloud bases with storms will be higher than yesterday and the ingredients for severe weather are not present so any visibility reductions from showers and storms will be very brief. There is a low chance that fog develops in the southeast plains after 06Z tomorrow once storms have exited off to the south and east. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Scattered showers and storms will favor areas along and east of the Continental Divide today, but there may be a few dry storms that produce little to no rainfall in far western NM near the AZ border. Storms will favor the central mountain chain and adjacent highlands on Wednesday as overall storm coverage decreases. A warming and drying trend will continue into Thursday and Friday as ridging amplifies over the desert southwest. Hot temperatures Friday through early next week will increase the risk of heat-related illness, particularly in the lower elevations of central and western NM. There is a low chance of daily rounds of afternoon storms in eastern NM during this same time period, however confidence in more than isolated coverage is low. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 89 57 92 57 / 10 5 0 0 Dulce........................... 81 46 85 44 / 40 10 20 5 Cuba............................ 78 52 85 52 / 40 30 10 5 Gallup.......................... 85 50 89 50 / 10 10 5 5 El Morro........................ 79 51 84 52 / 30 20 20 5 Grants.......................... 82 51 88 51 / 30 20 20 5 Quemado......................... 82 54 87 54 / 30 20 10 10 Magdalena....................... 81 56 85 59 / 60 20 40 20 Datil........................... 79 52 84 54 / 50 20 30 10 Reserve......................... 87 53 93 50 / 30 10 10 5 Glenwood........................ 91 58 97 55 / 20 10 10 5 Chama........................... 73 46 78 45 / 40 10 30 10 Los Alamos...................... 75 55 81 56 / 50 20 40 5 Pecos........................... 74 53 80 52 / 50 20 40 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 74 50 80 49 / 50 10 40 10 Red River....................... 65 43 70 42 / 50 10 50 10 Angel Fire...................... 69 41 75 38 / 50 10 40 10 Taos............................ 78 47 82 47 / 40 10 30 10 Mora............................ 73 49 79 47 / 60 20 50 10 Espanola........................ 82 54 89 55 / 40 20 20 5 Santa Fe........................ 77 55 82 55 / 50 20 30 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 80 54 86 55 / 40 20 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 84 61 91 63 / 30 20 20 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 86 61 92 62 / 30 20 5 10 Albuquerque Valley.............. 88 60 94 60 / 30 20 5 10 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 86 60 92 62 / 20 20 5 10 Belen........................... 89 58 93 59 / 30 20 10 10 Bernalillo...................... 87 58 93 60 / 30 20 10 5 Bosque Farms.................... 88 57 93 58 / 30 20 5 10 Corrales........................ 87 59 93 61 / 30 20 5 10 Los Lunas....................... 88 59 93 59 / 30 20 5 10 Placitas........................ 83 59 89 61 / 30 20 10 10 Rio Rancho...................... 86 59 93 62 / 30 20 5 5 Socorro......................... 90 61 95 64 / 50 20 20 10 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 78 54 84 55 / 30 20 20 10 Tijeras......................... 80 56 86 57 / 30 20 20 10 Edgewood........................ 79 52 85 53 / 40 20 20 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 81 50 86 49 / 40 20 20 10 Clines Corners.................. 75 52 80 52 / 40 20 20 20 Mountainair..................... 79 53 85 54 / 40 30 20 20 Gran Quivira.................... 79 52 85 54 / 50 30 20 20 Carrizozo....................... 81 58 87 60 / 60 30 30 20 Ruidoso......................... 71 53 80 56 / 70 30 40 10 Capulin......................... 76 50 79 50 / 20 10 30 10 Raton........................... 80 50 84 50 / 30 10 20 5 Springer........................ 80 50 84 50 / 30 10 30 10 Las Vegas....................... 75 50 81 51 / 40 20 40 10 Clayton......................... 82 57 83 57 / 10 10 5 5 Roy............................. 77 55 81 54 / 30 10 20 10 Conchas......................... 82 60 87 60 / 30 20 10 10 Santa Rosa...................... 80 58 84 58 / 50 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 81 59 85 59 / 30 20 5 10 Clovis.......................... 79 60 83 60 / 60 30 10 20 Portales........................ 80 59 84 60 / 70 40 10 10 Fort Sumner..................... 82 59 86 60 / 60 30 20 10 Roswell......................... 85 62 90 65 / 50 30 20 10 Picacho......................... 79 56 86 59 / 70 30 40 10 Elk............................. 78 55 86 56 / 80 30 40 10 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 11 AM MDT this morning through this evening for NMZ214-215-226-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...16