750 FXUS61 KOKX 091146 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 746 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary near the region through Thursday. The front should then push south of the area Friday into Saturday. A weak frontal system may pass to the north Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Most shower activity early this morning has remained to our north with dry conditions to start the day. A more well defined shortwave trough attempts to dig down across the Great Lakes this afternoon and evening. There may be some subtle pieces of energy ahead of the main trough this afternoon and early evening. Sea breeze convergence along with the stalled front will be the main trigger for any afternoon convection. Coverage of showers/storms looks less compared to Tuesday afternoon and evening. The convective focus looks most likely south of the area across the Middle Atlantic where an MCV will pass through late in the day and early evening. This is also where SPC has focused the higher severe thunderstorm risk (slight). PWATs may end up a bit lower than recent days ranging from 1.75-2.00 inches, but high enough that any shower/storm that develops will have potential to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall supporting a continued localized flash flood threat. Slight modification to the air mass is anticipated with guidance continuing to signal 850 temps about 1-2C cooler than on Tuesday. Highs today will reach the upper 80s for much of the area with some of the usual warmer locations in NE NJ and NYC metro around 90 degrees. Dew points still look to be in the lower 70s this morning with potential of them mixing out slightly in the afternoon, particularly across NE NJ and NYC metro. The SW flow away from the sea breeze is weak, but there is enough dry air to mix down to allow dew points to fall into the upper 60s. Max heat indices overall should peak in the lower 90s with a few spots briefly hitting 95, mainly in urban NE NJ and parts of the NYC metro. This looks mostly isolated and not widespread enough to warrant the issuance of a heat advisory. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase tonight as the upper trough settles over the northeast. The slight amplification in the flow should help pull up another wave of low pressure along the stalled front over the area. There is also some jet stream support as the region may lie within the right entrance region of a 90-100 kt 250 mb jet streak over northern New England. Showers should increase in coverage late tonight with some embedded thunderstorms possible. The activity will have some movement, limited flooding potential, but still cannot rule out some minor flooding. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Showers may persist early Thursday morning, but the associated weak wave should push east shortly after day break. The upper trough axis will swing across New England the rest of Thursday. The frontal boundary that has been nearly stationary will continue to remain nearby. Some uncertainty in convective coverage in the afternoon and evening, but the threat persists for showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall. WPC has maintained the marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Thursday. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk for a severe thunderstorm as well, with the main threat damaging wind gusts. The upper trough pushes offshore Thursday night. Heights should begin rising into Friday with the stalled front weakening/washing out. The flow aloft is relatively flat, but subtle energy may be enough to develop scattered showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, mainly away from the coast. High temperatures on Thursday are expected to be a bit cooler than recent days with readings in the upper 70s/lower 80s east and lower to middle 80s elsewhere. It should be a bit warmer on Friday with highs in the lower to middle 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... No major changes made to the forecast Saturday through next Tuesday. Most guidance shows a weak ridge building Saturday. Global guidance still varies on solutions Sunday into Monday, but are starting to point to another frontal system at some point during this time frame. Generally southerly flow is expected for most of the long-term period. This should keep dewpoints and atmospheric moisture high and continue chances for daily showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Mainly slight chance POPs east with low-end chance POPs west where daily instability from daytime heating could be stronger. Temperatures through the long-term period will generally be close to just above climatological norms. Highs each day will be in the mid/upper 80s to around 90 in the warmest spots. Lows each night will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s. However, the difference between NBM`s 25th and 75th percentiles for max temperatures is about 15 degrees Saturday through Monday, further highlighting the uncertainty and disagreement among the guidance in the long- term period. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A stationary frontal boundary remains within the region through the TAF period. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, occasional MVFR conditions are possible with showers and thunderstorms at times towards the end of the TAF period. There continues to be much uncertainty with the exact timing of showers and thunderstorms. Overall, these look more probable around and after 00Z Thursday. Winds will be generally S-SW near 5-10 kt for much of the TAF period. Some gusts to near 20 kt will be possible at times. Some terminals will be variable with their wind direction with lighter wind speeds at 5 kts or less. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments likely to refine the timing of showers and thunderstorms which could vary by a few hours compared to TAF. Amendments possible to include wind gusts to near 20 kt if they become more frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... Thursday: Potential MVFR with showers likely and a chance of thunderstorms. IFR possible at times. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. Friday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. Saturday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. Sunday: MVFR or lower possible at times with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly near and northwest of NYC terminals. Otherwise, mainly VFR outside of showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient into the upcoming weekend will bring winds and seas below SCA levels. && .HYDROLOGY... Any shower or thunderstorm today into Thursday has the potential to produce locally heavy downpours. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for excessive rainfall with a continued localized flash flooding threat. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A moderate rip current risk is forecast at all ocean beaches into this evening due to to incoming 3-4 ft/7-8s swell. The moderate risk continues for all but the NYC beaches for on Thursday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...BR/DS AVIATION...JM MARINE...BR/DS HYDROLOGY...DS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...