809 FXUS61 KGYX 021937 AFDGYX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 337 PM EDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... After a isolated shower or two this afternoon, high pressure builds in from the south tonight through mid week. Dry weather results with temperatures and humidity on the upward trend. A series of frontal systems will bring chances for showers and storms Thursday into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Cumulus has again been prolific across the CWA today, but deeper towers have been hard to come by. Will keep mention of isolated showers in for remainder of the afternoon as weak wave looks to pass by early evening. Tonight, winds become calm and skies trend clear. Decoupling will allow for cooling conditions overnight, with most locations matching last night`s lows (lower 40s), or lower. Coolest spots are forecast to be northern NH valley locations as well as some drainage spots down the NH/ME border like Fryeburg and Sanford. Sans valley fog development, temperatures could bottom in the mid 30s here. Patchy frost would result, but opted away from Frost Adv tonight given how long days are and current dew point temps are around the mid 30s this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... High pressure moves over the East Coast Tuesday, and will bring sunny conditions with light breeze. Background flow is weak, and should allow for a sea breeze to move inland early to mid afternoon. High temps will be warmer still, pushing into the mid 70s for most locations inland, and upper 70s for southern NH. Overall airmass will continue warming into midweek, and Tuesday night temps fall back into the lower 50s under mostly clear skies once again. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper ridge will be fully established over New England on Wednesday with another mostly sunny and dry day with temperatures expected to be well into the 80s away from the coast based on mixing profiles. A few spots in western and southern NH may even get to 90. It will start to feel slightly more humid as dewpoints start to climb into the 50s. By Thursday, the ridge breaks down as a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front, it will get just as warm, if not warmer than Wednesday with temperatures again well into the 80s away from the coast with some low 90s possible. For reference, if Concord reaches 90 on either Wednesday or Thursday, it would be the first 90 degree day since August 2, 2024. For Manchester, it would be the first 90 degree day since August 28, 2024. The warm temperatures will add instability, and with lift from the cold front approaching, chances for showers and storms will increase through the afternoon with the highest chances farther inland. There does look to be potential for strong to severe storms, but the shear is looking marginal at around 25-30 kt and may be a limiting factor. Still, winds and hail would be the hazards to watch for. High rain rates are also possible as PWATS are forecast to increase above the 90th percentile for early June and will have to watch for hydro issues in any slow-moving or persistent convection. Showers and storms will diminish in coverage and intensity Thursday evening with the loss of heating and as the front pushes just far enough off to the south and east. The rest of the night should be dry. The first part of Friday will continue to be dry with temperatures remaining warm, but not as warm. Rain chances then increase later in the day and remain high (70%) through Saturday as the front lifts back north and lingers across the areas as waves of low pressure move overhead. Ensembles have trended slightly higher on probabilities for PWATS remaining above 1.50" (90th percentile) for this time frame, so will have to keep a close eye on where the front sets up along with other factors for heavy rainfall or flooding potential. A few storms could occur too. There could be lingering showers into Sunday, but there`s a good signal in the ensembles for a drying trend going into Monday as high pressure makes a return with the front and low pressure forecast to move east of the region. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Short Term...VFR is expected through Tuesday night as high pressure moves towards the East Coast. The calm night tonight may allow for some patchy valley fog in vicinity to some terminals, but confidence is low enough to keep this out of TAFs at this time. Lighter winds Tuesday with continuing mostly sunny skies. A afternoon seabreeze may give coastal terminals a wind shift and bump in gusts temporaraly early to mid afternoon. Long Term...VFR through Wednesday night but will then have to start watching for fog or low stratus along the coast Thursday. A cold front also approaches Thursday with increasing chances for showers and storms in the afternoon/evening, which could bring localized IFR restrictions, especially away from the coast. A break in precip is expected in the precip Thursday night into the first part of Friday, but fog and low stratus could bring additional restrictions. Showers are likely later in the day Friday through Saturday as the front remains across the area. && .MARINE... Short Term...Winds will continue to reduce as high pressure nears the East Coast. Only other item of note will be onshore seabreeze Tuesday afternoon as high pres remains overhead. Long Term...Southerly flow continues across the waters Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front approaches on Thursday. As moisture increases Thursday, will probably start seeing fog across the waters as well as increasing chances for showers and maybe a storm later in the day. The front looks to cause a brief wind shift to the west or northwest Thursday night/early Friday and then a return to southerly on Friday with a seabreeze. The wind direction going into Saturday is a little more uncertain as it depends on where the front sets up, but it looks that winds will be more out of the north or northwest by Sunday as the low pressure and frontal boundary begin exiting to the east. So all in all conditions look to remain below SCA levels, but there could be a chance of SCA conditions Friday or Saturday. && .GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Cornwell SHORT TERM...Cornwell LONG TERM...Combs