086
FXUS65 KVEF 210927
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
127 AM PST Sun Dec 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds are expected across the Sierra and Owens Valley
  region today and Monday with breezy conditions developing
  elsewhere.

* Mid-to-late week, widespread rainfall, isolated instances of
  flash flooding, high-elevation snowfall, and gusty winds will
  impact Christmas travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next weekend.

Active storm track aimed at northern California will keep our
region dry with just some passing high clouds for the next few
days. However, gusty winds will develop along the Sierra and Owens
Valley this afternoon in response to tightening pressure gradients
and downslope enhancement, with strongest winds favored generally
west of US-395. Elsewhere, breezy south winds will surface in the
afternoon and evening, helping to break pesky surface inversions
but may also result in better mixing and allow afternoon high
temperatures to reach near record values in some areas.

Meanwhile, we are still on track to see a significant change in
the weather by midweek as a deep trough develops off the
California coast and induces a moist southwesterly flow across our
region. Ensemble means remain quite robust with precipitation
expectations, with probabilities for 1 inch of storm total
precipitation roughly between 30-60 percent across the desert
terrain north of I-40, and near certain the higher elevations.
Snow levels remain somewhat uncertain thanks to the influx of warm
and subtropical air with this storm system, with snow levels
generally above 7000 feet and 8000 feet in the Sierra and Spring
Mountains respectively, but will gradually trend lower after
Christmas. Heavy, wet snow accumulations can be expected above the
snow level. The best chances for precipitation remain focused
around Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, but additional troughing
digging onshore may attempt to swing inland late in the week or
over the weekend with additional ran and mountain snow chances.

Overall, it will be an active week with slick roads, high
elevation winter weather, and periods of low clouds and wind. This
will surely impact regional travel both on the roads and in the
air so plan for the weather if traveling in the area.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
High confidence that winds following typical directional patterns
will continue through at least mid Sunday afternoon with speeds less
than 7 knots. After 22z, winds may shift more southeast to south and
briefly gust to around 10-12 knots. Confidence in these gusts is
less than 20% as winds may remain under 7 knots into the evening,
but confidence is higher in the direction. VFR conditions will
prevail, with periods of high clouds at or above 15KFT.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds overnight will
follow typical light wind patterns with most areas seeing winds less
than 10 knots. The exception will be KDAG where west winds will
occasionally gust to 15 knots at times. Winds will remain less than
10 knots over most areas through early afternoon, but increasing
south to southwest winds at most TAF sites are likely with gusts up
to 15 knots possible. KBIH will see light winds in the morning, but
have low confidence in winds during the afternoon as winds Sunday
afternoon will either become gusty out of the northwest or continue
to be southeast at 10KT. SCT-BKN at or above 15kft will continue to
stream across the region.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record through Monday.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX            SUN, DEC 21  MON, DEC 22
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      68(2023)*    75(2014)
Bishop         70(2018)*    74(2014)
Needles        75(2005)*    74(2020)*
Daggett        76(2018)*    78(1955)
Kingman        73(1917)     72(1906)*
Desert Rock    70(2020)*    70(2014)*
Death Valley   81(1999)     82(1914)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN       SUN, DEC 21  MON, DEC 22
               Record(Yr)   Record(Yr)

Las Vegas      53(2023)*    50(2024)*
Bishop         40(2023)*    39(2014)
Needles        58(2010)     60(1904)
Daggett        53(1981)*    59(1955)
Kingman        51(1904)     46(2005)*
Desert Rock    44(2010)*    44(1994)*
Death Valley   60(1914)     70(1914)
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Gorelow

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