970 FXUS61 KOKX 022351 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY Issued by National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 751 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Offshore high pressure remains through midweek. High pressure then weakens, allowing for a frontal system to approach from the west. The associated cold front enters within the area late this week and may linger nearby through the weekend before moving east of the area early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Updated for current conditions. Surface trough moves across this evening. High pressure then builds thereafter but will have its center well south of the region. This will keep a relatively warmer airmass in place. Despite light northerly winds and mostly clear sky conditions, lows tonight expected to be several degrees warmer than the previous night, ranging from mid 40s to upper 50s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Offshore high pressure remains with dry conditions continuing. The region becomes established with a persistent SW flow. Warm air advection will increase as a a result. Tuesday`s forecast highs are about 5 to 8 degrees warmer than the previous day, ranging from upper 70s to lower 80s for a majority of the region. Tuesday night, likewise, expect the warming trend to continue as lows just will be mainly from lower 50s to lower 60s. Side note, there has been recent smoke aloft reported from Canadian wildfires. This has resulted in some haze in the sky but not significant enough to result to reduce visibilities at the surface. The HRRR model shows a relative increase in smoke Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night so perhaps another hazy sunset is in store for Tuesday evening. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The synoptic ridge pattern gradually shifts to more of a trough structure with rain eventually returning to the forecast late week and towards the weekend. At the surface, offshore high pressure remains dominant Wednesday but eventually weakens Thursday into Friday. A frontal system from the west then approaches with its associated cold front. This cold front lingers around the area after it moves in before eventually shifting east of the area late weekend towards early next week. Rain shower chances highest Friday through Saturday night and then these rain shower chances lower thereafter. Warming trend continues to start with the warmest forecast temperatures Wednesday through Friday, with upper 80s to near 90 for some locations. Lower temperature trend thereafter with more rain shower chances in the forecast and eventually more northerly flow late weekend into early next week. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms Thursday, Friday as well as the first half of the weekend. The more trough synoptic pattern will allow for greater moisture in the atmosphere with higher PW values. With warmer temperatures forecast Thursday and Friday, more low level instability would be available for thunderstorm growth. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure builds tonight into Tuesday morning, then moves quickly offshore Tuesday afternoon. VFR. Sea breezes end early this evening, with the winds then becoming light and variable at all the terminals by the overnight. A light NW flow develops Tuesday morning before winds briefly become light and variable before becoming southerly by afternoon, with sea breeze enhancement. The exception is KSWF which will remain light and variable much of Tuesday with a light westerly flow in the afternoon. Smoke aloft from Canadian wildfires is likely, especially during Tuesday. Low level visibility will not be impacted. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... Tuesday night through Thursday: VFR. Friday: Possible MVFR/IFR with chance of showers/tstms. Saturday: Possible MVFR/IFR with showers likely. Chance of tstms. && .MARINE... Only minor changes to the winds through tonight, mainly lowering wind speeds. Conditions expected to remain below SCA thresholds on all waters through Thursday night. Thereafter, conditions trends go up with seas on the ocean. So, SCA will become more probable Friday through the first half of the weekend on the ocean. Non-ocean zones are forecast to remain below SCA thresholds. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through midweek. Late week, there are low probabilities for thunderstorms and forecast models indicates PW values near 1.5 to 1.75 inches. Some locally heavy rain is possible, especially with thunderstorms, with minor flooding possible. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... There is a low risk for the development of rip current at the ocean beaches Tuesday and Wednesday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JM NEAR TERM...JM/MET SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM...JM AVIATION...MET MARINE...JM/MET HYDROLOGY...JM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...