422
FXUS64 KEPZ 172334
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
434 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 431 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

 - Dry conditions this week ahead with no rain chances through
   Tuesday.

 - Record warm temperatures Thursday through much of next week
   with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.

 - Increasing clouds Tuesday and Wednesday. Slight chance of
   showers Gila/Black Range.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1125 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

Upper ridge over eastern Pacific will flatten out tonight in
response to very strong jet sweeping across the NW U.S. Resulting
zonal flow lasting through about Monday, resulting in dry forecast
with very few clouds. Temperatures will be near record levels every
day through the weekend and into mid-week next week.

In the short term, very weak short wave far western New Mexico has
brought some cirrus into the area but is quickly dissipating as
it moves into the subsidence over the CWA. Thus don`t expect
cirrus to even become broken today.

Only other feature of note is the long wave trough which
eventually forms over the eastern Pacific early next week. Short
wave dropping into this trough will eventually dig much further
south and develop good southwest flow across the CWA by Tuesday.
Thus expect increasing clouds Tuesday and Wednesday. Areas west of
Deming could see some sprinkles or light showers Tuesday night.
GFS/ECMWF both show some hope of rain chances all areas by next
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 PM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

A dry northwest flow will keep our ceilings unlimited tonight and
through the day on Thursday. We have some generally westerly winds
this afternoon and even a few low end wind gusts at KDMN, the
gusts will drop off and then winds will slow some after sunset,
but the winds should continue out of the west. Those west winds
look to continue through Thursday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1125 AM MST Wed Dec 17 2025

Little or no fire weather concerns as we continue under the dry
west/northwest flow aloft. Very warm (near-record) temperatures
expected into mid portion of next week, with high temps 10-15
degrees above normal. Attendant lower min RHs, but fuel moisture
remains somewhat elevated, and we are not expecting any significant
winds through the period.

Min RH: Lowlands 13-20% through Tuesday. Mountains 15-25% through
Tuesday. Vent rates poor-fair through Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  71  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            69  38  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               68  37  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               68  33  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               52  35  54  38 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    66  40  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              67  41  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   71  36  74  40 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                69  36  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       70  43  72  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                71  32  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             74  38  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               65  41  66  45 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   72  38  74  41 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             69  38  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           70  44  72  48 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            68  27  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    71  33  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 72  40  74  43 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                67  29  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  66  38  68  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                61  36  64  40 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 62  33  62  37 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  65  33  71  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                68  42  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                68  27  71  30 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             68  29  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   68  38  72  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    71  28  74  26 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               69  23  71  24 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  67  42  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   71  38  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  70  36  74  38 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           73  41  79  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               68  45  71  45 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice