570
FXUS64 KEPZ 180503
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1003 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 926 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Dry conditions this week ahead with no rain chances through
   Tuesday.

 - Record warm temperatures Thursday through much of next week
   with high temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.

 - Increasing clouds Tuesday and Wednesday. Slight chance of
   showers Gila/Black Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 926 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

A change in the weather may be on the way, but not until after
Christmas. Currently a dry northwest flow aloft will keep us dry
with little in the way for clouds. High temperatures for Thursday
and Friday will be running around 15 degrees above average. For
the weekend, a zonal flow (west to east) will develop across New
Mexico that will continue our warm dry ways with record and near
record high temperatures running 15 to 20 degrees above average.
On Sunday a cold front will be approaching the region from the
east, but with the strong zonal flow the front will not be able
to push over the mountains to our east, so the warm weather will
continue. For Monday and Tuesday, an upper level ridge will
strengthen over northern Mexico and then push into south Texas.
This will slowly turn our upper level flow from zonal to more of
a southwest flow. Initially this southwest flow will be warm and
dry, through Christmas day with high temperatures still near
record levels. A little moisture may get caught up in the
southwest flow an bring some rain chances to Arizona on Tuesday
and Wednesday, and a few stray light rain showers may come across
the border into the Gila Region on southwest New Mexico, but
overall things are looking dry and warm through Christmas.
Looking just beyond the forecast period, previous runs of the
deterministic GFS and ECMWF has an upper level trough to our west
steering some moisture and precipitation chances into the region
for the weekend after Christmas, but the current runs of the
extended models are backing off on this and keeping the moisture
and precipitation chances mainly in Arizona. Will we finish
December with zero in the rain gauge for the month? We will see.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 926 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Ceiling tonight
will be unlimited and those clear skies will continue on through
the day on Thursday. The generally west winds tonight will
continue into the day on Thursday, but should be a little lighter
than we saw on Wednesday. Thursday is looking like a great day to
fly.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

Little or no fire weather concerns as we continue under the dry
west/northwest flow aloft. Very warm (near-record) temperatures
expected into mid portion of next week, with high temps 10-15
degrees above normal. Attendant lower min RHs, but fuel moisture
remains somewhat elevated, and we are not expecting any significant
winds through the period.

Min RH: Lowlands 13-20% through Tuesday. Mountains 15-25% through
Tuesday. Vent rates poor-fair through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  42  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69  39  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               67  37  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67  36  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               51  35  53  38 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    67  40  72  43 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  41  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   72  37  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                69  36  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       70  44  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                71  32  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             74  39  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               65  42  65  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   72  38  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  38  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           69  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            67  35  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  36  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 72  40  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  36  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  65  38  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                61  36  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 61  33  61  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  64  33  71  38 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                67  42  76  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                67  34  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             67  36  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   68  38  72  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    72  34  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               69  35  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  67  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   72  39  76  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  70  36  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           73  40  78  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               68  46  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice