798 FXUS61 KGYX 170256 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1056 PM EDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cooler and breezy with mountain snow showers into Thursday. Warmer conditions return Friday and Saturday and so does the chance for showers. A cold front crosses Saturday night into Sunday, with a return to drier conditions into early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 1045 PM...Little change to the going forecast. Snow showers continue on and off in the mountains. Mostly cloudy conditions elsewhere. The clouds downwind of the mountains will tend to clear out later tonight as a short wave trough axis moves farther east of the area. 630 PM Update...Little change to the going forecast this evening. Everything looks to be on track with continued snow showers in the mountains and variable cloudiness and gusty winds downwind of the mountains to the coastal plain. Previously... Broad troughing and cyclonic flow is in place across the Northeastern US with the center of a stacked low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes. Multiple shortwaves moving through will produce periods of increased rain and snow showers across northern areas and in the mountains through tonight. Downwind of the mountains, mainly just mostly cloudy to overcast skies the rest of the day today with steep lapse rates and sufficient low-level moisture, but with unblocked flow it`s possible there will be a few light showers. Wind gusts in general should stay in the 25 to 35 mph range, but these will start coming down this evening. Winds continue to ease tonight but are expected to stay up enough to keep the boundary layer mixed. I`ve used more of the raw model output for temps which puts lows in the 30s, except 20s possible across the north. Mostly cloudy skies hold through the early part of tonight before coming partly cloudy outside of the mountains && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low pressure continues to sit over the Canadian Maritimes on Thursday, which will produce similar conditions to today in that it will be breezy again with mountain rain and snow showers. The low levels do dry out through the morning and afternoon which will result in a mostly sunny day south of the mountains and gradually end the precipitation in the mountains. Temperatures are expected to be a couple of degrees higher than today with high reaching the upper 40s to mid 50s. Skies stay mostly clear going into Thursday night, and most areas are expected to decouple as high pressure builds in. With favorable radiational cooling conditions, I have blended some cooler MOS into the forecast putting most places in the 20s for lows. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Long term update...01z NBM is reasonably in line with other late sources of guidance this evening. Still expecting intervals of warm and cold with some showers from time to time. Previously... Overview: Low pressure moves north of the Great Lakes Friday night bringing New England into a warm sector. Additional disturbances will move into this region of low pressure, keeping the mention of showers through the first half of the weekend. The low is slow to advance east, passing a cold front through northern New England late this weekend. Despite the window for precipitation Friday night through Saturday night, forecast rainfall amounts are low. High pressure returns to the area for early week. Details: A sunny start to Friday as high pressure exits the East Coast and return flow increases. Clouds will tend to thicken and lower in the afternoon. It will be another dry day, with RH values possibly falling into the teens before surface moisture increases in the evening. This low level dryness will help delay shower onset further, but these begin making their way into the region late afternoon into the evening. Low pressure will be deepening across the Great Lakes with initial showers pushing into northern New England along a warm front. Strong ridging to the east will prevent the main cold frontal passage until later in the weekend. This leaves much of the area in a warm regime with isolated to scattered showers for much of the area. While total QPF has varied in ensembles for the coast, interior, and foothills...QPF has been more consistent across the mountains. Thus have kept mention of the likely chance for showers here Friday night and again Saturday afternoon. With some elevated instability present, cant rule out the chance for thunder either window. Will continue to monitor timing and location before adding to the going forecast. The lack of widespread precip does bode well for possibly seeing daytime highs in the 70s on Saturday. Guidance pins much of the CWA in the narrow warm sector during the day. With clouds expected to be in the region in some capacity, that will weigh against temps rising higher. Areas that do break out should see temps climb quickly given the low level warmth and available mixing. The cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will bring another dry stretch Sunday into Monday with breezy NW winds. Temperatures fall back into the mid to upper 50s for highs, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. The next disturbance approaches Monday night as low pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. Low positioning is variable at this range, and this will play a role in how the system evolves as well as the longevity of precipitation in the area. Some solutions develop another surface low in vicinity of the Gulf of Maine, while others try to simply draw the occluded front through the forecast area. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...VFR through Thursday. Could see a few rain or snow showers outside of the mountains into early this evening, but chances for restrictions are very low. The more likely TAF site to see restrictions is HIE where MVFR ceilings likely continue, and rain and snow showers may bring intermittent periods of reduced visibilities. For winds, could see 25-30 kt this afternoon into early evening, but these will ease through tonight. Similar conditions are expected for Thursday with less cloud cover south of the mountains but still breezy. Long Term...VFR Friday with clouds thickening into Saturday morning. The region will see a period of SHRA, but coverage is uncertain. In vicinity of a warm front, LLWS will be possible Friday night and Saturday. MVFR ceilings will be most likely near the Quebec border with ME/NH and mountains. A cold front passes Saturday night, bringing an end to showers as well as a NW wind shift. && .MARINE... Short Term...Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes will keep brisk westerly flow across the waters and SCA conditions through at least tonight over the out waters, possibly lingering into Thursday morning. The Bays may occasionally see gusts up to 25 kt through this evening, but duration and frequency doesn`t look enough for an SCA. Conditions then stay below SCA levels the rest of Thursday and Thursday night. Long Term...SCA conditions likely outside of the bays and harbors this weekend. A warm front will initially enter the region Friday night, with increasing SW winds. Low pressure resides to the west through Saturday, before crossing with a cold front overnight into Sunday morning. SCA conditions may continue due to wind Sunday, but uncertain how frequent gusts to 25 or 30 kt will be. In the offshore flow, wave heights will decrease. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152- 154. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...Combs/Ekster SHORT TERM...Combs LONG TERM...Cornwell AVIATION... MARINE...