279
FXUS65 KVEF 170501
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1001 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures today will give way to
cooler, unsettled weather going into the weekend. A storm system
will bring gusty winds Thursday and Friday with the chance for
showers and a few thunderstorms across the area.
&&

.UPDATE..Winds remain breezy across the region as southwest winds
increased with the strengthening pressure gradient. Widespread gusts
20-30 MPH have been reported so far. Gusts over 30 MPH have been
reported in the Western Mojave Desert, and these winds are expected
to increase further with the strenghtening 850mb jet and terrain
enhancement. The Wind Advisory has gone into effect for this area as
increasing winds and the potential for wind impacts are likely at
times tonight through Thursday. Elsewhere, winds will drop back
slightly but continue to gust 15-25 MPH through eastern San
Bernardino, CLark, into Mohave County tonight.

Current satellite suggests a deformation zone is setting up over
Inyo County through southern Nevada into southwest Utah. The HRRR
has been hinting at this set up in the past few runs and wants to
develop scattered showers as the atmosphere stretches and squeezes
itself out, which is what is starting to happen as latest radar
returns show isolated showers from Olancha, CA to Desert Rock, NV to
Hiko, NV. Isolated showers may continue over this area through the
night, however rainfall will be light as PWATs are low and dewpoints
remain in the teens to 20s. The better moisture and forcing will
arrive Thursday morning and afternoon, until then precipitation will
be un-impactful as it struggles to organized or overcome the dry low
levels. Earlier today, thunder was reported at times in Inyo County
into the central Great Basin, but this should end with sunset as
instability wanes overnight. Further south, it will remain dry
tonight.

-Nickerson-

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...348 PM PDT Wed Apr 16 2025
.SHORT TERM...through Friday Night.

A complicated weather pattern is setting up over the next few days
as low pressure off the southern California coast slowly transitions
to an open wave and moves ashore. As it translates eastward,
southwesterly wind will pick up in the western Mojave Desert,
bringing winds gusting to 40 mph or more. As such a Wind Advisory
begins this afternoon and lasts into Friday morning for that area.
To add to the complexity, a strong, cold low pressure system will be
diving southward from western Canada. The associated cold front will
bring strong northerly winds gusting 45 to 50 mph to Esmeralda and
central Nye counties. A wind advisory is in place for those areas
from Thursday morning through Friday evening. The cold front will
also bring showers and thunderstorms to much of southern Nevada and
Mohave County Thursday. Lift associated with the front and
instability due to the cold upper airmass behind the front will make
thunderstorms a real possibility Thursday afternoon and evening.
Rainfall totals will generally be low, below 0.10 inches with
northern Mohave County receiving around .25 inches. Locally higher
rainfall totals are possible in stringer thunderstorm cells. The
highest elevations in the mountains could see a small bit of snow,
but nothing impactful. Very dry and cool air will be in place Friday
with temperatures across southern Nevada and northwest Arizona a
good 10 degrees below normal.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

As we head into the weekend, ensemble guidance has the closed low
pushing out to the east, leaving us under a drier northwesterly or
zonal flow. Not only do precipitation chances wane, but temperatures
begin to moderate to seasonal values. By Sunday, forecast highs are
near or slightly above normal, and hold fairly steady into next
week. The synoptic pattern in the extended will favor inside sliders
or shortwaves passing well to our north. As these move by, periods
of gusty winds are possible.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast
Package...Breezy south-southwest winds continue overnight, becoming
gusty again by late morning or early afternoon. In the late
afternoon, precipitation concerns grow as a line of showers and
isolated storms forms along a cold front and sags south. Best
chances in the Vegas Valley are between 01z and 05z. Lightning,
light to moderate rain, and erratic winds are the main concerns.
There is a 30-40% chance of a thunderstorm and associated outflow
gusts in excess of 30 knots, with some models showing as high as 50
knots. CIGs could drop as low as 8kft if convection moves over the
terminal. Precipitation chances quickly wane between 05z and 07z,
resulting in rapid improvement in sky conditions. Lighter westerly
or northwesterly winds overnight.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Southerly to westerly
breezes continue across most of the area tonight and Thursday. The
exception to this is BIH, where northerly breezes prevail through
the TAF period. Gusts 20-30 knots in most locations, with stronger
winds at DAG. Thursday afternoon, a line of showers and isolated
storms will develop along a cold front from southwest Utah to the
Sierra. Lightning, light to moderate rain, and erratic winds are the
main concerns. Impacts at BIH possible from 21z-03z and in the Las
Vegas Valley from 00z-05z. Behind the front, sky conditions will
rapidly improve and winds transition to a more westerly or
northwesterly direction.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berc
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Woods

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