292
FXUS61 KOKX 271747
AFDOKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
147 PM EDT Sun Jul 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves offshore as a weak frontal system moves into
the area today. The front heads east of the region tonight into
early Monday. High pressure then returns Monday into Tuesday. A
cold front approaches Wednesday and moves across the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds in from the
Great Lakes Friday into next Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOES-16 6.95um WV channel depicts a mid/upper shortwave racing
through the eastern Great Lakes and into western upstate New
York region late this morning. A weak N-S oriented surface warm
front/trough was located in eastern PA and was moving slowly
eastward. A moderately unstable airmass east of the frontal
feature (MUCAPE 500- 1000J/kg) was maintaining a convective
complex with showers and embedded thunderstorms moving through
northeastern PA.
Much of the day remains cloudy with the warm front moving slowly
to the east, and will limit overall airmass destabilization.
Another round of showers/thunderstorms associated with the
approaching shortwave and warm front are likely this afternoon.
Model soundings do show an appreciable increase in PWAT, with
over 2" by this afternoon along with at least some increase in
instability (MUCAPE 1000-1700J/kg) and shear (0-6km shear
values 25- 30kts) with the approaching shortwave. SPC maintains
a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms for a small portion of
the CWA, with the risk over much of central and southern New
Jersey and into the southern portion of NYC. In addition, there
is at least a localized flash flood threat this afternoon with
any thunderstorms given the high PWAT environment. HREF
probabilities of 3" in 3/hr are around 10%, however, further
supporting the localized nature of any flash flooding.
Any convective activity should weaken as it heads east, given the
more stable environment and loss of upper support this evening.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
* Heat and humidity builds on Monday and continues into Tuesday.
Heat Advisory in effect for the entire area for both days.
Weak upper ridging aloft takes over for Monday and Tuesday as the
area continues to reside on the eastern edge of a large upper ridge.
An increase in heat and humidity on Monday as weak ridging builds
back in behind the departing shortwave. Dry weather is expected.
However, h850 temperatures approach 20-21C Monday afternoon with
dewpoint in the mid 70s (per NBM). Thus, heat indices of 100-105 for
northeast NJ and 95-100 elsewhere look possible once again Monday
afternoon.
More heat and humidity on Tuesday, under mainly dry conditions, as
the upper ridging begins to break down.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The NBM was followed with no changes.
Key Points:
* Heat and humidity will continue on Wednesday. Widespread heat
index values between 95 and 99 with some locations reaching
the 100-104 mark. Heat headlines will be expanded into
Wednesday.
* Chances for showers and thunderstorms increases Wednesday into
Wednesday night as a cold front approaches and moves across the
region. Showers could persist into Thursday.
* High pressure returns to end the week and should dominate the
pattern this weekend bringing cooler temperatures and low humidity
levels.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A weak front slides through the region this afternoon into
evening. High pressure builds towards the region tonight into
Monday.
Widespread MVFR cigs ahead of stalled warm front, with areas of
MVFR vsby from combination of haze/smoke and shra/tsra. MVFR
cigs should gradually improve to VFR late this eve for western
terminals as warm front moves through, but likely remain for
eastern terminals and potentially falling to IFR at KGON.
Low and sparse thunderstorm (30 percent prob at an airport)
activity expected this aft/eve with slow moving frontal
boundary, producing brief IFR conds. There is a less than 5%
probability of a severe thunderstorm within vicinity of NYC/NJ
terminals.
S/SW winds 8 to 12 kt with occasional gusts to 15 kt today.
Light and variable to W/NW winds tonight, becoming light N for
the MA push.
...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Low and sparse thunderstorm (30 percent prob at an airport)
expected for this aft/eve push (18-02z) with slow moving frontal
boundary, producing brief IFR conds.
Improvement to VFR cigs/vsby likely through the eve push,
outside of shra/tsra. Timing may be off by 1 to 2 hrs.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
Monday - Tuesday: VFR.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the day and at night.
Wed Night thru Thursday: Showers with MVFR possible.
Friday: VFR.
Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
&&
.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient thru Wednesday will lead to the
continuation of conditions below Small Craft Advisory levels.
Conditions should remain below Advisory levels next Thursday,
but there may be a slight increase in winds and seas due to the
passage of a cold front.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Isolated instances of flash flooding are possible late this
afternoon and evening, mainly for NYC and points N&W. Rainfall
rates of 2"/hr are possible. There are currently no hydrologic
concerns next week.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A low rip current risk overall is expected today and Monday
with any onshore swell component a bit weaker and a light
southerly wind wave Monday.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
CTZ005>012.
NY...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...DS/MET
HYDROLOGY...DS/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...