529 FXUS65 KABQ 090010 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 610 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 541 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 - A few severe storms will produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in northeast and east central New Mexico this evening. - Moderate risk of burn scar flash flooding Monday increases to high on Tuesday. There will also be a low risk of urban flash flooding each afternoon. A few storms may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts in central and eastern New Mexico Monday afternoon. - Temperatures will warm to the hottest values of the season thus far late next week, creating moderate heat risk in most lower elevation locations. && .UPDATE... Issued at 610 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 With strong to severe storms across De Baca and northern Chaves County added isolated to scattered PoPs to these two zones to account for this activity through this evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for eastern NM counties until 10 PM MDT. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A backdoor cold front stretched from south of Raton to south of Clayton as of this writing. Storms have developed along the front, but the severe weather has thus far stayed east of the state line. Additional storms have developed ahead of the front and will continue to move eastward. All storms are capable of severe weather this afternoon and evening, and we will be closely watching the areas where the front collides with ongoing storms ahead of the front. Large hail and damaging winds the main threats, however, a tornado cannot be ruled out, particularly if the storm rides the frontal boundary for an extended amount of time. In addition to storms along and just ahead of the boundary, a secondary round of thunderstorms are expected across northeast NM this evening as storms roll southeastward off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in Colorado. Severe weather isn`t as likely with this second round of storms as they should be elevated behind the front and mid level lapse rates won`t be as steep, but can`t rule it out altogether. Any storms will help propel the front south and west through the plains through the evening, and then westward through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain around or shortly after midnight. Gusty canyon winds are expected in the Albuquerque Metro, with gusts between 30 and 40 mph likely. Gap winds will not be as strong in the Santa Fe Metro. Low level moisture will spill westward to at least the ContDvd by mid morning Monday, setting the stage for an active Monday. Showers and thunderstorms should erupt over the high terrain by early afternoon Monday. The greatest storm coverage will be across the Northern Mountains. Here, modest instability combined with terrain influences and PWATs between 0.75 and 1 inch (or ~2 stdev above normal) will allow for strong storms containing hail and heavy rainfall. Greatest concern exists over the Hermit`s Peak Calf Canyon burn scar. With rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour, heavy runoff may quickly lead to flash flooding within and downstream of the burn scar. A Flood Watch has been issued to account for this potential. Models are more consistent now showing storms rolling off the Sangre de Cristos and elsewhere along the Central Mountain Chain toward the southeast across the plains Monday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible with any storm. Eventually, storms should merge into an MCS across the eastern plains before moving into Texas. All-in-all, a large area of central and eastern NM will be favored for both heavy rainfall and severe weather. West of the Central Mountain Chain, storms won`t be quite as numerous, but outflow boundary collisions from storms over the Northern Mountains should allow for a few strong to severe storms, with heavy rainfall from the Santa Fe Metro southward to Albuquerque. Farther west, particularly along and west of the ContDvd, a mix of wet and dry storms are expected. Models continue to hint at an MCV developing due to the MCS. This circulation may keep at least isolated showers and thunderstorms persisting through the overnight hours Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 On Tuesday, the upper low that is over the Pacific today will finally cross NM as an open trough. Weak ascent from this system combined with abundant moisture still in place will allow for another round of showers and thunderstorms to develop over the high terrain. Pending how much rainfall HPCC receives on Monday, another Flood Watch may be needed for Tuesday for that area as well as the burn scars around Ruidoso. Heavy rainfall is possible with nearly any storm, but severe weather should be limited to areas across south central and southeast NM where significant instability will be. However, any remnant boundaries from Monday`s convection and/or the placement of the MCV could locally enhance storms elsewhere. The trough will shift eastward on Tuesday night, and less storm coverage is expected for Wednesday. However, moisture will recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms favoring the high terrain. Drier air will push in from the west on Thursday and Friday, limiting storm coverage a little more each day. If storms develop, they will favor the Sangre de Cristo and South Central Mountains before shifting off toward the southeast. With less storm coverage and the upper high building over the area, temperatures will climb. Minor to moderate heat risk impacts are expected by Friday across the Rio Grande Valley, before expanding across much of western NM on Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Strong to severe storms across the eastern plains and West Texas with large hail and damaging wind gusts could impact KTCC through mid this evening. Meanwhile, virga is bringing some erratic gusty winds to KGUP, KAEG, and KABQ currently so included a TEMPO to account for this through mid this evening. Storms across northeast NM and West Texas will push a backdoor front through eastern NM later this evening and through the gaps of the central mountain chain into KSAF and KABQ at around 06Z. Moderate probabilities for east wind gusts to reach airport weather warning criteria at KABQ early tomorrow morning. Upslope flow and higher moisture behind the backdoor front will result in low clouds and MVFR conditions along the east slopes of the central mountain chain, including KLVS, and east central and southeast NM, including KROW. Guidance keeps low clouds just above MVFR conditions at KTCC so reflected this in the TAF. Higher moisture behind the backdoor front along and east of the Continental Divide will allow showers and storms to develop across the higher terrain midday filling into lower elevation TAF sites across central and eastern NM late Monday afternoon and Monday evening. Storms will be capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts. Drier virga showers could bring gusty and erratic wind gusts to KGUP Monday afternoon as well. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM MDT Sun Jun 8 2025 A backdoor front will slide south and west through the plains tonight before pushing through the gaps of the Central Mountain Chain near or shortly after midnight. Low level moisture will spill westward, setting the stage for a wet Monday and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will erupt over the high terrain each day before shifting southeastward through the afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall as well as hail and damaging wind gusts will be a concern, though across far western NM, a mix of wet and dry storms can be expected on Monday afternoon and eve. Storm coverage will decrease on Wednesday, moisture will recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms across the high terrain. Drier air will push in from the west Thursday and Friday, limiting convection further. Meanwhile, temperatures will climb as an upper high builds overhead late in the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 56 90 57 88 / 0 10 10 20 Dulce........................... 44 82 44 81 / 0 40 10 40 Cuba............................ 51 81 50 79 / 0 50 20 50 Gallup.......................... 45 86 48 84 / 5 20 20 20 El Morro........................ 50 82 51 78 / 0 20 30 50 Grants.......................... 48 83 49 81 / 0 30 30 60 Quemado......................... 53 85 53 82 / 0 20 20 50 Magdalena....................... 57 83 55 80 / 0 30 30 80 Datil........................... 53 83 51 78 / 0 30 30 70 Reserve......................... 50 91 49 88 / 0 10 10 30 Glenwood........................ 54 96 54 93 / 0 5 5 30 Chama........................... 44 74 43 73 / 5 60 10 60 Los Alamos...................... 56 75 53 74 / 0 60 30 70 Pecos........................... 51 74 51 73 / 5 70 40 80 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 74 47 75 / 10 80 30 60 Red River....................... 40 63 40 65 / 20 80 30 60 Angel Fire...................... 37 67 37 69 / 10 90 20 60 Taos............................ 46 76 45 77 / 5 70 20 50 Mora............................ 46 68 46 71 / 5 90 30 70 Espanola........................ 54 83 53 82 / 0 60 30 60 Santa Fe........................ 55 77 53 76 / 0 60 30 70 Santa Fe Airport................ 54 81 54 80 / 0 60 30 60 Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 85 61 84 / 0 40 30 50 Albuquerque Heights............. 64 87 60 85 / 0 30 30 40 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 89 59 87 / 0 30 30 40 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 62 88 61 85 / 0 30 30 40 Belen........................... 58 90 58 88 / 0 20 30 50 Bernalillo...................... 60 88 59 86 / 0 40 30 50 Bosque Farms.................... 57 89 57 87 / 0 30 30 50 Corrales........................ 61 89 59 87 / 0 30 30 40 Los Lunas....................... 59 89 59 87 / 0 20 30 50 Placitas........................ 60 84 59 82 / 0 40 30 50 Rio Rancho...................... 61 87 59 86 / 0 30 30 40 Socorro......................... 64 93 62 89 / 0 30 30 60 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 54 79 53 77 / 0 40 30 60 Tijeras......................... 56 81 54 80 / 0 40 30 60 Edgewood........................ 52 79 51 79 / 0 50 30 70 Moriarty/Estancia............... 51 80 49 80 / 0 50 30 70 Clines Corners.................. 51 73 50 73 / 5 60 40 70 Mountainair..................... 53 80 52 78 / 0 50 40 70 Gran Quivira.................... 53 80 52 78 / 0 50 50 80 Carrizozo....................... 59 86 58 83 / 0 40 40 70 Ruidoso......................... 52 77 53 71 / 0 40 40 80 Capulin......................... 49 69 47 74 / 50 70 30 30 Raton........................... 49 74 47 80 / 30 80 20 40 Springer........................ 51 75 49 79 / 30 80 20 50 Las Vegas....................... 49 71 48 73 / 10 70 30 70 Clayton......................... 55 76 55 81 / 40 30 20 10 Roy............................. 53 73 52 76 / 30 60 30 40 Conchas......................... 59 79 58 82 / 30 60 40 50 Santa Rosa...................... 57 77 56 79 / 20 60 40 60 Tucumcari....................... 57 77 56 80 / 30 60 50 40 Clovis.......................... 59 77 58 81 / 30 40 60 40 Portales........................ 59 78 57 81 / 30 40 60 50 Fort Sumner..................... 60 80 58 83 / 30 60 60 60 Roswell......................... 64 85 64 85 / 20 30 50 60 Picacho......................... 59 79 57 81 / 5 50 40 80 Elk............................. 54 80 55 80 / 0 30 30 80 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for NMZ214-215-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...71