515
FXUS61 KGYX 170727
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
327 AM EDT Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes will continue gusty NW
winds today. High pressure builds in from the SW tonight into
Friday. A warm front lifts through the Northeast late Friday
bringing chances for showers and much warmer conditions
Saturday. A cold front crosses late Saturday with high pressure
building in early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure over
the Great Lakes will maintain a NW gradient over the area today.
This gradient combined with deep mixing will allow for gusty
winds to ramp up mid morning with peak gusts to 35 mph this
afternoon. Drier air moving into the region will allow for
clear skies south of the mountains with northern zones seeing
clearing skies around mid day. Highs will range from the low 40s
north to mid 50s south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Winds diminish this evening with an axis of high pressure
crossing the region overnight. This will allow for efficient
radiational cooling with lows dropping into the upper teens
within northern valleys and upper 20s to low 30s south of the
mountains.

High pressure shifts south of New England Friday with a warm
front lifting into Quebec Friday afternoon. Morning sunshine
along with mixing to 925 mb will bring temperatures into the 60s
across much of NH and interior western Maine. Increasing
southerly flow will bring cooler marine air into coastal Maine
where highs may remain in the 50s. The approaching warm front
will bring increasing clouds west to east during the afternoon
with chances for showers by sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Long term update...01z NBM is reasonably in line with other
latest sources of guidance this evening. Still expecting
intervals of warm and cold with some showers from time to time.

Previously...

Overview: Low pressure moves north of the Great Lakes Friday
night bringing New England into a warm sector. Additional
disturbances will move into this region of low pressure, keeping
the mention of showers through the first half of the weekend.
The low is slow to advance east, passing a cold front through
northern New England late this weekend. Despite the window for
precipitation Friday night through Saturday night, forecast
rainfall amounts are low. High pressure returns to the area for
early week.

Details:

Low pressure will be deepening across the Great Lakes Friday
night with initial showers pushing into northern New England
along a warm front. Strong ridging to the east will prevent the
main cold frontal passage until later in the weekend. This
leaves much of the area in a warm regime with isolated to
scattered showers for much of the area. While total QPF has
varied in ensembles for the coast, interior, and foothills...QPF
has been more consistent across the mountains. Thus have kept
mention of the likely chance for showers here Friday night and
again Saturday afternoon. With some elevated instability
present, cant rule out the chance for thunder either window.
Will continue to monitor timing and location before adding to
the going forecast.

The lack of widespread precip does bode well for possibly
seeing daytime highs in the 70s on Saturday. Guidance pins much
of the CWA in the narrow warm sector during the day. With clouds
expected to be in the region in some capacity, that will weigh
against temps rising higher. Areas that do break out should see
temps climb quickly given the low level warmth and available
mixing.

The cold front moves across the forecast area Saturday night
into Sunday morning. This will bring another dry stretch Sunday
into Monday with breezy NW winds. Temperatures fall back into
the mid to upper 50s for highs, with overnight lows in the 30s
and 40s. The next disturbance approaches Monday night as low
pressure tracks through the Great Lakes. Low positioning is
variable at this range, and this will play a role in how the
system evolves as well as the longevity of precipitation in the
area. Some solutions develop another surface low in vicinity of
the Gulf of Maine, while others try to simply draw the occluded
front through the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...VFR will prevail today through Friday. Clouds
increase from the west Friday afternoon while cigs look to
remain above MVFR thresholds.

Long Term...The region will see a period of SHRA Friday night,
but coverage is uncertain. In vicinity of a warm front, LLWS
will be possible Friday night and Saturday. MVFR ceilings will
be most likely near the Quebec border with ME/NH and mountains.
A cold front passes Saturday night, bringing an end to showers
as well as a NW wind shift.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Gusty west to northwest winds will continue SCA
conditions over the waters through day break. Winds remain gusty
through today, while peak gusts will remain below 25 kts. Winds
diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the waters. High
pressure sinks southeast of the waters Friday with southerly
flow increasing Friday afternoon. SCA conditions are likely to
return by Friday evening.

Long Term...SCA conditions likely outside of the bays and
harbors this weekend. A warm front will initially enter the
region Friday night, with increasing SW winds. Low pressure
resides to the west through Saturday, before crossing with a
cold front overnight into Sunday morning. SCA conditions may
continue due to wind Sunday, but uncertain how frequent gusts to
25 or 30 kt will be. In the offshore flow, wave heights will
decrease.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ150-
     152-154.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Cornwell