292 FXUS61 KOKX 271747 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 147 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure moves offshore as a weak frontal system moves into the area today. The front heads east of the region tonight into early Monday. High pressure then returns Monday into Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes Friday into next Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... GOES-16 6.95um WV channel depicts a mid/upper shortwave racing through the eastern Great Lakes and into western upstate New York region late this morning. A weak N-S oriented surface warm front/trough was located in eastern PA and was moving slowly eastward. A moderately unstable airmass east of the frontal feature (MUCAPE 500- 1000J/kg) was maintaining a convective complex with showers and embedded thunderstorms moving through northeastern PA. Much of the day remains cloudy with the warm front moving slowly to the east, and will limit overall airmass destabilization. Another round of showers/thunderstorms associated with the approaching shortwave and warm front are likely this afternoon. Model soundings do show an appreciable increase in PWAT, with over 2" by this afternoon along with at least some increase in instability (MUCAPE 1000-1700J/kg) and shear (0-6km shear values 25- 30kts) with the approaching shortwave. SPC maintains a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for a small portion of the CWA, with the risk over much of central and southern New Jersey and into the southern portion of NYC. In addition, there is at least a localized flash flood threat this afternoon with any thunderstorms given the high PWAT environment. HREF probabilities of 3" in 3/hr are around 10%, however, further supporting the localized nature of any flash flooding. Any convective activity should weaken as it heads east, given the more stable environment and loss of upper support this evening. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... * Heat and humidity builds on Monday and continues into Tuesday. Heat Advisory in effect for the entire area for both days. Weak upper ridging aloft takes over for Monday and Tuesday as the area continues to reside on the eastern edge of a large upper ridge. An increase in heat and humidity on Monday as weak ridging builds back in behind the departing shortwave. Dry weather is expected. However, h850 temperatures approach 20-21C Monday afternoon with dewpoint in the mid 70s (per NBM). Thus, heat indices of 100-105 for northeast NJ and 95-100 elsewhere look possible once again Monday afternoon. More heat and humidity on Tuesday, under mainly dry conditions, as the upper ridging begins to break down. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The NBM was followed with no changes. Key Points: * Heat and humidity will continue on Wednesday. Widespread heat index values between 95 and 99 with some locations reaching the 100-104 mark. Heat headlines will be expanded into Wednesday. * Chances for showers and thunderstorms increases Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. Showers could persist into Thursday. * High pressure returns to end the week and should dominate the pattern this weekend bringing cooler temperatures and low humidity levels. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weak front slides through the region this afternoon into evening. High pressure builds towards the region tonight into Monday. Widespread MVFR cigs ahead of stalled warm front, with areas of MVFR vsby from combination of haze/smoke and shra/tsra. MVFR cigs should gradually improve to VFR late this eve for western terminals as warm front moves through, but likely remain for eastern terminals and potentially falling to IFR at KGON. Low and sparse thunderstorm (30 percent prob at an airport) activity expected this aft/eve with slow moving frontal boundary, producing brief IFR conds. There is a less than 5% probability of a severe thunderstorm within vicinity of NYC/NJ terminals. S/SW winds 8 to 12 kt with occasional gusts to 15 kt today. Light and variable to W/NW winds tonight, becoming light N for the MA push. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Low and sparse thunderstorm (30 percent prob at an airport) expected for this aft/eve push (18-02z) with slow moving frontal boundary, producing brief IFR conds. Improvement to VFR cigs/vsby likely through the eve push, outside of shra/tsra. Timing may be off by 1 to 2 hrs. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... Monday - Tuesday: VFR. Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms late in the day and at night. Wed Night thru Thursday: Showers with MVFR possible. Friday: VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... A weak pressure gradient thru Wednesday will lead to the continuation of conditions below Small Craft Advisory levels. Conditions should remain below Advisory levels next Thursday, but there may be a slight increase in winds and seas due to the passage of a cold front. && .HYDROLOGY... Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly for NYC and points N&W. Rainfall rates of 2"/hr are possible. There are currently no hydrologic concerns next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A low rip current risk overall is expected today and Monday with any onshore swell component a bit weaker and a light southerly wind wave Monday. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for CTZ005>012. NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179. Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075- 078>081-176>179. NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002- 004-006-103>108. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DS/MET NEAR TERM...MET SHORT TERM...MET LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...NV MARINE...DS/MET HYDROLOGY...DS/MET TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...