681 FXUS61 KGYX 091956 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 356 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Conditions become unsettled tonight with a chance of showers along with fog and drizzle into Tuesday morning. Widespread showers and isolated storms are expected during the day Tuesday with drying conditions in the evening and overnight. Improving conditions are then expected for the second half of the week, with perhaps yet another unsettled Saturday in store. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Aside from a few light showers or sprinkles, mostly dry conditions are expected for the rest of today with temperatures falling into the 50s to low 60s by sunset. Downslope winds north of the White may gusts 25-35 mph, but these should ease toward sunset. Going into this evening and tonight, the low levels will saturate with skies becoming cloudy with fog possible. There will also be a chance of showers, but I think there will be more drizzle than showers based on forecast soundings. Temperatures will generally stay in the 50s overnight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A few showers are possible Tuesday morning with skies remaining low overcast, but forecast soundings still depict most of the moisture confined to the low levels, which would support precipitation more in the form of drizzle with fog also sticking around. The rest of the column saturates as an upper trough approaches, and the increasing lift will bring widespread showers from the late morning through the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings show the low levels remaining mostly inverted, but steepening lapse rates aloft will produce enough elevated CAPE that we could see some thunderstorms. PWATs are also forecast to increase to above the 90th percentile for this time of year (1.4-1.6") with warm cloud depths around 11,000 ft, which suggests heavy downpours and efficient rain rates with the instability also present. The HREF ensemble max is hinting at high end amounts of 1-1.5" could be possible somewhere over southern NH, but concerns for hydro issues are very low with the system expected to be pretty progressive in nature. Precipitation starts to taper off across western areas by late afternoon or early evening and will continue to diminish from west to east into the evening. Fog may develop after the rain ends as flow looks pretty weak overnight. Temperatures will be mostly in the 50s to 60s for highs Tuesday, but if precipitation clears out a little faster, they may get closer to 70 in NH. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Overview: The region will be between weather systems come Wednesday. Dry but warmer conditions are forecast ahead of advancing upper low across the northern Great Lakes and southern Canada. As this system tracks east, shower chances increase mainly across the mountains Wed evening and Thursday. Follow-up high pressure into late week and the weekend will play a big role in precipitation chances. Details: Midweek begins quiet but warm as temperatures rise into the upper 70s to around 80. While the surface and aloft remains dry in model profiles, a moist layer in between will be enough to generate at least some diurnal clouds. These may be thicker towards the foothills and mountains with some low moisture getting locked upstream. Have kept shower chances here for the afternoon and the evening as a pre-frontal trough advances eastward. Thursday, upper low passes to the north with surface low bringing a cold front across the forecast area. This again looks to bring showers to the mountains, with limited extension into the interior and coast. This front and incoming high pressure will both play a role in precip chances late week into the weekend. High pressure will be passing north of the Great Lakes Friday, with cold front settling south of the forecast area. Global ensembles and deterministic runs depict weak disturbances with precip passing along the slowing front, with northern high suppressing the activity south. Recent data suggests this activity nudging northward, potentially bringing another round of showers to at least the southern half of the forecast area Friday into Saturday. While initial guidance suggests spotty, non-uniform QPF...the orientation of the slowing front and systems traveling along the boundary becomes a focal point for forcing. Will need to monitor its positioning and persistence for possible greater amounts. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR today. IFR to LIFR conditions are then likely this evening through early Tuesday with low stratus, fog, and drizzle. Some improvement is possible through the day Tuesday, but restrictions still remain likely with widespread showers and low stratus. Conditions then improve Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening as showers end from west to east. However, IFR to MVFR stratus may last after the rain ends, and fog may also develop Tuesday night. Long Term...VFR Wednesday. MVFR ceilings will be possible Thursday north of the mountains, with breezy west winds. This trends towards VFR overnight into Friday. && .MARINE... Short Term...Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Tuesday night. Winds will remain primarily out of the east or northeast through tonight and early Tuesday as weak low pressure develops south of the waters. During the day Tuesday, winds could be variable at times as the weak low moves across the waters, also bringing showers with it. The showers are expected to end Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as the low pressure moves off to the north and east with winds turning west to southwesterly, but fog may linger into Tuesday night. Long Term...A cold front will approach Thursday, bringing gusty SW winds over the waters. A SCA may be needed as gusts rise to around 25 kts and seas build to around 5 ft on the eastern coastal waters. This front drapes across southern New England into late week as high pressure tries to move into the region for the weekend. There is some uncertainty how far south the front advances, which could bring unsettled weather for a portion of the waters. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for MEZ023>025. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Combs SHORT TERM...Combs LONG TERM...Cornwell