412
FXUS65 KLKN 162103
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
103 PM PST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM PST Tue Dec 16 2025

* Unseasonably warm each afternoon through the weekend

* Periods of precipitation, focused across Northern Nevada,
  lasting through the week

* Strong to very strong west-southwest wind gusts in Northern &
  Central Nevada from Wednesday morning to Wednesday afternoon

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly cloudy across northern
and central Nevada this afternoon. The two main synoptic features
are an expansive ridge off the southwestern coast of the United
States and a deep upper level low pressure system over the Gulf of
Alaska. Isolated, light rain showers have popped up in the north
and will be on and off for the rest of the afternoon and early
evening. For tonight, a 250mb jet will impinge upon Oregon and
California, into northwestern Nevada. Light, showery precipitation
is expected to continue and spread east during the overnight
across portions of northern Nevada, north of and including the
I-80 corridor. Forecast precipitation amounts through the
overnight are expected to remain below a tenth of an inch across
most valley locations in the north. Overnight lows will be in the
30s and 40s.

For Wednesday and Wednesday night, all models are depicting the
development of strong winds at the surface and aloft. Southwest to
west winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph will be developing
during the early morning hours but these winds are expected to
increase in the late morning to early afternoon periods. A fairly
robust 250mb jet of 150 to 160 knots will be just north of the
forecast area out of the west and southwest. 700 mb winds across
northern Nevada will be 40 to 50 knots in the morning, increasing
to 50 to 65 knots or more by late morning to early afternoon hours.
The strongest winds are expected to be over Elko county. Previous
shifts have issued wind advisories for much of the forecast area
and these look good. However, the wind probabilities for stronger
winds exist in portions of south-central Elko county. Winds
speeds in these locations have a greater than a sixty to seventy
percent chance of seeing gusts of 58 mph or more. Have therefore
upgraded the wind advisory for zones 031, 033, 034, and 039 to a
high wind warning. All times will be carried over without
adjustment. Light, showery precipitation will also develop further
south and east with a southernmost boundary being US Highway 50.
Snow levels will continue to be at or above 6500 feet for much of
the day, though some cooler air is expected to move in during the
latter portions of the afternoon in the northern portions of Elko
and Humboldt counties. Storm total precipitation amounts will
generally be a tenth of an inch or lower, though higher amounts to
a quarter to a third of an inch. Snow amounts will be limited to
the higher elevation locations. Highs will be warm with readings
in the 50s to low 60s. Precipitation is expected to slowly wind
down during the early portions of the overnight with lows in the
20s and 30s.

Thursday through next Monday, periods of showery precipitation
are expected through this timeframe as model solutions keep an
upper ridge well off the southwest coast with an upper trough off
the coast of British Columbia. The flow will generally remain out
of the west and so not expecting much change in temperature
regime. Look for above normal highs each day with readings in the
50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s. Winds
will remain breezy each afternoon along the northern sections of
the forecast area, north of I-80 with gusts to 30 to 40 mph.
Friday afternoon will be breezy at all locations. Overnight lows
will be in the 30s and 40s.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Bumped up NBM wind speeds and
gusts across select locations to warning criteria based off of
EC/GFS model and sounding data. Confidence is also high in
above normal temperatures as flow remains westerly with no
noteworthy cold pushes.

&&


.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through the next 24 hours,
although ceilings will be lowering as the period progresses.
Showers are expected near KWMC/KBAM/KEKO as early as 22Z today and
are expected to persist through 18-00Z tomorrow. Winds are
expected to increase overnight with KWMC/KBAM/KEKO gusting up to
25KT by midnight. Winds in northern Nevada continue to increase
through the early morning with KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV gusting up to
35KT by 15Z. Winds are expected to peak at all sites between 18Z
and 00Z tomorrow, with the northern sites gusting up to 45KT, KELY
gusting up to 25KT, and KTPH expected to be mostly unaffected,
with winds around 10KT. Winds above 30KT may also be associated
with blowing dust and decreased visibility.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 PM PST Wednesday
NVZ030-035>038.

High Wind Warning from midnight tonight to 8 PM PST Wednesday
NVZ031-033-034-039.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...94