115 FXUS61 KOKX 071939 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 339 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure passes nearby into tonight. A cold front approaches Tuesday and begins to move through the area Tuesday night. The front likely stalls nearby the rest of the week leading to unsettled conditions, potentially into the upcoming weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... The center of the remnants of what was TS Chantal are spinning over the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay early this afternoon, passing off the Delmarva this evening and skirting south of Long Island tonight. A deep tropical air mass has advected in with high pressure over the Atlantic helping steer the plume north. 12Z OKX sounding found a PWAT over 2 inches this morning, and moisture convergence along a surface trough located just to the west of the area will continue to serve as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm development into this evening. Given the depth of the moisture, soundings are supportive of efficient, warm rain processes, and MLCAPE values are over 1000 J/kg, torrential downpours are likely with any activity that develops. 12Z HREF 3-hr QPF continues to offer at least a 10 percent risk of 3 inches in 3 hours for parts of NE NJ late this afternoon, also where FFG values are lowest in the region. WPC has expanded the slight risk for excessive rainfall for this same area. Elsewhere, showers possible, but coverage looks to be lower and perhaps just isolated. Locally a quick inch or two possible with the downpours, particularly west of the Hudson, but basin QPF should average under a half inch, and some locales may see little to no rainfall through tonight. Activity diminishes this evening as the remnant low passes south and east of the region, and conditions tonight remain mild and muggy, with the potential for areas of patchy fog to develop. Temperatures remain in the 70s everywhere overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... In the wake of the remnants of Chantal exiting our to sea, a cold front back to the west begins to approach through the day on Tuesday. Deep tropical moisture remains in place ahead of the front, and showers and thunderstorms look to develop once again into the afternoon hours as the boundary approaches. The main concern will once again be torrential downpours and localized flash flooding. WPC has expanded a slight risk to now include the entire local area, indicating isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding are possible. Also can`t rule out a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging wind gusts the main threat. SPC has much of the area in a marginal risk, with a slight just off to the south and west over NJ. Given tall CAPE profiles in a weak shear, uncapped environment, there is potential for an isolated downburst or two. Latest hires CAMs develop clusters of convection by mid afternoon across the I95 corridor from the Mid Atlantic and into the local Tri State, before propagating east into the early evening. In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, temperatures on Tuesday may be able to achieve lower 90s across the urban corridor of NE NJ and NYC, especially if enough clearing occurs early in the day before convection initiates. Given dew pts into the 70s, peak heat indices are progged around 100F and a heat advisory was hoisted for NYC, most of NE NJ, southern Westchester, and Nassau Co. Elsewhere, marginal advisory criteria is possible, but think values largely remain more in the mid to upper 90s. Precipitation diminishes overnight, but the advancing front slows and potentially stalls over the area Tuesday night, and conditions remain mild and muggy with temperatures only falling back into the 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The NBM was followed with minor local adjustments. Key Points: * A stalled front south of the area will remain in the general vicinity through the weekend. * Each day will present a chance of showers and/or thunderstorms with the overall highest chances from roughly late Wednesday night through Thursday night. * Temperatures should be right around average for this time of the year with highs each day in the lower and middle 80s. . && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will remain offshore, while weak low pressure passes to the south this afternoon and tonight. A cold front approaches late tonight and remains in the vicinity through Tuesday morning. Generally VFR for most terminals, except for eastern terminals such as KISP and KGON, which may only improve to MVFR this afternoon with brief breaks of VFR at times. MVFR to IFR conditions move back in tonight, mainly for eastern terminals, with better conditions as you head west. KJFK may see brief IFR conditions, while KEWR will likely remain VFR. As for precipitation, better chance for thunderstorms across the western metro terminals (KEWR and KTEB) where there is a VCTS from 19Z-22Z this afternoon. Thunderstorms are more likely here, but there is still some uncertainty with how far north they make it. If they do move through, they will be associated with MVFR conditions or lower. Less probable, but still at least 30% chance of seeing thunder for KJFK and KLGA from 18Z today through 00Z tonight. A S to SSE wind around 10 kt at the metro and coastal terminals, and light inland, though winds may vary from SE to SW through early this afternoon. Winds become light and variable once again tonight. Gusts of 15 to around 20 kt are possible at some terminals today, likely ending before 00Z tonight. A SW to WSW wind sets up Tuesday at around 10 kt by mid to late morning. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... AMD likely overnight with changes in flight category in low stratus/fog, mainly for KLGA and KEWR. Any gusts likely end prior to 00Z this evening. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Tuesday afternoon: VFR, except MVFR or lower in afternoon showers and tstms especially from the NYC metros north/west. Gusty winds also possible in stronger storms. Wednesday through Friday: Afternoon and evening showers/tstms possible each day, with brief MVFR or IFR conditions. Saturday: Mainly VFR. A slight chance for showers and an isolated thunderstorm with MVFR or lower conditions. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Seas build toward 5 ft tonight with a SE swell on Atlantic ocean waters east of Fire Island Inlet, and a Small Craft Advisory was hoisted here from 6Z Tue thru 6Z Wed. Elsewhere, winds and seas are expected to remain below advisory criteria much of the week, and potentially through the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Torrential downpours are possible into this evening with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially across NE NJ, NYC metro, and Lower Hudson Valley. This could lead to areas of nuisance flooding and localized flash flooding. WPC has NE NJ in a slight risk for excessive rainfall, with NYC and the Lower Hudson Valley outlined in a marginal risk. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon could once again produce locally heavy rainfall that leads to flooding. WPC has expanded a slight risk across the entire local region. A marginal risk remains in place for much of the area on Wednesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... The rip risk through this evening on all ocean beaches continues to be moderate with 2-3 foot surf heights. For Tuesday, the risk increases to high with surf heights around 5 feet. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for CTZ005-009. Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Air Quality Alert from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ078>081-177-179. Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ071>075- 176>179. High Risk for Rip Currents from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NYZ075-080-081-178-179. NJ...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ004-006- 104>108. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ350-353. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DR NEAR TERM...DR SHORT TERM...DR LONG TERM... AVIATION...JP MARINE...DR HYDROLOGY...DR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...