600 FXUS65 KLKN 082057 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 157 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * This afternoon there is a 15%-35% chance of thunderstorms along the US-50 corridor, with a 10%-20% isolated thunderstorms along the I-80 corridor this evening. * Warming trend continues through Tuesday * Precipitation chances increase across Northern Nevada Monday through mid week * Quiet pattern returns for late week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Saturday) Issued at 154 PM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday Sunday both the upper low and the upper ridge will begin to drift east and eventually weaken further as they combine over the Great Basin. This shift will help push the boundary northward again, allowing mid level moisture to surge toward US-50, and eventually up to I-80 by late Sunday evening. For storm and shower chances, a 15% to 35% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the US-50 corridor Sunday afternoon, then by Sunday evening a 10% to 20% chance for showers or a storm will develop northward up to the I-80 corridor. Even with moisture on the rise, high temperatures will continue to trickle up as well as highs reach the mid 80s to mid 90s. Lows also keep pace as temperatures will only fall into the mid 50s to mid 60s under partly cloudy skies. Winds Sunday will be light out of the north at 5 MPH to 15 MPH. As the boundary shift north Sunday wind to the south of the boundary will become southerly to SW at 5 MPH to 10 MPH. Monday, upper level high over low pair will be moving through Nevada as both continue to weaken each other. The boundary that has served as the focus for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development in the afternoon and evenings will be between Battle Mountain and central Lander and Eureka counties, this boundary will again shift north bringing mid level moisture up into northern Nevada bringing southerly winds and a 15% to 35% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to just north of a Winnemucca to Elko to West Wendover line. To the north of this line light northerly winds and drier mid levels will keep conditions mostly quiet. Precipitation mounts for the lucky will be light at around 0.05, and storms that do form will have strong outflow winds up to 40 MPH and a few lightning strikes. Highs Monday will range from the middle 80s to mid 90s, with cloud development taking the edge of the heat slightly. Lows Monday night into Tuesday will fall into the low 50s to low 60s. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Sunday Tuesday and Wednesday storm chances will continue for northern Nevada while central Nevada sees a break from the storms. A northern stream shortwave trough will serve as a kicking system pushing the weekends low east. This trough will generate a 20% to 40% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms for areas along and north of the Interstate 80 corridor, for the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday, and a 20% to 40% chance for Wednesday. Again like Monday any amounts for those who see storms will be light at around 0.01 to 0.10. By Wednesday evening a weak cold front will enter the Silver state pushing south before stalling around US-6. This front will bring end to the storm chances, but will act to serve as a reset for temperatures north of the front. For central NV, high pressure will be building in over southern California up into southern Nevada, this will help raise heights over central Nevada and smother storm or shower chances. For Thursday through Sunday high pressure will continue to build in from the south west and will either act to push out or scour out any residual mid level moisture across the Great Basin. This ridge will slowly shift east over northern Mexico, to become established over the Rio Grande Valley by the weekend. As such SW flow will be dominant during this period, leading to quiet conditions, a slow warming trend, and mostly clear skies through the weekend. Temperatures will continue to warm up through Tuesday, eventually reaching the mid 80s to mid 90s Wednesday afternoon. With the front passing through Wednesday evening highs Thursday and Friday will ease a bit for northern Nevada with temperatures in the low 80s to low 90s, central Nevada will see highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. As the weekend approaches and high pressure builds in. temperatures will recover back into the mid 80s to mid 90s, while central Nevada will see high warming into the upper 80s to upper 90s, with a few locations approaching 100 by Sunday afternoon. Overnight low will follow a divergent trend to highs as moisture and clouds decrease, lows will start in the mid 50s to mid 60s Wednesday and Thursday morning, the low cool back into the upper 40s to upper 50s through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions at all terminal sites through Tuesday. Mid level moisture moving northward along a boundary this afternoon will lead to a 15% to 35% chance for isolated to scattered showers across central, and parts of NE Nevada this afternoon and again on Monday. VCTS will be possible for KELY, KTPH, and KEKO between 22Z and 03Z. Any storms that do form will dissipate quickly after sunset, with gusty outflow winds up to 35KT, brief heavy rain, and a few lightning strikes being the main hazards. Winds to the north of the boundary will be light out of the W to WNW at 5KT to 10KT, winds south of the boundary will be out of the SW at 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues with the ASOS. && .FIRE WEATHER...Advancing boundary moving northward from central Nevada will bring northward Sunday, as the upper low to the west finally moves onshore and through the Silver state. Chances will be low but a 15% to 35% chance for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible starting in central Nevada this afternoon, with storm chances expanding north to include a 10% to 20% chance for the I-80 corridor during evening hours Sunday. Monday through Wednesday precipitation chances will continue for northern Nevada as a transiting upper level shortwave clips the region generating another 15% to 35% chance for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Winds will gradually shift from northerly to out of the SW as the boundary moves north, but speed will remain light at 5 MPH to 15 MPH. Thursday through Sunday winds shift out of the SW at 10KT to 20KT as high pressure builds in form the southwest. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98