279 FXUS65 KVEF 170501 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1001 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures today will give way to cooler, unsettled weather going into the weekend. A storm system will bring gusty winds Thursday and Friday with the chance for showers and a few thunderstorms across the area. && .UPDATE..Winds remain breezy across the region as southwest winds increased with the strengthening pressure gradient. Widespread gusts 20-30 MPH have been reported so far. Gusts over 30 MPH have been reported in the Western Mojave Desert, and these winds are expected to increase further with the strenghtening 850mb jet and terrain enhancement. The Wind Advisory has gone into effect for this area as increasing winds and the potential for wind impacts are likely at times tonight through Thursday. Elsewhere, winds will drop back slightly but continue to gust 15-25 MPH through eastern San Bernardino, CLark, into Mohave County tonight. Current satellite suggests a deformation zone is setting up over Inyo County through southern Nevada into southwest Utah. The HRRR has been hinting at this set up in the past few runs and wants to develop scattered showers as the atmosphere stretches and squeezes itself out, which is what is starting to happen as latest radar returns show isolated showers from Olancha, CA to Desert Rock, NV to Hiko, NV. Isolated showers may continue over this area through the night, however rainfall will be light as PWATs are low and dewpoints remain in the teens to 20s. The better moisture and forcing will arrive Thursday morning and afternoon, until then precipitation will be un-impactful as it struggles to organized or overcome the dry low levels. Earlier today, thunder was reported at times in Inyo County into the central Great Basin, but this should end with sunset as instability wanes overnight. Further south, it will remain dry tonight. -Nickerson- && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...348 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .SHORT TERM...through Friday Night. A complicated weather pattern is setting up over the next few days as low pressure off the southern California coast slowly transitions to an open wave and moves ashore. As it translates eastward, southwesterly wind will pick up in the western Mojave Desert, bringing winds gusting to 40 mph or more. As such a Wind Advisory begins this afternoon and lasts into Friday morning for that area. To add to the complexity, a strong, cold low pressure system will be diving southward from western Canada. The associated cold front will bring strong northerly winds gusting 45 to 50 mph to Esmeralda and central Nye counties. A wind advisory is in place for those areas from Thursday morning through Friday evening. The cold front will also bring showers and thunderstorms to much of southern Nevada and Mohave County Thursday. Lift associated with the front and instability due to the cold upper airmass behind the front will make thunderstorms a real possibility Thursday afternoon and evening. Rainfall totals will generally be low, below 0.10 inches with northern Mohave County receiving around .25 inches. Locally higher rainfall totals are possible in stringer thunderstorm cells. The highest elevations in the mountains could see a small bit of snow, but nothing impactful. Very dry and cool air will be in place Friday with temperatures across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona a good 10 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday. As we head into the weekend, ensemble guidance has the closed low pushing out to the east, leaving us under a drier northwesterly or zonal flow. Not only do precipitation chances wane, but temperatures begin to moderate to seasonal values. By Sunday, forecast highs are near or slightly above normal, and hold fairly steady into next week. The synoptic pattern in the extended will favor inside sliders or shortwaves passing well to our north. As these move by, periods of gusty winds are possible. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Breezy south-southwest winds continue overnight, becoming gusty again by late morning or early afternoon. In the late afternoon, precipitation concerns grow as a line of showers and isolated storms forms along a cold front and sags south. Best chances in the Vegas Valley are between 01z and 05z. Lightning, light to moderate rain, and erratic winds are the main concerns. There is a 30-40% chance of a thunderstorm and associated outflow gusts in excess of 30 knots, with some models showing as high as 50 knots. CIGs could drop as low as 8kft if convection moves over the terminal. Precipitation chances quickly wane between 05z and 07z, resulting in rapid improvement in sky conditions. Lighter westerly or northwesterly winds overnight. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Southerly to westerly breezes continue across most of the area tonight and Thursday. The exception to this is BIH, where northerly breezes prevail through the TAF period. Gusts 20-30 knots in most locations, with stronger winds at DAG. Thursday afternoon, a line of showers and isolated storms will develop along a cold front from southwest Utah to the Sierra. Lightning, light to moderate rain, and erratic winds are the main concerns. Impacts at BIH possible from 21z-03z and in the Las Vegas Valley from 00z-05z. Behind the front, sky conditions will rapidly improve and winds transition to a more westerly or northwesterly direction. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Berc LONG TERM...Woods AVIATION...Woods For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter