121
FXUS61 KGYX 081050
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
650 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A break in the unsettled weather arrives today and Monday as
high pressure briefly builds. Conditions become unsettled next
week with widespread showers Tuesday. Fog and drizzle is also
possible Monday night. Improving conditions are then expected
for the second half of the week, with perhaps yet another
unsettled Saturday in store.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
620 AM Update...Lots of valley fog remains early this morning,
mainly in the river valleys of New Hampshire. An SPS remains in
effect until 1230z. Otherwise, hazy skies also continue and this
should remain the case for much of the day.

Previously...

High pressure will build into the area from the northwest this
morning, then more offshore by this evening. A much nicer day is
expected today as compared to Saturday with variable clouds,
dry weather, much less humidity, and highs mainly in the 70s.
The sky will be milky at times due to mid and high level smoke
emanating from wildfires in Canada.

Any early morning valley fog, locally dense, will lift quickly
after sunrise as low level mixing commences. An afternoon
seabreeze will work in on the coastal plain as the center of the
high pressure area moves offshore allowing for afternoon
cooling there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
In general a fair weather night is expected tonight as high
pressure ridging holds firm. However, given the recent rains
valley fog can be expected again. In addition with low level
winds from the east over the ocean the possibility exists for
some low stratus and fog on the coast plain with a low
probability of patchy drizzle.

A short wave trough approaches on Monday but the day should be
largely dry. A few showers or some drizzle will be possible
across southern NH and coastal ME during the afternoon. As such,
high temperatures are expected to be about 5, perhaps 10 degrees
colder than those experienced today (Sunday).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Onshore flow and increasing moisture ahead of the next system
will bring a chance of fog and low stratus Monday night into
early Tuesday.

Going into Tuesday, skies stay mostly cloudy and cooler as moisture
further increases with an upper low moving across the Great Lakes,
likely bringing the next round of widespread precipitation to the
region. There`s still some timing differences among the models, but
in general most of the precip is expected to be from late Tuesday
morning through the early overnight hours Tuesday night before
conditions start to dry out. It`s also possible eastern areas may
not see much precip during the day on Tuesday. PWATs are
forecast to approach 1.50" which is again around the 90th percentile
for this time of year. This could again allow some pretty efficient
rain rates with lift further aided by being in the right entrance of
an upper jet. While not zero, ensembles currently have 10% or less
for QPF exceeding an inch of rain with this system, which is good
news with all the rain from Friday and today.

Warmer and drier conditions return for Weds-Fri, but the 500mb
pattern still shows broad troughing across eastern Canada extending
down into Northeast. This will probably allow a few weak
waves/fronts to cross through and bring low-end shower chances,
especially Weds-Thurs.

Now for the real question...will we break the streak and finally
have a dry Saturday? It`s too early to tell. Today`s 12Z GFS
latched onto lifting a frontal boundary back north into the
region, which would keep rain in the forecast. There`s more
support within the GFS individual ensembles for this while
there`s more of a signal for dry weather within the ECMWF camp.
However, the incoming 12Z operational ECMWF is now showing a
wave approaching from the north and west. Time will tell, but
for now the forecast carries the NBM PoPs of 20% to 30%.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term...Early morning LIFR conditions in valley fog will
rapidly improve by 13z as low level mixing takes place. Other
VFR conditions are expected today with afternoon seabreeze
likely on the coastal plain. VFR expected tonight other than
valley fog. However, there is a low probability of some low
stratus and/or advection fog on the coastal plain tonight as the
low level winds turn easterly. Mainly VFR Monday.

Long Term...Fog and low ceilings are looking likely Monday
night, and then more flight restrictions and widespread precip
comes Tuesday into Tuesday night with mostly VFR Weds-Thurs
although a few showers are still possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Small craft conditions are not expected through
Monday although areas of dense fog will be possible, especially
for Monday night, if not tonight.

Long Term...In general conditions looks to stay below SCA levels
this week. A couple of weak lows may pass near or across the
waters Tues and then another Wednesday into Thursday. Low
pressure remains near the Canadian Maritimes through late week,
and then high pressure may build in sometime next weekend.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NOAA Weather radio tramsmitters remain off the air due to a
phone line issue. We hope to have them back in service today.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ007>009-
     012>014-033.
     Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MEZ025>028.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Ekster
SHORT TERM...Ekster
LONG TERM...Combs