169
FXUS61 KPHI 090135
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
935 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the Midwest will build towards the Middle
Atlantic region tonight through Friday. After that, a weak front
passes across the area early Saturday and then another front
arrives later Sunday and into early Monday. More high pressure
arrives next Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
With mostly clear skies and nearly calm winds, radiational
cooling conditions have developed away from the urban centers
and temperatures dropped down into the 40s and low 50s already.
Will trend temperatures in the areas a few degrees cooler over
the next several hours, and as a result, will lower overnight
lows by a few degrees in these areas as well.

Otherwise, high pressure gets squeezed out of the area tonight
as a weak surface trough moves into the area through this
evening, and settles across the area tonight through Wednesday.
A weakening cold front will move into the area on Wednesday and
merge with the trough across the area. These features do not
have much moisture associated with them, and the majority of the
energy with the mid-level trough will pass to our north tonight
and Wednesday. However, there could be just enough moisture and
lift for a few showers or sprinkles to occur tonight through
Wednesday across portions of northeast Pennsylvania and northern
New Jersey. Any amounts will only be a hundredth or two at
most. Otherwise, just a few to scattered cumulus and cirrus
clouds can be expected. Winds will remain 5-10 mph through
today, before becoming 5 mph or less, or light and variable/calm
overnight. Winds will increase again out of the west to
northwest during the day Wednesday, with speeds reaching 5-10
mph, with gusts 15-20 mph during the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry weather continues during the short term with high pressure
building into the area from the Great Lakes and then cresting over
the area Friday. Clear skies are expected thru the period with
seasonable temperatures. Readings will be little below normal Thu
and close to normal Fri. Patchy frost is possible both Thu/Fri
mornings for the southern Poconos and north NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not many changes from the previous forecast. The benign weather
continues into the weekend and into Sunday morning. After that, very
small chances for showers for the far NW and chances for showers
Sunday night and into Monday. These chances for showers will be
associated with a low pressure system and front which will be moving
NE across southern Canada and down the St. Lawrence Valley.  The
highest chances for any (possible) rains will be across the NW
areas.

Temperatures for the long term will be above normal Sat/Sun with
plenty of highs in the low/mid 70s and upper 60s far N/W. After that
and into next week, readings will descend back to more normal with
highs in the 60s. Lows will be mostly in the 50s this weekend and
40s Mon/Tue. There will probably be some 30s and frost possible for
the southern Poconos and north NJ for next Mon night/Tue
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. West winds less than 5 knots. High confidence.

Wednesday...VFR. West-northwest winds 5-10 knots with gusts
15-20 knots in the afternoon. High confidence.

Outlook...

Wed night thru Sunday morning... VFR expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Wednesday...Conditions will remain below advisory
levels as seas will remain below 5 feet and wind gusts will
remain below 25 knots. Fair.

Outlook...
Sub-SCA late this week and much of the weekend with fair
weather expected. There will be increasing winds and seas Sun
afternoon and into the evening with SCA flag possible then.
Showers may arrive Sun evening, but chances are low attm.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Robertson
NEAR TERM...MPS/Robertson
SHORT TERM...OHara
LONG TERM...OHara
AVIATION...MPS/OHara/Robertson
MARINE...OHara/Robertson