653 FXUS65 KVEF 261748 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1048 AM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty southwesterly winds will continue through the afternoon and into the evening as a low pressure system moves into the area. Isolated showers will accompany this system, with a dusting of snow possible in the mountains of the southern Great Basin and modest snow accumulations in the Eastern Sierra. Temperatures will remain below normal through the weekend before warming back up to above normal next week as high pressure rebuilds over the region. && .UPDATE...Latest water vapor imagery and 500 hPa RUC analysis indicates continued southwesterly flow over the region ahead of a closed low currently located over the central California Coast. As this feature translates eastward today, the pressure gradient over southeastern California, southern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona will tighten, maintaining elevated and gusty southwesterly winds over the area. The strongest of these winds are still expected to be across western portions of the area from Death Valley south across the western Mojave Desert and into the Morongo Basin, where Wind Advisories remain in effect, with additional cause for concern this afternoon at Lakes Mead and Mohave where wave heights of 1 to 3 feet are expected as winds shift more to the south. Additionally, increasing moisture and ascent ahead of this system will lend to increasing precipitation chances, especially across the Great Basin and Eastern Sierra, with snow expected mainly above 5000-6000 feet. Overall, the forecast remains on track this morning, with highs this afternoon expected to feel sharply cooler, only reaching the 60s and 70s for most, with 50s in the mountains. && .PREV DISCUSSION..224 AM PDT Sat Apr 26 2025... .SHORT TERM...Today and Tomorrow. The cut-off low off, currently churning off the coast of central California, will continue its eastward progression, moving through the Desert Southwest over the next few days. As this low pushes into the area today we will see gusty southwesterly winds continue through the day. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for Death Valley, the western Mojave Desert, and the Morongo Basin through 11:00 pm this evening. While winds will not be as strong over Lake Mead and Lake Mohave, we will see 20 to 25 mph sustained southerly winds produce 1 to 3 foot waves this afternoon. These winds and waves will make for hazardous boating conditions for small water craft. As such, a Lake Wind Advisory has been issued from noon to 8:00 pm this evening. Outside of gusty winds, this system will also bring increased chances for isolated showers to the southern Great Basin, mountains of southern Nevada, and the western portions of San Bernardino and Inyo counties. Given the cold temperatures aloft (-25 to -30 degrees Celsius at 500 mb) and the dynamic forcing associated with this system it is possible that some of these showers are more convective in nature, producing lightning. Snow levels will drop to 5,000 to 6,000 feet with this system, with minor accumulations possible in the mountains of the southern Great Basin. A Winter Weather Advisory will go into effect for the Eastern Sierra beginning at 7:00 am PDT this morning and continuing through 11:00 am PDT tomorrow. Elevations between 6,000 and 8,000 feet in the Eastern Sierra will see somewhere between 3 to 6 inches of snow with locally higher totals in the Sierra crest. This system will also bring cooler than normal temperature to the region with temperatures dropping around 7 to 12 degrees from yesterday to today. These cooler than normal temperatures will stick around on Sunday as the trough remains overhead. While Sunday will be cooler, we will see winds settle down with light showery activity continuing across the southern Great Basin. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. The trough axis remains over the southwestern United States on Monday, helping to maintain near average temperatures for this time of year. Afterwards, the trough moves east and high pressure builds Tuesday onwards. This pattern change will send highs back into above normal territory with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal by Thursday and Friday. This includes highs in the upper 80s for Las Vegas and in the 90s for the Colorado River Valley. Other than increasing temperatures, light winds and dry conditions are expected. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southwest gusts will increase into the afternoon with gusts peaking between 25 and 30 knots between 20Z and 01Z. After sunset, winds will diminish somewhat, although gusts of 20 to 25 knots will still be possible well into the evening. Gusts will end temporarily before sunrise only to redevelop by mid-morning, and then persist through tomorrow afternoon. VFR conditions should prevail in the valley through the TAF period with only FEW to SCT clouds with bases remaining AOA 12kft AGL. Northwest of the valley along the Beatty corridor, scattered showers and a few isolated thundershowers will be possible after 00Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described for Harry Reid above, except a period of light and variable winds is possible at VGT late tonight and early tomorrow morning. Winds at KBIH will favor the south- southeast direction with peak gusts between 25 and 30 kts this afternoon. VCSH is expected after 20Z, with light showers possible at the terminal between 21Z and 02Z. These showers could result in erratic gust directions at times. Northerly winds less than 12 knots are expected overnight into tomorrow morning. At KDAG, winds will prevail from the west, with gust speeds between 35 and 40 kts. VCSH is possible after 20Z through sunset. The west winds will diminish overnight, although gusts to 20 knots will still remain possible. In the lower Colorado River Valley, south to southwest winds with occasional gusts to 30 knots can be expected into the evening, followed by lighter southerly winds overnight. Gusty winds return Sunday, although speeds should be lower than today. Away from any areas of precipitation that develop, FEW to SCT clouds are forecast with bases generally remaining AOA 12kft AGL. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ UPDATE...Phillipson SHORT TERM...Stessman LONG TERM...Meltzer AVIATION...Planz For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter