636 FXUS61 KPHI 090007 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 807 PM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An areas of low pressure moves eastward across Virginia and Delmarva tonight into tomorrow morning. A cold front passes across the region by Tuesday evening. Much warmer and drier weather dominated by high pressure will settle over the area Wednesday through Friday. A cold front may approach the area from the north by early next weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... The front stalled to our south across southeastern Virginia remains nearly stationary. Meanwhile, a new area of low pressure continues to develop across the Ohio River Valley, while to our north, high pressure is centered over Quebec. Over the near term forecast period, conditions will remain quite similar to present as a stable easterly flow is maintained across our area with the high to our north and the developing low pushing to our south as it moves eastward toward Virginia. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop to the north of the front throughout much of the afternoon and evening. Deeper surface-based convection will remain south of the front, which should stay well south and west of our region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will gradually taper off with time by later this evening into the overnight hours tonight as surface ridging builds in from the north and east. It will remain mostly cloudy with a continuing east to northeast flow and lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. The cloud deck will be quite low with the continuing marine influence and there could also be some patchy fog and drizzle around. Little change is expected as we head into the day Monday. The center of the high will have progressed to the east to the Canadian Maritimes but will remain extended over the area with a continuing onshore flow and associated marine stratus deck as a result. This will keep it mostly cloudy with highs once again in the low to mid 70s. While no significant rainfall is expected there may continue to be some spotty light showers and patchy drizzle around. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The weather gets a bit more active again Monday night into Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the west Monday night and moves through the area on Tuesday. This will bring another round of showers and storms through the area...especially overnight Monday night into the first part of Tuesday. Guidance continues to trend a bit faster with the front, which would have most of the rain out by the early to mid-evening. This all said, the instability will be low, which should limit the threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy downpours. SPC has a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather, which makes sense given both instability and shear are meager, but given relatively strong forcing, cannot rule out a strong to severe thunderstorm. Main threat would be damaging wind gusts. QPF amounts during this period should generally range from 0.25-0.75". Lows Monday night should generally be in the upper 50s to low 60s with highs Tuesday generally ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s. Tuesday night should see similar if not slightly cooler overnight lows compared to Monday night as skies start to clear out. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure builds in for Wednesday and Thursday bringing sunshine with dry weather. Temperatures look to get above normal for the end of the week. Highs Wednesday look to be mainly in the low to mid 80s with highs for Thursday and Friday reaching the upper 80s to near 90 for many areas-potentially the first 90 degree day of the year for Philadelphia (first one usually comes in May). Humidity levels will be low Wednesday before starting to creep up a bit on Thursday and especially Friday. As we get into next weekend, a cold front will start to push southward towards the area bringing a return to chances of showers and thunderstorms. At this point the best chance of precipitation looks to be Saturday as there may be an area of low pressure that develops along the front as it may tend to stall near the area, leading to an unsettled weekend. Temperatures for the weekend cool to more seasonable or perhaps even below normal levels. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas... Tonight...Expect all sites to lower to IFR (if they haven`t already) by 05Z. Once that happens, expect prevailing IFR or LIFR through the remainder of the night. There could be some visibility restrictions in BR and FG, especially at KACY. SHRA is possible (20%), but don`t expect it to have any significant impacts on flight category. East winds 5 - 10 kts. Moderate confidence. Monday...IFR conditions initially, improving to MVFR at times, particularly after 18Z. East winds around 5-10 kts. Moderate confidence. Outlook... Monday Night...VFR/MVFR conditions to start, with IFR probable (60- 80%) by daybreak Tuesday with showers moving in. Tuesday...IFR expected with 60-80% chance of showers. Conditions could improve to MVFR or VFR even later in the day. Tuesday Night...Lingering restrictions possible (20-30%) for the first part of the night, but improvement to VFR expected overall. Wednesday through Friday...VFR. No significant weather. && .MARINE... Dense fog has developed from Atlantic City southward. Thus have issued a dense fog advisory in these areas through 18Z. It is possible the fog will expand to include coastal waters further north and the Delaware Bay, but have low confidence of that at this time. Sub Small Craft Advisory conditions continue through Monday. Easterly winds around 10-15 knots through tonight and then diminish slightly for Monday. Generally expect seas around 3 to 4 feet through this period. Outlook... Monday Night through Thursday...No marine headlines expected. Some showers and isolated thunderstorms over the waters on Tuesday. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ452>455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich NEAR TERM...AKL SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons/Hoeflich AVIATION...AKL/Hoeflich/Johnson MARINE...AKL/Hoeflich/Johnson