584 FXUS64 KMAF 022323 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 623 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 601 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across areas especially along and east of the Pecos River late this afternoon into this evening. A few storms could become severe and become capable of producing localized damaging wind gusts and large hail. - Rain/storm chances continue through Thursday. A few strong to severe storms may be possible each afternoon through mid-week. Currently, damaging winds look to be the main concern. - Much warmer temperatures arrive Friday with many locations expected to reach the triple digits this weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 An upper-level shortwave trough located across southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico this afternoon will translate eastward toward southeast New Mexico and west Texas late this afternoon into this evening. Deep layer moisture and ascent ahead of this feature will increase across our region through the evening hours, especially over locations along and east of the Pecos River. Scattered to locally numerous showers and thunderstorms are subsequently expected to develop through the evening hours, with the best rain chances (40-60%) highlighted over portions of southeast New Mexico, the Trans Pecos, and Permian Basin. Effective bulk shear is forecast to increase to 35-45 kt with the approach of the shortwave trough this afternoon/evening, while CAPE values increase to 1500-3000 J/KG over these areas. The combination of the shear and buoyancy will favor the potential for a few severe storms east of the Pecos River this afternoon into this evening, with localized damaging wind gusts and quarter size hail possible with a few of the stronger cells. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will linger into the evening/night-time hours over the Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos region as the shortwave trough progresses eastward over these locations. A drier zonal flow aloft looks to take shape across much of our area on Tuesday. A dry line should advance into the central/eastern Permian Basin by late Tuesday afternoon, before a cold front pushes into southeast New Mexico and portions of west Texas Tuesday evening/night. Isolated showers and storms (~20%) may develop east of the dryline over the eastern Basin late Tuesday afternoon, with a lingering low (20-30%) chance of storms may continue into Tuesday evening over these areas along the advancing boundary. Lows tonight will range in the 60s and 70s over most areas, while highs on Tuesday should reach into the 90s for most (except 80s in the mountains and up to 100-105 degrees along the Rio Grande). Cooler low temperatures in the mid to upper 50s are anticipated over portions of southeast New Mexico and the northern Permian Basin behind the front Tuesday night, while lows elsewhere otherwise continue to range in the 60s and 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 254 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Cooler temperatures kick off the long-term period as the cold front stalls within the region. Wednesday high temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 70s to mid 80s for areas north of Interstate 10, while locations south of the interstate in the mid 80s to 90s. Guidance has been in good agreement with the frontal boundary stalling in the higher terrain through Thursday. The boundary will also bring consistent low to medium (20-50%) rain/storm chances regionwide during this timeframe with the greatest chances in the Davis Mountains. Severe concerns for Wednesday and Thursday remain low. Similar severe weather setups compared with Monday and Tuesday look to be in store. Forecast soundings depict "inverted-V" profiles, along with weak shear, signaling a damaging wind threat for the strongest storms. Another concern to consider will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Guidance also portrays high Precipitable Water (PWAT) values ranging from 1.1 to 1.5 inches nearly exceeding the daily maximum amount per SPC climatology. These high PWATs indicate the potential for heavy rainfall which could lead to certain areas receiving flash flooding. Storm motions appear to not be too slow, mitigating the threat of flash flooding. Storm coverage will remain scattered to isolated both of these days. In addition to the storm chances, breezy to windy conditions look favorable on Thursday through Thursday night across the region due to being in the transitionary position between a developing low pressure system and a surface high pressure system. High temperatures are forecasted to be a touch warmer on Thursday as geopotential thicknesses increase. The precipitation chances quickly diminish heading into Friday afternoon as upper-level ridging begins to take place. This will allow much warmer high temperatures to return this weekend with widespread temperatures reaching the mid 90s to lower triple digits. Triple digit temperatures expand regionwide by Sunday, increasing heat risk concerns. Lamberson && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 601 PM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved east of CNM and PEQ. FST, INK, HOB, and MAF may have brief impacts from this activity over the next couple hours. Light and southerly winds will be predominant overnight before gradually becoming a bit stronger and more westerly tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 70 93 60 81 / 50 20 20 10 Carlsbad 67 94 63 82 / 30 0 10 10 Dryden 73 99 73 91 / 50 10 10 20 Fort Stockton 69 95 66 85 / 60 0 10 40 Guadalupe Pass 63 86 59 77 / 20 0 0 10 Hobbs 64 89 57 80 / 40 0 10 10 Marfa 61 89 59 85 / 30 0 0 30 Midland Intl Airport 70 94 62 82 / 50 0 10 10 Odessa 69 93 61 81 / 50 0 10 10 Wink 68 96 64 84 / 40 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...21 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...91