215
FXUS64 KEPZ 221723
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1023 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1023 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

 - Near-record warmth this week, lowland highs in the lower to
   mid seventies.

 - Increasing clouds midweek with low chance of rain showers west
   of the Continental Divide.

 - Cooler temperatures, closer to normal, arrive next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1023 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Models start out in good agreement with upper ridge shifting east,
a fairly potent upper low moving toward the West Coast and flow
over the area becoming southwest. This will keep temperatures well
above normal with some more records likely. There will be some
increased mid/high clouds moving in starting Wed which will have
some effects on temperatures. There will also be some increase in
dew points at the surface which will help overnight lows from
falling off as much as they have recently. There will be some low
precip chances, mainly over the Gila region Wed into Thu. NBM PoPs
were up over 50 percent but looking at latest ensemble means and
NBM 5.0, these chances seemed high and did taper off some but kept
low chance PoPs in for NW Grant county with lesser chances east
and south.

As we head into the weekend, models start to diverge. The
differences come from how the Pacific storm system progresses. EC
is progressive and opens up system and puts the area in northwest
flow with a fairly potent back door cold front. The GFS cuts off
the low again off the southern CA coast and keeps the area in SW
flow with some subtropical moisture moving up over the area while
pushing through a weaker cold front than the EC. Each models
ensemble mean supports the deterministic so it`s definitely a low
confidence forecast. Current thinking though is how things have
developed recently, the cutoff somewhere off CA is more likely.
NBM temps seem to support this, but PoPs again seemed awful high
with chance across the area. Did taper these down a little bit.
Temperatures either way do fall back at least to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

P6SM SKC-FEW250 through period with light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1023 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Very warm temperatures continue through much of the work week. Low
RH`s in the teens will start to rise going into Wed and moreso Thu
as some low level moisture moves in with flow turning southwest.
There will be some light precipitation, mainly over the Gila
region Wed/Thu but think any total precip totals will be under a
quarter inch, likely under a tenth of an inch. Some cooler
temperatures arrive going into the weekend as a cold front pushes
through. Vent rates will be poor over the lowlands with fair to
good in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  44  77  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            49  75  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               37  72  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               36  73  38  72 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               38  54  40  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    41  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              43  67  47  62 /   0   0   0  20
Deming                   34  74  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                33  74  38  66 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       41  75  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                32  76  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             39  80  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               40  71  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   36  77  38  75 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             37  74  39  72 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           41  74  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            31  72  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    36  74  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 38  75  40  71 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                41  73  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  35  70  37  67 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                32  67  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 30  64  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  31  67  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                41  71  43  66 /   0   0   0  10
Spaceport                33  71  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             20  67  24  61 /   0   0   0  20
Hurley                   35  71  39  65 /   0   0   0  10
Cliff                    25  74  30  68 /   0   0  10  20
Mule Creek               23  72  29  63 /   0   0  10  30
Faywood                  37  70  41  65 /   0   0   0  10
Animas                   32  76  36  68 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  32  74  36  68 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           35  75  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               47  71  49  65 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz