013
FXUS61 KOKX 111134
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
734 AM EDT Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A subtle high pressure ridge will give way to low pressure
developing south of the area tonight. The low passes south and
east of Long Island Saturday and slowly drifts northeast
through Sunday. Weak high pressure builds in through Monday. A
frontal system will approach from the west Monday night, with a
cold frontal passage expected late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning. Another cold front will move through Tuesday
night. High pressure then remains centered to the south and west
thereafter through next Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure positioned to the northeast of the area has been
keeping the lower atmosphere fairly dry with much of the
moisture from the trough of low pressure being unable to reach
the ground last night and through this morning. Some showers are
building into the NYC metro but shouldn`t last more than a few
hours. As a large upper level trough digs over the East Coast
today, a low pressure system develops along the Mid-Atlantic
coast this afternoon.

Until then, much of the day should be dry. As the low develops
to the south, some subtle waves of moisture may result in
scattered showers, mainly for the western portions of the area
closer to the inverted trough at the surface. Highs today will
be in the upper 40s to near 50, being kept below average by an
increasing easterly flow off of the ocean.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The low pressure developing along the Mid-Atlantic coast will
slowly approach the area from the south tonight. Much of the
area on the north side of the low pressure system will see
fairly strong frontogenetical forcing allowing for the
blossoming of precipitation, primarily in the form of rain, this
evening and into the overnight period. As the low approaches
and strengthens, an increasing easterly and then northerly
component to the wind will usher in colder air from the north.

While much of the moisture will fall in the form of a widespread
moderate rainfall, some areas in the Lower Hudson Valley and
interior southern Connecticut may cool off enough to mix with
some snow late tonight and into the early morning on Saturday.
There remains an unusual amount of uncertainty as to the
occurrence and duration of any snowfall as any snow
accumulations will likely be heavily dependent on the timing and
intensity of any snowfall. Dynamic cooling of the column may
support the transition to primarily snow for at least a brief
time, which would increase confidence in and accumulating
snowfall for portions of the interior, however this is also
difficult to pinpoint until it occurs as temperatures will be
marginal. As of now, snowfall accumulations through Saturday
morning are expected to be 1 inch or less, mainly for the higher
elevations of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior SW
Connecticut, though it`s possible some locations see more than 1
inch depending on any mesoscale features and intensity of
precipitation.

By Saturday morning, the low stalls south of the area and drifts
slowly eastward through the day and into Saturday night. Much of
the strongest forcing should move north of the area and along
with it the more persistent precipitation. Residual showers
remain possible through the day Saturday, but chances decrease
fairly quickly later in the day. Highs Saturday will be much
cooler than average under a northerly flow, with highs only in
the low to middle 40s.

Thew low slowly drifts into the Canadian Maritimes Sunday with a
weakening northerly flow. Isolated showers remain possible,
especially for the easternmost areas. As the low pulls away,
some breaks in the clouds are possible Sunday as temperatures
rise into the middle 50s.

Total rainfall amounts of around an inch are possible, with a
bulk of the rainfall occurring tonight and into early Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Models in good agreement with a 500mb ridge moving into the area
Sunday night, with its axis shifting through during Monday night.
This along with weak surface high pressure keeps us dry through the
daytime on Monday. A digging 500mb trough will help push a cold
front through during the earlier hours of Tuesday morning. Ahead of
it, a 50% chance of warm advection rainfall. Still a chance of
showers during the rest of Tuesday with a cyclonic flow aloft, but
most of the day should be dry. Moderate to high confidence of no
significant impacts anticipated with this system, even if a rumble
of thunder can`t be ruled out during Monday night.

A stronger, but moisture-starved cold front follows for late Tuesday
night, then upper ridging doesn`t return until Wednesday night into
Thursday, resulting in a slow return of high pressure. Dry weather
expected for Tuesday night through Thursday.

NBM looked good for temperatures through the long term forecast with
generally no more than about a 5 degree difference between the 25th
and 75th percentiles.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Weak high pressure with a surface trough nearby to the west
gives way to low pressure approaching from the south tonight.

Mainly MVFR to VFR today with still a chance of tempo IFR
from 12-15z for all but KISP/KBDR/KGON where VFR should prevail
all day. Mainly dry until around 00z Saturday when rain pushes
in from the south. Any showers during the daytime likely occur
without vsby restrictions.

E-ENE winds increasing a little this afternoon along with gusts
around 20 kt. Winds increase as they back towards NE this
evening.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts around 20kt possible at KJFK through this
morning. A few Light showers possible during the daytime hours,
but likely without VSBY restrictions. Timing flight category
changes could be off by 1-2 hours. Chance that tempo IFR
doesn`t occur this morning. Chance of LLWS after 06z Sat,
primarily for KJFK and KLGA.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Saturday: IFR. Rain tapers to a chance of showers early. NE
winds 10-20kt with gusts to 25-30kt.

Sunday: MVFR/VFR.

Monday: VFR.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, W winds gust 20-25kt

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure developing south of the area and approaching will
allow gusts to increase later today and wave heights to increase
on the ocean as well. Small craft advisories are in effect
beginning at 16Z on the ocean with gusts near 25kt and seas
building above 5 feet. By 22Z, gusts will increase and become
more widespread so SCA conditions will be likely on all waters
with gales likely on the ocean tonight. A Gale Warning is now in
effect for the ocean through 22Z Saturday for wind gusts of
35-40kt possible. SCA conditions then prevail for the ocean with
residual wave heights greater than 5 feet through at least
Sunday.

Sub-advisory conditions for Sunday night through Monday night. Next
chance of SCA conditions will be on Tuesday, mainly on the ocean for
both winds and seas, but there could be a few gusts to 25kt on the
other waters as well.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
QPF from tonight through Saturday night has trended downward,
averaging around an inch for most places. Long duration of
this rainfall should preclude any impacts.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A persistent ENE-NE flow through Saturday night will likely cause
some tidal piling through the period with chances of minor coastal
flooding in some areas. It appears that all areas will fall short of
flooding benchmarks with tonight`s high tide cycle, and with the
morning high tide cycle being the lower of the astronomical tides,
levels likely fall short during Saturday morning as well. Best
chance will therefore be during Saturday night with the higher
astronomical tide and accumulated piling. At least a statement could
be needed Saturday night for the south shore back bays of Nassau
County and Queens, as well as parts of NY Harbor and far western LI
Sound.

Water levels may approach minor coastal flood benchmarks in
parts of the NY Harbor area with the high tide cycle tonight
and Sat night due to persistent onshore flow and tidal piling.
This may occur on the back bays of Nassau tonight as well.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
     Saturday for ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT Saturday for
     ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JC/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JC/MW
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JC