606
FXUS64 KEPZ 100442
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1042 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday.
- Chance of thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, but mostly
limited to Otero and Hudspeth Counties.
- Seasonable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, with heat
building Friday through the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Broad weak upper low over northern New Mexico with layered
moisture extending east and west from it. Some of the moisture was
able to form isolated thunderstorms near and just into our
northern CWA Monday evening. Outflow from those storms has rapidly
dropped south and as of late Monday evening extended from about
Deming-Vado-Chaparral and east of Orogrande. Radar velocity data
shows only modest speeds in the 20-30 mph range, although some
sites much further north in Otero County did show gusts of 35-50
mph. This outflow should reach the El Paso metro area within the
next hour. No storms have been able to form on the outflow as its
moving into mostly very dry air. Models all show northerly flow
over much of the area diminishing overnight.
Tuesday and Wednesday...should be our best days for thunderstorms,
as that weak upper trough drops south over the CWA Tuesday and
then gradually lifts out Wednesday. The eastern moisture does move
into much of our area Tuesday, so all areas will see some chance
of thunderstorms, but the best chances are over the mountains and
Rio Grande Valley east. Modest CAPE values and little in the way
of shear, suggest most storms should remain sub-severe. However
high DCAPE values show some severe wind gust potential. Wednesday,
the best chance of thunderstorms will be over the mountains and
east of the RG Valley, as the lifted out trough begins moving
drier air into the CWA from the west. These will be the last days
with seasonable temperatures as....
Thursday through the weekend...heats up strongly. Triple digits
are possible Thursday as eastern Pacific ridge begins Balduin
north and eastward. By Friday and Saturday 500 mb heights over the
CWA approach and then exceed 5900 gpm and reaching as high as
5960 gpm Sunday. Thus another cooker in store and by Saturday
through Monday temps could be surpass Heat Advisory criteria.
Despite this presence of the strong high over us, some residual
moisture remains over the far east, so can`t completely rule our a
storm far eastern CWA, mainly the Sacs.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1035 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025
VFR conditions through 18Z Tuesday with SKC-SCT250. After
18Z...isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop, initially
over the mountains and then migrating to the lowlands after 21Z.
Large outflow dropping down from the north will keep a northerly
wind of 8-12 knots overnight. Thunderstorms redeveloping over the
mountains by 18Z Tuesday and then quickly developing over the
lowlands from 21-00Z. Strong winds look to be the main threat,
with gust potential of 40-50 knots. For TAF sites, KTCS has the
best shot at storms, with the other sites a bit less chance a few
hours later.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jun 9 2025
Moisture via the dry line will try and push west this evening into
the overnight hours supporting moderate to good recoveries, mainly
along and west of the Continental Divide. The dryline will push back
to the east some to about the Rio Grande with single digit min RH
values west of it. East of the boundary, there will be a low to
moderate chance of showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds the
main concern with a low risk for dry lightning, mainly in the
lowlands. Moisture will again retreat back to the west overnight
Tuesday night before heading east again on Wednesday. Once again,
areas east of the boundary will see a chance for thunderstorms
but more isolated than Tuesday. By this weekend, high pressure
will dominate the area leading to hot to very hot conditions with
low afternoon humidity.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be light throughout the period,
topping out around 10 to 15 MPH with some gustiness. Venting will
range good to very good for Tuesday but will range very good to
excellent for the rest of the week into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 70 97 69 98 / 0 20 20 10
Sierra Blanca 63 92 61 92 / 10 30 30 30
Las Cruces 64 92 62 95 / 0 20 20 10
Alamogordo 62 91 61 93 / 20 60 40 30
Cloudcroft 48 68 46 70 / 20 80 40 50
Truth or Consequences 65 90 65 94 / 10 40 20 30
Silver City 58 87 59 90 / 0 30 10 30
Deming 63 96 63 98 / 0 20 10 10
Lordsburg 60 94 62 96 / 0 0 10 10
West El Paso Metro 69 94 70 95 / 0 20 20 10
Dell City 66 92 62 93 / 20 50 30 30
Fort Hancock 67 100 67 99 / 0 30 20 20
Loma Linda 64 89 62 89 / 0 30 30 20
Fabens 67 98 67 98 / 0 20 20 10
Santa Teresa 65 93 64 95 / 0 20 20 10
White Sands HQ 69 92 68 95 / 10 30 30 20
Jornada Range 61 92 61 94 / 10 40 20 20
Hatch 62 94 62 97 / 10 40 20 20
Columbus 67 97 66 98 / 0 0 10 10
Orogrande 65 91 63 92 / 10 40 30 20
Mayhill 51 77 50 80 / 30 70 40 60
Mescalero 51 79 50 81 / 30 70 40 50
Timberon 51 77 49 78 / 20 70 40 50
Winston 51 82 51 86 / 10 60 20 40
Hillsboro 60 89 59 92 / 10 40 10 40
Spaceport 59 90 59 93 / 10 40 20 20
Lake Roberts 54 87 54 90 / 10 40 10 40
Hurley 57 90 58 93 / 0 20 10 20
Cliff 58 93 59 97 / 0 20 10 20
Mule Creek 57 90 58 93 / 0 10 10 10
Faywood 61 88 60 91 / 0 30 10 20
Animas 61 95 63 97 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 60 94 61 96 / 0 0 10 10
Antelope Wells 62 94 63 96 / 0 0 10 0
Cloverdale 61 88 62 91 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...17-Hefner