121
FXUS64 KEPZ 022346
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
546 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
into the early evening hours, with the best coverage likely
over the Sacramento Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms will
diminish this evening.
- Temperatures will steadily climb through the week, with highs
in the lower deserts climbing above 100 degrees again before
the weekend. Temperatures in El Paso and the Lower Valley
could top 105 degrees over the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Although far from a drought-buster, a very welcome rainfall came
through the area in a few rounds overnight and this morning. Storm
total precipitation amounts matched up well with expectations,
with the Las Cruces area coming up short (mostly under 0.10
inches).
That Baja low is currently over the Four Corners, with southwest
flow continuing over most of our area. There are still a few
embedded shortwave troughs, but mid-level drying is evident on
water vapor imagery, inhibiting coverage. Expect we`ll see storms
ramp up over the Sacramento Mountains in the next couple of hours,
with a slight uptick in coverage across the lowlands, especially
east of the Continental Divide.
Precip chances will diminish sharply tonight as the upper low
pulls further north of the area.
A weak shortwave trough will graze northern New Mexico Tuesday
afternoon, and could spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm over
northern areas, especially the Black Range or northern Sacramento
Mountains. The same applies to Wednesday as a secondary upper low
lifts north of the Four Corners as an open trough. A weak easterly
push Tuesday night will try to boost low level moisture east of
the Rio Grande, and that will get additional backing Wednesday
evening. There`s a slight chance of a stray convective shower or
thunderstorm sneaking into Otero or Hudspeth County, with
Wednesday night most favored as that secondary upper low-turned
open trough will be passing by to our north. Overall though, most
areas will be dry through the week ahead.
Temperatures will slowly ramp up through the period, steepening
Thursday and Friday as southwest flow scours out any leftover low
level moisture, and the subtropical ridge begins building across
northern Mexico and south Texas.
Ensembles continue to trend warmer, with the NBM 25th to 75th
percentile spread for MaxTs at ELP now 105/108 for Saturday, and
106/109 for Sunday. There`s a good chance we`ll exceed Heat
Advisory Criteria, and may flirt with warning criteria as well.
An incoming shortwave trough should flatten out the ridge a bit
early next week, shaving a few degrees off our highs, but we very
well could stay at or above 100 at ELP (for afternoon highs) well
into next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Isolated shower activity dissipates by 02z with brief downpours
possible, most likely at KDMN and KLRU. Mainly SKC prevails for
the rest of the night and tomorrow as dry air moves in. Breezy
W-SW winds continue this evening with gusts to around 25kts,
subsiding overnight. Occasional gusts return for all terminals
tomorrow afternoon.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 2 2025
Another round of showers and thunderstorms, with localized heavy
downpours, will work into the Sacramento Mountains this afternoon,
while widely scattered thunderstorms will develop across the low-
lands, mainly east of the Divide. Thunderstorms will diminish
quickly after dark.
The wetting rainfall will diminish fire weather concerns through
the week. Weak disturbances moving through the central Rockies
could spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm over the higher
terrain Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon, and we`ll see some higher
humidity push west towards the Rio Grande Tuesday and Wednesday.
But high temperatures will climb to around 10 degrees above
normal by the end of the week, and afternoon RH values will
return to the single digits and lower 10s Thursday or Friday, as
low level southwest flow scours out any moisture incursions from
the east. The winds will remain relatively light, however.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 93 70 97 / 30 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 63 88 61 90 / 20 0 0 10
Las Cruces 61 89 64 92 / 30 0 0 0
Alamogordo 59 88 62 91 / 30 0 0 10
Cloudcroft 45 67 46 68 / 50 10 10 20
Truth or Consequences 63 89 64 90 / 10 10 10 10
Silver City 54 82 57 84 / 10 10 10 10
Deming 61 91 64 94 / 30 0 0 0
Lordsburg 57 87 61 90 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 68 90 70 94 / 30 0 0 0
Dell City 64 93 64 90 / 20 0 0 10
Fort Hancock 68 95 66 99 / 20 0 0 10
Loma Linda 60 85 62 88 / 30 0 0 10
Fabens 67 93 66 97 / 30 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 64 89 66 92 / 30 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 67 90 69 93 / 30 0 0 10
Jornada Range 57 90 61 91 / 30 0 0 10
Hatch 60 92 64 94 / 20 0 0 10
Columbus 65 91 68 95 / 40 0 0 0
Orogrande 62 88 65 91 / 30 0 0 10
Mayhill 50 80 48 78 / 40 10 10 30
Mescalero 48 77 50 79 / 50 20 10 20
Timberon 45 76 47 76 / 50 10 10 10
Winston 49 80 50 81 / 10 30 30 10
Hillsboro 56 88 58 89 / 10 10 10 10
Spaceport 55 88 59 90 / 20 10 10 10
Lake Roberts 45 84 49 84 / 10 10 10 10
Hurley 54 85 57 87 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 52 88 59 90 / 10 10 10 0
Mule Creek 49 83 51 85 / 10 10 10 0
Faywood 56 85 59 86 / 20 0 0 10
Animas 59 88 61 91 / 20 0 0 0
Hachita 59 87 61 91 / 20 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 58 87 59 90 / 10 0 0 0
Cloverdale 58 81 60 83 / 30 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...39-Aronson