127
FXUS65 KVEF 111036
AFDVEF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
336 AM PDT Fri Apr 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Warming continues today with temperatures 15 to
20 degrees above seasonal normals. A passing system will bring gusty
southwest winds to the region today and Saturday. This system will
also gradually drop temperatures a few degrees each day through the
start of next week, but temperatures will remain well-above normal
despite this gradual drop.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday.
An approaching shortwave will move into the Pacific Northwest
through the day today, which will deamplify the ridge over the
Desert Southwest. Despite decreasing heights, the resulting
increased winds will enhance vertical mixing, which will allow
temperatures to climb an additional 1 to 3 degrees compared to
yesterday. As such, there are a number of daily high temperature
records in jeopardy today at local climate sites including Las
Vegas, Bishop, Needles, Barstow-Daggett, and Desert Rock-Mercury.
The latest guidance has an 8% chance of 100 degrees in Las Vegas
today, so Las Vegas seeing their first recorded 100 degrees in April
this weekend is unlikely. That said, valley locations will see
increased Heat Risk to "Moderate", which is Level 2 on a scale of 0
to 4, while all other locations below 7500 feet will see "Minor"
Heat Risk, which is Level 1. These levels do NOT mean that any one
individual will "only have minor or moderate impacts". These levels
mean that the general population as a whole who have access to water
and air conditioning may not experience impacts... However, those
who are sensitive to heat, who are traveling from out of town, who
are out in the sun without shade or access to air conditioning, who
are not adequately hydrated, and/or who are consuming alcohol,
caffeine, or other drugs will be affected.
The trough axis associated with the aforementioned shortwave will
push through the region Saturday and Sunday, which will further
increase south-southwesterly wind gusts across the forecast area.
Saturday will be the gustiest day, with widespread gusts between 20
and 30 mph and gusts between 30 and 40 mph in the higher terrain.
Not anticipating a need for widespread wind-related headlines, but
will continue to pay close attention to the southern Owens Valley
where downslope west winds are possible across Highway 395 at and
south of Olancha. The HREF only extends through 5pm on Saturday at
this time, but indicates a few hours of speeds 40-45 mph possible in
this area.
Otherwise, temperatures gradually drop by a couple of degrees each
day through the weekend, but still remain well-above normal with
widespread "Minor" Heat Risk.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday.
Temperatures will continue to slowly cool early next week as a Rex
Block type pattern will set up over the region; however, above-normal
conditions are expected even though each day is a few degrees cooler
than the previous. Wednesday will be the "coldest" day of the
stretch and high temperatures will still be 8-10 degrees above
normal. With PWATs remaining below-normal and general upper level
height rises remaining in place over the region, it should remain
dry through the period. Increased south to southwest breezes will be
possible as the two upper level systems battle it out. Nothing
currently shows a set up that would result in high impact winds,
which matches probabilities for strong wind gusts which are minor to
none. There is a low chance for minor impacts due to wind gusts
over 40 MPH at times, but any impacts would be isolated to wind
prone areas. While there is uncertainty in the overall weather
details as models struggle to resolve the Rex Block pattern and how
it may evolve, the is some confidence that the weather will not be
significantly impactful weather next week.
&&
.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
winds following mainly diurnal patterns will continue through
early Friday afternoon. After 22Z, winds are expected to shift to
the south-southwest, increasing to 10KT, and veer to the southwest
after 00Z, becoming elevated and at least intermittently gusty
thereafter. Gusts during the late afternoon and evening are
expected to range from 15-20KT, with sustained speeds around
10-12KT. After 06-07Z, winds veer further to the southwest, with
sustained speeds expected to increase closer to 15KT with gusts to
20-25KT through the end of the forecast period. Uncertainties
with this forecast include precise timing of the wind shift Friday
afternoon, as well as the frequency and magnitude of gusts.
However, confidence was high enough to include mention. Otherwise,
VFR conditions prevail, with increasing mid and high clouds late
in the period.
For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Through Friday
afternoon, winds at area terminals will generally follow diurnal
patterns, with speeds remaining under 10KT. KVGT and KHND will
follow similar trends to KLAS, with winds veering to the southwest
after 21-22Z, increasing and becoming gusty, with gusts to around
20KT possible, especially toward the evening. At KBIH, gusty up-
valley winds gusting to around 20KT are expected to develop after
21Z, with winds shifting to the southwest after 12/00Z, and subtly
decreasing thereafter. KDAG will have westerly to northwesterly
winds through Friday afternoon, when winds are expected to back to
the west-southwest, increasing and becoming gusty with sustained
speeds around 15-20KT and gusts to 25-30KT developing after 12/00Z
through the end of the period. In the Lower Colorado River
Valley, winds at KIFP and KEED will remain under 10KT through 22Z,
before shifting to the west-southwest, increasing to around
10-12KT. The main difference is a brief period of gusts is
expected at KIFP during the afternoon and early evening. VFR
conditions will otherwise prevail, with passing mid and high
clouds with bases between 15-25kft.
&&
.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature within 3 degrees of the daily record.
The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).
MAX FRI, APR 11
Record (Yr)
Las Vegas 93 (2023)*
Bishop 86 (2018)*
Needles 102 (1936)*
Daggett 93 (2014)*
Kingman 96 (1936)
Desert Rock 87 (2014)*
Death Valley 108 (1989)
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Phillipson
CLIMATE...Meltzer
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