518 FXUS65 KREV 080924 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 224 AM PDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected today and Monday before a drying trend begins Tuesday. * Summer-like heat continues through midweek with cooler temperatures at the end of the week. * Periods of increased breezes may impact fire, travel, and recreation from midweek onward. && .DISCUSSION... An increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected across the region this afternoon into the early evening. Weak low pressure nearing the West Coast will position a deformation zone from the Tahoe Basin into west-central Nevada with a reservoir of mid-level moisture along this boundary. Initial thunderstorm development will be focused along the higher terrain within the deformation zone, placing best chances of 40-60% in the Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward, as well as Mineral County. E/SE steering flow will direct storms west of the Sierra crest while storms originating farther east drift into Mineral and southern Lyon counties. Thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflows, brief heavy downpours, small hail, and lightning. Latest CAMs hint at additional thunderstorms near and north of I-80 as numerous outflows propagate northeastward across western Nevada during the late afternoon and early evening. This is certainly conceivable given a deep and well-mixed sub-cloud layer residing across western Nevada as shown in model soundings. Strong outflow gusts of 50+ mph may impact western Nevada communities, including the Greater Reno-Carson-Minden area, with blowing dust near sinks and playas across the W NV Basin and Range. Small hail and lightning will also be possible. Showers and storms will likely persist into the evening before tapering off by midnight. July-like heat will continue through midweek with daytime highs in the 80s and 90s areawide. Yet another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms is likely Monday with best chances of 10-30% shifting northward to Lassen and N Washoe County. We`ll begin to dry out in earnest Tuesday as dry, southwest flow overspreads the region. A series of trough passages will result in periods of windy conditions from midweek onward, likely elevating fire weather concerns and impacting travel and recreation into the weekend. -Salas && .AVIATION... The primary weather concern today continues to be thunderstorms with KMMH, KTRK, and KTVL having the best odds (20-40%) of thunderstorms during the 20-03Z timeframe. A 10-30% chance of storms will exist for all other terminals this afternoon. Expect gusty outflows and sudden wind shifts, small hail, and lightning. July-like heat may also pose density altitude concerns through midweek before cooling occurs at the end of the week. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$