243
FXUS65 KREV 062253
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
253 PM PST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

* Periods of snow showers continue through this evening, with
  potential for light snow accumulations over western Nevada
  valley floors.

* Drier weather returns Friday, with a warming trend through
  Sunday.

* Active weather returns next week, with increased chances for a
  stronger storm next Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Snow showers continue this afternoon and evening, mainly along a
band of snow moving south associated to the wrap-around moisture
of the upper level system leaving the region late this evening
and tomorrow. As of the time of this writing, the radar was
showing a line/cluster of showers developing from southern Lassen
into central Churchill county. This activity will continue its
southward track, and most likely bring some impacts to the
afternoon and evening commute. Some areas may have already gone up
above freezing early this afternoon, but any showers that develop
will become snow as the air column quickly saturates down to the
wet bulb temperature. Therefore, expect snow, although amounts
will be relatively light. However, there is a low chance for some
snow showers to become more convective resulting in localized
higher amounts.

Behind this system conditions improve tonight, but it will be a
cold morning. Morning lows will be in the teens and low 20s across
most of the area. Isolated locations in the Sierra will be in the
single digits or below 0F. Morning temperatures will warm-up a
few degrees each day through early next week. The rise in morning
temperatures is associated to an upper ridge moving into the area
this weekend. This also means that our afternoon temperatures
will rise to seasonal values by Sunday. Low 60s for western NV
valleys, mid 40s to mid 50s NE CA and Sierra, and Sierra crest 30s
to low 40s.

Early next week conditions deteriorate again. At least the last
few model runs continue to diminish the threat of hazardous
weather early next week. There is some divergence of solutions,
but the trend is indicating the first upper low to pass through
the region taking a southerly trajectory. Therefore, it looks
like some snow is possible in the Sierra, especially the farther
south we go. Ensemble members of the GFS/CMC/ECMWF also show snow
amounts generally below 2 inches across the Sierra. The NBM mean
guidance keeps amounts below 1 inch through Tuesday afternoon.
Probability of reaching an inch of snow is 10-40% per the NBM.

The strongest system that will be affecting the region comes early
on Wednesday morning. Ensemble and deterministic guidance is
starting to come together about the duration of the next system. A
deep strong upper trough passes through the Great Basin and
Desert Southwest between Wednesday and Thursday. Ensemble members
continue to show significant amounts of snow across the region.
However, there is still plenty of spread for snow accumulations.
So don`t get stuck with any amounts yet. We should have a better
understanding about how much we will get late this weekend.

-HC

&&

.AVIATION...

Another day of VFR to IFR conditions. The lowest CIGS and VIS will
be associated to snow showers. Snow will continue mainly along a
band moving south this afternoon and early evening for most TAF
sites, except KMMH. Snow should be done by 00-03Z this evening.
For KMMH, it will be affected in the late afternoon and evening
with snow ending by 06Z. However, there may be some light
lingering flurries into tomorrow morning. Mountain obscurations
also persist through 12-18Z Friday.

Winds will be generally from the north and northwest between 5-15
kts and gusts up to 20-25 kts. The strongest winds will be around
22-02Z. Then winds start to decrease overnight in valley sites.
However, gusty winds persist over mountain sites and mountain
ridges with FL100 winds around 15-30 kts from the north after
00Z. This will lead to periods of turbulence and minor LLWS. North
to northeasterly breezes return tomorrow after 18Z.

-HC

&&

.AVALANCHE...

The later stages of this storm will bring one more round of snow
showers today, mainly from midday through early evening.

Snow Water Equivalent (SWE)/Snow Amounts:

* Additional SWE up 0.10-0.30", producing snowfall amounts of 1-4
  inches this afternoon. A few sites could see up to 6" from
  heavier snow bands, especially in Mono and southeastern
  Churchill county.

Snow-Liquid Ratios and Snowfall Rates:

* Drier snow character with 13-16:1 snow-liquid ratios.

* Short bursts of heavier snow producing rates up to 1"/hour.

Ridge Top Winds:

* West to northwest winds 15-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph, shifting
  to the north-northeast overnight.

-HC

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening NVZ002.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening NVZ001-004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ071.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening CAZ072-073.

&&

$$