149
FXUS61 KOKX 050740
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
340 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slowly approach the area thru Fri, and reach
the area on Saturday. A series of frontal systems then affect
the region through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The upr ridge begins to break down today. As heights fall, there
will be an opportunity for convection to trigger across the interior
where CIN is eroded. The NAM and HRRR suggest a narrow corridor of
tstm development, but keep this pcpn N of the cwa. It looks like
initiation may be aided by terrain. Storm motion is extremely slow,
so where storms do develop, not a lot of progression expected.
Additional convection developing on outflow may be a wildcard
and could be a reason activity gets into the cwa. NBM pops were
used which keeps the cwa dry except for nwrn Orange into nrn
Putnam. It would not be surprising to see something get into
nrn Fairfield/New Haven, but will allow for mesoscale analysis
today before increasing pops. The hottest day of the week is
still expected with may areas around 90 interior and wrn zones.

After 00Z, initiation chances tank with the loss of daytime heating,
and any ongoing cells should rain themselves out and the rest
of the cwa should remain dry overnight. Low temps abv normal
with the NBM followed.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Falling heights and upstream convection on Fri will likely
trigger tstm development by aftn/eve across the cwa along a
developing trof/outflow. This pseudo cold front should bring
convection to the nwrn 1/2 of the cwa, meeting resistance as
the activity outruns the upr support and reaches the more stable
cstl areas. Activity diminishes Fri ngt as the airmass
stabilizes once again, then the main cold front gets here on Sat
with shwrs and tstms across the area. Pops for the entire cwa
Sat. Heights will be lower, and cloud cover should also help to
keep temps cooler and reduce the amount of sb instability. It
should also feel humid with the onshore flow continuing. Highs
per the NBM mainly 80s on Fri and 70s on Sat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are in pretty good agreement with a weak h5 trough shifting
through the area Sunday night with a deeper, but weakening trough
axis moving in on Wednesday. Surface high pressure should dominate
during Sunday, then a series weak surface boundaries will probably
be nearby or pass through Sunday night through Monday night. Most of
the time should be dry, but a 20-30% chance of showers exists
through this time. A better chance of showers and possible
thunderstorms will be during Tuesday and Tuesday night with the
approach of aforementioned h5 trough, upper jet dynamics, and
surface cold front. 60% chance of rainfall during the afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms could be strong given the potential CAPE and
shear, but too early to have any confidence in severe wx potential.
Wednesday would then be dry in the morning with high pressure
building in behind the departing cold front. Cannot rule out an
afternoon shower with the h5 trough shifting in. NBM looked good for
temperatures through the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure remains offshore today.

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. Can`t rule
out a shower or thunderstorm tonight at KSWF, but not enough
confidence to include in TAF at this time.

SW winds under 10kt through the morning push, followed by
sea breezes late morning/early afternoon. Winds increase closer
to 10kt in the afternoon, but a little stronger for KLGA and
KJFK. Winds become lighter this evening, veering more SW.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Sea breeze timing may be off by 1-2 hours. Sea breeze
potentially meanders within a few miles of KEWR for a few hours
this afternoon - winds could potentially prevail SW, SE or
vary between the two directions during this time. KTEB
potentially shifts more southerly for a few hours this
afternoon.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Late tonight: VFR.

Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.
Possible brief MVFR/IFR east of NYC terminals early Friday
morning in fog/stratus.

Friday night: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms.
Possible brief MVFR/IFR east of NYC terminals early Friday
morning in fog/stratus.

Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of
tstms. Patchy fog early Saturday.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Monday: Sub-VFR possible, mainly in the morning. Showers possible at
any point in the day.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecast, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas are expected to stay blw sca lvls thru the day
Fri. Seas may approach 5 ft on the ocean late Fri ngt and Sat
with a frontal sys impacting the waters. Seas subside below 5
feet Saturday night, with sub-advisory conditions for the rest
of the forecast period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected thru Sat, although
tstms could produce locally hvy rain Fri and possibly Sat.

Showers and thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night may produce at
least minor nuisance flooding. Low confidence at this time regarding
potential impacts this far ahead in time.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
There is a moderate rip current risk thru Fri with waves
generally in the 2-3 ft range but winds mainly aob 10kt.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for CTZ005>012.
NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JMC/JC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/JC
HYDROLOGY...JMC/JC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...