092 FXUS61 KGYX 101958 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 358 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers along with a few storms mostly end by this evening with drying conditions through tonight. Improving, warmer conditions are expected for the second half of the week, with perhaps yet another unsettled Saturday in store. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Mostly light rain showers will continue to push east across the area the rest of this afternoon into early this evening. Could see a few embedded heavier showers and maybe a rumble of thunder or two within this activity, but these will be brief. Looking upstream, satellite is showing some thinning of the clouds along the CT River and partial clearing just to the west of that. This will bring a little more instability and better chances for thunderstorms and heavy downpours. Will have to watch the activity currently over southern VT to see how far eastward it can progress, but the HRRR is advertising a convective line trying to push into the CT River Valley from the west in the 7 to 9 PM time frame. Given the time of day, this would be expected to be on a weakening trend, but there may be heavy downpours and possibly small hail in a more robust updraft. Showers will largely end this evening, but saturated low levels could still result in drizzle in some areas into the early overnight hours as well as patchy fog. The low clouds are expected to clear out from west to night overnight, and additional fog may develop as winds will be light. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Drier and warmer conditions are expected on Wednesday with high temperatures ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s. The 500mb pattern continues to show broad troughing over eastern Canada, which will open the door to a couple of weak waves crossing through, but significant dry air aloft will make showers hard to come by, except the chances are higher in the mountains and CT River Valley where moisture is a little more favorable. For areas to the south of the mountains, there will be good mixing and steep low-level lapse rates to support gusts of 20-25 mph, perhaps up to 30 mph on occasion. Again while generally not supportive of showers, there will be enough moisture for a cu field, and with the steep low-level lapse rates generating 100-200 J/kg of MUCAPE, I do think there will be periods of mostly cloudy skies. The second wave will start pushing a cold front through Wednesday night, but again any showers will stay mostly in the mountains. Overnight temperatures will be in the 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Breezy and remaining warm Thursday as a weak cold front passes off the coast by evening. While the front passes well off the coast at this latitude, it will tend to remain stationary below southern New England. This continues to be a focus of unsettled conditions into late week as high pressure looks to pass to the north. Quicker moving high pressure means the potential for aided return flow come Friday night and Saturday. While earlier trends supported this high suppressing southerly moisture, the split high now reinforces IVT into northern New England to start the weekend. Thus increased rain chances on Saturday. Overall zonal pattern aloft remains with a strong jet, so passing disturbances are progressive. Deeper southerly 700mb flow fails to materialize and larger values of QPF look to be off the table for now. Remainder of the high built north of the Great Lakes looks to shift east Sunday. This would bring drier air with it and lesser chances for rain. Unsettled weather could return as this high exits and return flow allows moisture back into a period between systems early next week. && .AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Short Term...Precipitation will continue to diminish into this evening, but additional showers will be possible into New Hampshire toward 00Z as the cold front approaches. As far as ceilings, IFR to LIFR stratus will stick around at most places into this evening but improvement is expected overnight from west to east, but fog may again redevelop. Mainly VFR Wednesday into Wednesday night with a few showers possible, mainly in the LEB-HIE corridor. Long Term...VFR Thursday with some lingering MVFR ceilings near the CAN/US border in the morning. West winds become gusty during the day up to 20 kt. These subside overnight. Ceilings likely thicken and lower Friday night into Saturday with -RA. && .MARINE... Short Term...Showers and fog will precede a cold front over the waters into the early part of tonight, but then fog should gradually diminish over the waters overnight with drier air and west to southwest winds behind the boundary. Winds stay south to southwest Wednesday while remaining below SCA levels through at least the morning, but may increase to SCA levels Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night as another front approaches. Long Term...5 ft waves may still be over the eastern coastal waters Thursday, but a general trend down is anticipated into the evening as a cold front pushes off the coast. Conditions then remain below SCA into the weekend. High pressure passes to the north, but may not be strong enough to keep rain suppressed to the south. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Combs SHORT TERM...Combs LONG TERM...Cornwell