777 FXUS61 KOKX 021805 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 205 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Another surface trough will track across the area later this afternoon into this evening, otherwise high pressure will build in from the south and west through tonight. High pressure will then be centered along the eastern seaboard on Tuesday, tracking slowly east through midweek. A cold front will slowly approach the area Thursday through Friday, finally passing on Saturday. High pressure builds in on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast mainly on track. Have some more clouds, diurnal cumulus, especially north and west of NYC. However, expect cloud coverage to remain few to sct. Temperatures remain on track with some slight adjustments. Today will be the last day to contend with an upper trough as it works offshore late tonight. Another shortwave on the backside of the trough will drop across the eastern Great Lakes and into the area this afternoon/evening, sending another surface trough across the area. While the airmass is dry, would not be totally surprised to see a brief pop up shower or sprinkle, but confidence is too low to add to the forecast at this time. Expect to see some high based stratocu this afternoon into early this evening with skies at times becoming partly cloudy. Highs today will be in the lower to mid 70s, which is close to normal. Locations along the immediate south shore of LI may not get out of the 60s with a weak onshore southerly flow developing by this afternoon. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s inland and across the Pine Barrens region of LI, with the 50s elsewhere. This is at or just below normal. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... An anomalously warm upper ridge (+2SD) builds across the eastern third of the country bringing a taste of summertime to the area. Highs on Tuesday will generally be in the upper 70s to lower 80s, but for Wednesday warming to around 80 at the coast and the mid to upper 80s across parts of the NYC metro and inland locations. The latter is about 7 to 10 degrees above normal. NBM probabilities for greater than 90 highest across NE NJ Wednesday at around 50 percent. NBM box and whisker plots for max temperature show the deterministic values to still be at or below the 25th percentile. This would lead one to believe that temperatures could be a few degrees warmer, closer to the 50th percentile. However, not seeing much support at this time from MOS guidance. So for the time have stayed the course. Winds during this time will generally be southerly at or below 10 mph. Expect few if any clouds with upper ridging and subsidence across the area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Surface high pressure over the area centered just offshore to the south loses its hold on the region as it moves much farther to the south through Thursday. A ridge aloft Wednesday night also begins to break down, becoming more zonal aloft on Thursday. Despite this, heights remain high, so a warming trend is still expected. Highs on Thursday will push 90 degrees in areas N & W of NYC with low to mid-80s at the coast. The NBM deterministic is lower with high temps than the 25th percentile. The 75th percentile reaches the mid/upper-90s in NE NJ. Stuck closer to the deterministic NBM with this one. A shortwave trough being resolved by most global models should push through in the afternoon with a surface trough increasing cloud cover enough over areas N & W of the city to partially shut off some radiational heating. There is also a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening given the nearby boundary and warmer temps in the interior, but chances aren`t looking overly optimistic. Precip chances increase Friday into Saturday as heights gradually drop aloft from a longwave trough in Canada and a low over the Great Lakes on Friday passes NE of the area on Saturday sending a cold front through the CWA Saturday afternoon/evening. Chance POPs are expected on Friday from showers and thunderstorms with highs in the low/mid-80s, limited at some coastal areas in the 70s. Rain chances may continue into the night with the best chance for showers and thunderstorms due to enhanced lift (and still warm temperatures) with the cold front later on Saturday. This will be the final round of rain with high pressure building into the beginning of next week following the cold frontal passage. There is some timing discrepancy with the models with this front, so have carried slight chance POPs into Saturday night for a slow/weaker cold front scenario. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A weak surface trough moves across early this evening. High pressure then builds in and quickly offshore through Tuesday. VFR conditions remain through the TAF period. Winds near 10 kts or less through the TAF period. Some gusts to 20 kt are possible this afternoon but probably only occasional in frequency. Sea breeze has developed at some terminals with more S-SW flow near 10 kt. Other terminals have W-NW flow. Wind direction is variable to NW flow tonight into early Tuesday. Expecting more sea breezes Tuesday afternoon along with slightly higher wind speeds. All terminals get to more southerly component with winds Tuesday but KSWF likely stays more westerly. Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires may be observed but is expected to impact low level visibility. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible pertaining to the timing of the sea breeze and if gusts become more frequent. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday: VFR. S-SW wind gusts to near 20 kt possible in the afternoon. Tuesday night through Wednesday: VFR. Thursday: Mainly VFR. Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms. Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of tstms. && .MARINE... Expect sub-SCA conditions through Friday as waters will be largely influenced by high pressure and a southerly flow. SCA conditions are forecasted to be met Saturday into Saturday night with an approaching and passing cold front on the ocean waters for waves. All waters also have a chance of nearing SCA gusts during this timeframe. && .HYDROLOGY... There are no hydrologic concerns through the forecast period. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BR/DW NEAR TERM...JM/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...BR AVIATION...JM MARINE...BR/DW HYDROLOGY...BR/DW