<pre>518
FXUS64 KEPZ 220443
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1043 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

 - Hot temperatures this week, with most of the lowlands above
   100 degrees. The warmest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday,
   with widespread Heat Advisories in effect.

 - Very dry early this week before some moisture gives the high
   terrain a slight chance of thunderstorms mid week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Broad subtropical high has drifted east over the past few days,
now almost directly over northern Chihuahua. Moisture continues to
run quite low, with this evening`s 00Z sounding at KEPZ only
recording 0.52" of precipitable water. No rain chances through at
least next Tuesday because of this lack of moisture.

Main headline over the next several days will be heat.
Subtropical high centered directly overhead the next couple days
will lead to very hot conditions. Lowland temperatures will reach
or surpass 100 degrees each afternoon and look to stay that way
through the week ahead. The hottest days will be Tuesday-
Wednesday, with the Rio Grande Valley (and most of the lowland
I-10/I-25/US-54 corridors reaching 104-108 degrees. While this is
typical for late June (5 to 10 degrees above normal), it`s still
impactful heat. Heat Advisories have been issued for the majority
of Southern New Mexico and Far West Texas through Wednesday. Heat
Advisories may eventually need to be extended into
Thursday/Friday, particularly for El Paso and the lower Rio
Grande Valley.

Shortwaves (along with stronger flow) moving across the Central
Rockies midweek will flatten the subtropical high and nudge it
southward late this week. This should allow temperatures to
"cool" a few degrees, though still likely above 100 degrees for El
Paso and the Rio Grande Valley. Slight return flow in moisture
will also allow for the return of thunderstorm chances Thursday-
Friday. Currently, this looks to be mostly limited to the high
terrain (Black Range, Sacramento Mountains), with most of the
lowlands only seeing isolated (20-30%) action. Strong west flow
aloft looks to scour out moisture next weekend and resume the
pattern of dry and hot (but near normal) weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VMC through forecast period under dry, west flow. Skies SKC-
FEW250 overnight with surface winds 270-320 at 5 to 10 knots.
Clear skies and unlimited visibility again on Monday, with a few
afternoon gusts to 25 knots out of the WNW across SW NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Dry and hot conditions through the coming week ahead will keep
fire conditions elevated, as humidity and fuel moisture decrease.
Above normal temperatures will continue through this entire
period. ERCs are at or exceeding the 90th percentile (zone 113
should reach this level by mid week), and are expected to persist
for the week. No significant winds are expected through Friday.
However the long range forecast does show Saturday/Sunday winds
becoming breezy and pushing fire conditions to near critical.

Min RH: Lowlands...5-10% through Wednesday, then 10-16% Thursday
and Friday. Mountains...5-12% through Wednesday, then 15-25%
Thursday and Friday. Vent rates very good-excellent through
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 105  77 106 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69 101  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               68 103  70 104 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               69 102  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               53  81  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    68 103  72 104 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  96  65  99 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67 105  69 107 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                64 100  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       74 104  75 105 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                68 104  68 105 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             73 106  75 108 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               70  97  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   72 106  73 107 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             70 103  71 104 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           76 103  78 104 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            67 102  70 104 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    66 107  70 107 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 73 105  74 106 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67 101  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  92  59  95 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                57  92  58  94 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 56  89  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  58  96  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                66 102  70 102 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                63 102  67 104 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             55  97  59 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   62  99  66 102 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    60 101  64 104 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               58  97  63 100 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  99  68 101 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   65 101  69 103 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  65 101  68 103 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           67 102  70 103 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               64  96  66  98 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for
     Eastern/Central El Paso County-Northern Hudspeth
     Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El
     Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern
     Hudspeth County-Salt Basin-Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
     Western El Paso County.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Eastern/Central
     El Paso County-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western
     Hudspeth Counties-Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth
     County-Western El Paso County.

NM...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for East
     Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-Eastern Black Range
     Foothills-Lowlands of the Bootheel-Northern Dona Ana County-
     Otero Mesa-Sierra County Lakes-Southeast Tularosa Basin-
     Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southern Gila
     Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River
     Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Upper Gila River
     Valley-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for Northern Dona Ana
     County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest
     Desert/Mimbres Basin.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt</pre>