162 FXUS61 KGYX 051040 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 640 AM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front will approach from the northwest this afternoon with hot and humid airmass building into the area ahead of the front. The front will bring chances for scattered strong to severe storms, mainly from foothills northward. The front will stall over the region Friday with humid conditions continuing and chances for strong storms again Friday afternoon. Additional waves of low pressure will rack along the front through Saturday with high pressure building in Sunday to Monday. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY/... 640 AM...Minor update to T/Tds to reflect the latest observed trends. Previously... CAMs have remained relatively consistent over the past 24 hours with respect to the convective parameter space and thunderstorm coverage this afternoon and evening. Dew points will climb into the 60s with temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s that will yield a corridor of ML CAPE around 1500 J/kg across much of the area away from the coast by early this afternoon. Effective shear will be modest around 25-30 kts from the foothills northward this afternoon and evening. A weak cold front will approach from the northwest and will provide subtle forcing for scattered storms to develop over the mountains to the Canadian Border this afternoon with isolated storms possible into the coastal plain this evening. Overall weak forcing and dry air aloft seem to be limiting coverage and SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk is reasonable given the latest round of guidance. Storms that are able to tap into some of the stronger shear near the Canadian Border will be capable of severe hail and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg will bring the threat for strong to damaging winds with any core collapse downbursts. Today will start off mild with mostly fair skies. Latest integrated smoke guidance suggest there will be less in the way of haze today than yesterday. Latest BUFKIT profiles suggest there will be enough mixing to keep dewpoints in check with max apparent temperatures staying shy of Heat Advisory criteria. Nevertheless it will be the hottest day of the season so far for much of the area with elevated humidity levels. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... The approaching cold front will wash out and stall over the area tonight into Friday. The threat for strong to severe storms will diminish with the loss of heating while low level moisture will remain over the area. It will be warm and humid tonight with lows mainly in the 60s with potential for patchy fog. The stalled front will remain over the area through the day Friday. More in the way of cloud cover will keeps highs in the upper 70s to low 80s while dewpoints into the mid 60s will keep things muggy. A short wave approaching from James Bay will spread modest forcing into the region for additional rounds of showers and storms. Will have to watch cloud cover trends and instability as forcing looks a little better than today with slight increase in effective shear. SPC has placed much of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe storms with damaging winds being the primary threat. Additionally, PWATs will have increased Friday and more widespread coverage of storms will bring the risk of isolated flooding if any areas see multiple rounds of storms. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 11 PM Update...No significant changes noted in the latest NBM. Previously... A stationary front will remain draped over the area Friday night with additional waves of low pressure tracking along the boundary through Saturday. There is some uncertainty on a specific track, but the general model consensus has a rain axis pivoting over central NH and Maine by Saturday morning. Steadier rain may continue through the day Saturday. It should be a little cooler, with Saturday`s highs expected to be in the 60s and low 70s. By Sunday, some lingering showers are possible earlier on as the front progresses offshore. Any of these remaining showers should clear the area in the afternoon. A dry Monday looks likely as ridging quickly builds back into the region. Another shortwave arrives towards the middle of next week, with more widespread rain possible Tuesday and Wednesday. The end of next week looks drier, though a low may try to move in over next weekend. Next week`s temperatures look to be in the 70s through much of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term...Mainly VFR today with isolated to scattered TSRA chances increasing this afternoon. KLEB, KHIE, and KAUG will see the highest likelihood of storm passing close enough to bring restrictions. TSRA chances diminish tonight while low level moisture will likely lead to some fog along with low stratus that could bring a period of IFR to LIFR conditions. Conditions likely improve Friday morning before additional rounds of showers and storms develop Friday afternoon. Long Term... Restrictions are expected to stay down through Saturday evening at least, as steady rain and thunderstorms move through the area. Restrictions may improve for Sunday and Monday, as showers and storms become increasingly more isolated. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds today through Friday. A front will stall near the waters tonight through Friday that may allow for persistent fog over the waters. Long Term... Variable winds at near 10-15kts expected through the weekend and into early next week. 1-3ft seas expected Saturday. Seas gradually increase on Sunday, seas may reach SCA levels over the open waters along the Midcoast Sunday afternoon. Seas gradually diminish afterwards, through the first half of next week. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>028. NH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for NHZ014. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Schroeter SHORT TERM...Schroeter LONG TERM...Palmer