171 FXUS65 KREV 270842 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 142 AM PDT Sun Jul 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Thunderstorms will pose a risk of small hail, strong outflows, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall today. * Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue this upcoming week with a potential uptick in storms Tuesday and Wednesday. * Typical summertime conditions of warm weather and breezy afternoons to end the month. && .DISCUSSION... We experienced another active weather day across the region on Saturday. There were several reports of heavy rain between 0.50-0.75", wind gusts upwards of 50 mph, and hail up to 0.75". Showers and storms will continue today from around Noon to 7 PM, impacting similar locations as Saturday. However, with less upper level support and an airmass that has trended drier, storm coverage will be less today compared to the last few days. Blended guidance has storm chances to 40-50% for far western NV, including the greater Reno area and Tahoe Basin. Western Lassen also had a 40-50% chance for storms today as well. These storm chances decrease for other areas, with generally a 10-30% in the inner basin and far northwest NV. With decent instability, we still have the chance for hail up to 0.75", and strong outflow winds up to 50 mph. Propagating outflows may produce areas of blowing dust in the W NV Basin and Range this afternoon, especially near desert sinks and playas. PWATs remain between 0.6-0.7", but faster storm motions will help curb most flooding concerns today. For the upcoming week, we`re on the eastern edge of a deep hemispheric through over the northeast Pacific. Thunderstorms don`t go away this upcoming week, with daily 15-35% chances for the Sierra and western NV. The best chances look to be Tuesday and Wednesday when models show a upper trough swinging through the area. Temperatures remain around 5-10 degrees below average today. A gradual warming trend for the upcoming week, but still remain 2-4 degrees below average for last week of July and first week of August. Overall, we`ll see comfortable daytime highs near 80F and 90F for Sierra and western Nevada communities, respectively. -McKellar && .AVIATION... Thunderstorms will be the main concern today with the highest chances (30-50% chance) at KTRK-KTVL and KRNO-KCXP-KMEV between 20Z and 02Z. Expect strong outflow gusts of 40+ kts, small hail, and frequent lightning, with heavy downpours reducing CIGS/VIS to MVFR conditions at times. There is still a slight 10-30% chance for storms in the inner-basin today, which may result in blowing dust impacts to KNFL-KLOL-KHTH among the aforementioned t-storm impacts. Additional storms are possible on Monday, with chances between 10-25% along the Sierra Front and Tahoe Basin. -McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... A brief drying trend will reduce thunderstorm chances and coverage today into early next week. However, this will also mean dry lightning becomes more likely with isolated storms. Otherwise, storms today still have the chance for hail up to 0.75" and strong outflow winds up to 50 mph. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$