162
FXUS61 KGYX 051040
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
640 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will approach from the northwest this
afternoon with hot and humid airmass building into the area
ahead of the front. The front will bring chances for scattered
strong to severe storms, mainly from foothills northward. The front
will stall over the region Friday with humid conditions continuing
and chances for strong storms again Friday afternoon. Additional
waves of low pressure will rack along the front through Saturday
with high pressure building in Sunday to Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
640 AM...Minor update to T/Tds to reflect the latest observed
trends.

Previously...

CAMs have remained relatively consistent over the past 24 hours
with respect to the convective parameter space and thunderstorm
coverage this afternoon and evening. Dew points will climb into
the 60s with temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s that
will yield a corridor of ML CAPE around 1500 J/kg across much of
the area away from the coast by early this afternoon. Effective
shear will be modest around 25-30 kts from the foothills
northward this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will
approach from the northwest and will provide subtle forcing for
scattered storms to develop over the mountains to the Canadian
Border this afternoon with isolated storms possible into the
coastal plain this evening. Overall weak forcing and dry air
aloft seem to be limiting coverage and SPC maintaining a
Marginal Risk is reasonable given the latest round of guidance.
Storms that are able to tap into some of the stronger shear
near the Canadian Border will be capable of severe hail and
DCAPE around 1000 J/kg will bring the threat for strong to
damaging winds with any core collapse downbursts.

Today will start off mild with mostly fair skies. Latest
integrated smoke guidance suggest there will be less in the way
of haze today than yesterday. Latest BUFKIT profiles suggest
there will be enough mixing to keep dewpoints in check with max
apparent temperatures staying shy of Heat Advisory criteria.
Nevertheless it will be the hottest day of the season so far for
much of the area with elevated humidity levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The approaching cold front will wash out and stall over the area
tonight into Friday. The threat for strong to severe storms will
diminish with the loss of heating while low level moisture will
remain over the area. It will be warm and humid tonight with
lows mainly in the 60s with potential for patchy fog.

The stalled front will remain over the area through the day
Friday. More in the way of cloud cover will keeps highs in the
upper 70s to low 80s while dewpoints into the mid 60s will keep
things muggy. A short wave approaching from James Bay will
spread modest forcing into the region for additional rounds of
showers and storms. Will have to watch cloud cover trends and
instability as forcing looks a little better than today with
slight increase in effective shear. SPC has placed much of the
area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds
being the primary threat. Additionally, PWATs will have
increased Friday and more widespread coverage of storms will
bring the risk of isolated flooding if any areas see multiple
rounds of storms.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
11 PM Update...No significant changes noted in the latest NBM.

Previously...

A stationary front will remain draped over the area Friday night
with additional waves of low pressure tracking along the
boundary through Saturday. There is some uncertainty on a
specific track, but the general model consensus has a rain axis
pivoting over central NH and Maine by Saturday morning. Steadier
rain may continue through the day Saturday. It should be a
little cooler, with Saturday`s highs expected to be in the 60s
and low 70s.

By Sunday, some lingering showers are possible earlier on as the
front progresses offshore. Any of these remaining showers should
clear the area in the afternoon. A dry Monday looks likely as
ridging quickly builds back into the region. Another shortwave
arrives towards the middle of next week, with more widespread rain
possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The end of next week looks drier,
though a low may try to move in over next weekend. Next week`s
temperatures look to be in the 70s through much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR today with isolated to scattered TSRA
chances increasing this afternoon. KLEB, KHIE, and KAUG will see
the highest likelihood of storm passing close enough to bring
restrictions. TSRA chances diminish tonight while low level
moisture will likely lead to some fog along with low stratus
that could bring a period of IFR to LIFR conditions. Conditions
likely improve Friday morning before additional rounds of
showers and storms develop Friday afternoon.

Long Term... Restrictions are expected to stay down through
Saturday evening at least, as steady rain and thunderstorms move
through the area. Restrictions may improve for Sunday and
Monday, as showers and storms become increasingly more isolated.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds today
through Friday. A front will stall near the waters tonight
through Friday that may allow for persistent fog over the
waters.

Long Term...
Variable winds at near 10-15kts expected through the weekend
and into early next week. 1-3ft seas expected Saturday. Seas
gradually increase on Sunday, seas may reach SCA levels over the
open waters along the Midcoast Sunday afternoon. Seas gradually
diminish afterwards, through the first half of next week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028.
NH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NHZ014.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Schroeter
SHORT TERM...Schroeter
LONG TERM...Palmer