428 FXUS61 KPHI 110845 AFDPHI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 445 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system moves into the forecast area Friday and lingers through Saturday. This will result in below normal temperatures as well as some wet weather. The system will move east over the Atlantic on Sunday, allowing high pressure to move into the region and remain in place through most of Monday, providing us with moderating temperatures. A cold front will move through the region later on Tuesday. The will result in below normal temperatures on Wednesday. The region could see a slight warmup on Thursday ahead of the next system to close out the work week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Some light showers are moving through this morning across the area as a weak area of low pressure decays near the Great Lakes. Expecting what is going on now to be the general theme for the morning hours-overcast with occasional showers. For today, with one area of low pressure occluding, another one over the Carolinas will organize and move up the coast. This will result in a cloudy and overcast day with occasional showers in the morning, with more widespread and steady rain for the afternoon and evening as the surface low approaches. The low will be off the Delmarva coast after midnight and will meander there through the rest of the overnight hours. The surface low, while gradually strengthening, won`t be overly strong, which will result in a less impactful system. We will have a decent onshore breeze with gusts up to 30-35 MPH or so. Rainfall amounts will end up ranging from 1-2 inches for the Friday-Saturday period. However, even as the bulk of the rain comes this evening/tonight, flooding concerns are minimal as rates won`t be very impressive. Overall, this system looks to be a breezy beneficial rain. One thing to note is that some snowfall is expected during the morning today and overnight hours tonight as thermal profiles look to be just cold enough to support flakes at the higher elevations. Accumulations up to an inch are expected for the Pocono Plateau, with perhaps a tenth or two at higher points in Northwest NJ. Any snow this morning will change to rain by the mid-morning, and then change back to snow late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Temperatures today will range from 45-55 degrees, with lows in the upper 30s/low to mid 40s tonight, with the exception of the higher elevations where lows will near freezing. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... The coastal low starts heading farther off the coast during the day Saturday and Saturday night, but the upper trough nearby and continuing northeasterly flow likely keeps a few showers around at least on Saturday, probably abating Saturday night. Saturday will also remain breezy and chilly under mostly cloudy skies. Afternoon highs will be in the 40s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s with the Poconos cooling to the low 30s. Additional rainfall around one- quarter inch or less. By Sunday, the system should finally pull far enough away to the north and east to bring mainly dry conditions with even some partial sunshine possible by afternoon...especially over eastern PA. Temperatures will also rebound with highs getting back up into the middle to upper 50s for most with overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Monday may be the nicest day of the long term with high pressure in place and westerly downsloping winds. Highs will be in the 60s for most of us, possibly touching 70 across the Delmarva. A series of cold fronts will cross the region Tuesday into Wednesday. At the moment, we have the first front moving through Tuesday morning and the second one sometime during the day on Wednesday. It doesn`t appear there will be a significant change in airmass behind the first cold front, so high temperatures on Tuesday will still be in the 60s for most of us. We`ll hold the far northwest zones in the 50s. Rainfall chances hold in the 20-30% range. Cooler air will push into the region behind the second drier cold front on Wednesday. Highs will get knocked down into the 50s for most, with some 40s in the Poconos. For Wednesday night, we may have frost/freeze concerns with lows possibly dipping into the 30s. And by this point, the majority of the forecast area, sans LV/Poconos/NW NJ, will be frost/freeze active. No precipitation is expected on Wednesday. Thursday looks to be precipitation free as well with moderating temperatures (but only slightly) spurred on by some mid-level zonal flow. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas. Today...VFR to start as CIGs have been slow to come down, but thinking all sites are down to MVFR CIGs by 11z depending on the site and down to IFR between 09z-13z. IFR conditions will persist through pretty much all of today. Some guidance has CIGs lifting to low-end MVFR for a time during the midday hours, but thinking it will be difficult to shake the low clouds. Rainfall picks up in intensity as the day goes on, reducing visibility down to 3-5 SM at times. Easterly winds expected through the morning hours around 10 kt. Wind gusts 20-25 kt out of the east pick up late this morning, continuing through the rest of the day. Moderate confidence. Tonight...Prevailing IFR likely with low clouds and 2-4 SM visibility. Rain moves through the area overnight. Conditions could go down to LIFR at times as well, but probability of that occurring is low, only around 20%-25%. Northeasterly winds 10-15 kt and gusts 20-25 kt. Moderate confidence in prevailing IFR. Outlook... Saturday...IFR/MVFR in rain and low clouds to start the day. Some improvement is possible late. Saturday Night...sub-VFR at times as some rain showers and low clouds linger. Sunday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. A few passing showers and increased cloud cover possible Monday night into Tuesday. && .MARINE... Started the Small Craft Advisory a few hours early for coastal waters south of Cape May as seas were right around 5 feet. No marine headlines in place elsewhere through 6 AM. For today, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all marine zones as wind gusts out of the east will be around 25-30 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet. For coastal waters north of Little Egg Inlet, a Gale Warning is in effect tonight through Saturday as wind gusts will increase further to 35 kt. Otherwise for tonight, the Small Craft Advisory remains in place for the remaining marine zones as gusts will be a bit lower, around 30 kt. Seas will continue to build overnight, getting to 7-10 feet. Outlook... Saturday...Gale Warning across the northern coastal waters in the morning, subsiding to small craft conditions by late afternoon. SCA for all other marine zones. Seas 8 to 10 feet. Saturday night...Small craft conditions expected to persist with gusts near 25 knots and seas remaining elevated at 5 to 7 feet. Sunday and Sunday night...Winds and seas will continue to diminish Sunday. There still could be some residual SCA conditions in play during the day and into the evening hours. Sub- SCA conditions are expected overnight. Monday...Sub-SCA conditions are expected Monday and most of Monday night. Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions forecasted, though winds may gust to around 20 kts. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Spotty minor coastal flooding possible during the Saturday evening high tide. A full moon tide along with persistent northeasterly winds could result in minor inundation along the coastlines of New Jersey and Delaware. && .PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NJ...None. DE...None. MD...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ430-431. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ450- 451. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ450-451. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ452-453. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ454-455. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kruzdlo/MJL NEAR TERM...Hoeflich SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/MJL LONG TERM...Kruzdlo/MJL AVIATION...Hoeflich/MJL MARINE...Hoeflich/MJL TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...