423 FXUS65 KABQ 082107 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 307 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - A few severe storms will produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in northeast and east central New Mexico through this evening. - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding Monday increases to high on Tuesday. There will also be a low risk of urban flash flooding each afternoon. A few storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in central and eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon. - Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season thus far late next week, creating moderate heat risk in most lower elevation locations. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A backdoor cold front stretched from south of Raton to south of Clayton as of this writing. Storms have developed along the front, but the severe weather has thus far stayed east of the state line. Additional storms have developed ahead of the front and will continue to move eastward. All storms are capable of severe weather this afternoon and evening, and we will be closely watching the areas where the front collides with ongoing storms ahead of the front. Large hail and damaging winds the main threats, however, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly if the storm rides the frontal boundary for an extended amount of time. In addition to storms along and just ahead of the boundary, a secondary round of thunderstorms are expected across northeast NM this evening as storms roll southeastward off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in Colorado. Severe weather isn`t as likely with this second round of storms as they should be elevated behind the front and mid level lapse rates won`t be as steep, but can`t rule it out altogether. Any storms will help propel the front south and west through the plains through the evening, and then westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain around or shortly after midnight. Gusty canyon winds are expected in the Albuquerque Metro, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph likely. Gap winds will not be as strong in the Santa Fe Metro. Low level moisture will spill westward to at least the ContDvd by mid morning Monday, setting the stage for an active Monday. Showers and thunderstorms should erupt over the high terrain by early afternoon Monday. The greatest storm coverage will be across the Northern Mountains. Here, modest instability combined with terrain influences and PWATs between 0.75 and 1 inch (or ~2 stddev above normal) will allow for strong storms containing hail and heavy rainfall. Greatest concern exists over the Hermit`s Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. With rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour, heavy runoff may quickly lead to flash flooding within and downstream of the burn scar. A Flood Watch has been issued to account for this potential. Models are more consistent now showing storms rolling off the Sangre de Cristos and elsewhere along the Central Mountain Chain toward the southeast across the plains Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with any storm. Eventually, storms should merge into an MCS across the eastern plains before moving into Texas. All-in-all, a large area of central and eastern NM will be favored for both heavy rainfall and severe weather. West of the Central Mountain Chain, storms won`t be quite as numerous, but outflow boundary collisions from storms over the Northern Mountains should allow for a few strong to severe storms, with heavy rainfall from the Santa Fe Metro southward to Albuquerque. Farther west, particularly along and west of the ContDvd, a mix of wet and dry storms are expected. Models continue to hint at an MCV developing due to the MCS. This circulation may keep at least isolated showers and thunderstorms persisting through the overnight hours Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 On Tuesday, the upper low that is over the Pacific today will finally cross NM as an open trough. Weak ascent from this system combined with abundant moisture still in place will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the high terrain. Pending how much rainfall HPCC receives on Monday, another Flood Watch may be needed for Tuesday for that area as well as the burn scars around Ruidoso. Heavy rainfall is possible with nearly any storm, but severe weather should be limited to areas across south central and southeast NM where significant instability will be. However, any remnant boundaries from Monday`s convection and/or the placement of the MCV could locally enhance storms elsewhere. The trough will shift eastward on Tuesday night, and less storm coverage is expected for Wednesday. However, moisture will recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms favoring the high terrain. Drier air will push in from the west on Thursday and Friday, limiting storm coverage a little more each day. If storms develop, they will favor the Sangre de Cristo and South Central Mountains before shifting off toward the southeast. With less storm coverage and the upper high building over the area, temperatures will climb. Minor to moderate heat risk impacts are expected by Friday across the Rio Grande Valley, before expanding across much of western NM on Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Mainly low VFR and MVFR cigs are eroding across east central NM late this morning. Like yesterday, some of these low clouds may persist until mid afternoon. Elsewhere, a backdoor cold front has just pushed into northeast NM per cumulus on visible satellite imagery. Storms are still expected to initiate along the boundary this afternoon as it continues to slide southward across NE NM. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are a concern with any storm that develops. Additional storms are expected across northeast NM behind the front this evening as storms roll off the Sangre de Cristo Mtns in CO. Meanwhile, the front will continue to press south and westward through the plains. Strong gap wind are expected to develop at KABQ between 06-09Z Mon. An Airport Weather Warning may be needed for gusts near 35kt. Gap winds are not expected to be as strong at KSAF. Low clouds will also fill in across much of eastern NM overnight, with IFR to MVFR cigs. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A backdoor front will slide south and west through the plains tonight before pushing through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain near or shortly after midnight. Low level moisture will spill westward, setting the stage for a wet Monday and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the high terrain each day before shifting southeastward through the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall as well as hail and damaging wind gusts will be a concern, though across far western NM, a mix of wet and dry storms can be expected on Monday afternoon and eve. Storm coverage will decrease on Wednesday, moisture will recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms across the high terrain. Drier air will push in from the west Thursday and Friday, limiting convection further. Meanwhile, temperatures will climb as an upper high builds overhead late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 90 57 88 / 0 10 10 20 Dulce........................... 44 82 44 81 / 5 40 10 40 Cuba............................ 51 81 50 79 / 0 50 20 50 Gallup.......................... 45 86 48 84 / 0 20 20 20 El Morro........................ 50 82 51 78 / 0 20 30 50 Grants.......................... 48 83 49 81 / 0 30 30 60 Quemado......................... 53 85 53 82 / 0 20 20 50 Magdalena....................... 57 83 55 80 / 0 30 30 80 Datil........................... 53 83 51 78 / 0 30 30 70 Reserve......................... 50 91 49 88 / 0 10 10 30 Glenwood........................ 54 96 54 93 / 0 5 5 30 Chama........................... 44 74 43 73 / 5 60 10 60 Los Alamos...................... 56 75 53 74 / 0 60 30 70 Pecos........................... 51 74 51 73 / 5 70 40 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 74 47 75 / 10 80 30 60 Red River....................... 40 63 40 65 / 10 80 30 60 Angel Fire...................... 37 67 37 69 / 10 90 20 60 Taos............................ 46 76 45 77 / 5 70 20 50 Mora............................ 46 68 46 71 / 10 90 30 70 Espanola........................ 54 83 53 82 / 0 60 30 60 Santa Fe........................ 55 77 53 76 / 0 60 30 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 81 54 80 / 0 60 30 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 85 61 84 / 0 40 30 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 87 60 85 / 0 30 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 89 59 87 / 0 30 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 88 61 85 / 0 30 30 40 Belen........................... 58 90 58 88 / 0 20 30 50 Bernalillo...................... 60 88 59 86 / 0 40 30 50 Bosque Farms.................... 57 89 57 87 / 0 30 30 50 Corrales........................ 61 89 59 87 / 0 30 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 59 89 59 87 / 0 20 30 50 Placitas........................ 60 84 59 82 / 0 40 30 50 Rio Rancho...................... 61 87 59 86 / 0 30 30 40 Socorro......................... 64 93 62 89 / 0 30 30 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 79 53 77 / 0 40 30 60 Tijeras......................... 56 81 54 80 / 0 40 30 60 Edgewood........................ 52 79 51 79 / 0 50 30 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 80 49 80 / 5 50 30 70 Clines Corners.................. 51 73 50 73 / 5 60 40 70 Mountainair..................... 53 80 52 78 / 0 50 40 70 Gran Quivira.................... 53 80 52 78 / 0 50 50 80 Carrizozo....................... 59 86 58 83 / 0 40 40 70 Ruidoso......................... 52 77 53 71 / 0 40 40 80 Capulin......................... 49 69 47 74 / 50 70 30 30 Raton........................... 49 74 47 80 / 50 80 20 40 Springer........................ 51 75 49 79 / 30 80 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 49 71 48 73 / 10 70 30 70 Clayton......................... 55 76 55 81 / 40 30 20 10 Roy............................. 53 73 52 76 / 40 60 30 40 Conchas......................... 59 79 58 82 / 30 60 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 57 77 56 79 / 20 60 40 60 Tucumcari....................... 57 77 56 80 / 30 60 50 40 Clovis.......................... 59 77 58 81 / 30 40 60 40 Portales........................ 59 78 57 81 / 30 40 60 50 Fort Sumner..................... 60 80 58 83 / 20 60 60 60 Roswell......................... 64 85 64 85 / 0 30 50 60 Picacho......................... 59 79 57 81 / 5 50 40 80 Elk............................. 54 80 55 80 / 0 30 30 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ214-215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...34