232
FXUS65 KREV 040820
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
120 AM PDT Wed Jun 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon in the
  Sierra from Alpine County southward and into southern Mineral
  County.

* Slightly above average temperatures through midweek precedes a
  return of July-like temperatures and increasing HeatRisk Friday
  into the weekend.

* Thunderstorm chances and coverage may increase Friday into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be the coolest day over the next week as we`ll
gradually warm up each day into the weekend. We`ll continue to
have some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the eastern
Sierra down in Mono and Mineral counties each afternoon through at
least Friday. The SPC has the Sierra crest in Mono County under
general thunderstorms today through Friday. Additionally, our
zephyr breezes will be back each afternoon through mid-next week.

Our upper level pattern today through Friday consists of a series
of weak shortwave troughs which are setting the stage for the
convection in Mono and Mineral counties. Generally, SBCAPE values
today through Friday will range between 400-600 J/kg, right around
the lower end of what`s typical around here in the summertime. In
terms of probabilities and coverage, Mono County has around a 30%
chance with equal chances for lightning today through Friday
afternoon. In southern Mineral County there`s a 10-15% chance for
a stray shower with similar chances for lightning through Friday.
Thursday only, the showers look to creep further north into
Douglas/Southern Lyon/Alpine counties, adding a 20-30% chance of
storms and lightning in those areas. DCAPE looks to be around 600-
900 J/kg, so expect outflow gusts around these storms to be up to
40 mph. The main impacts from the thunderstorms today through
Friday include gusty winds, small hail less than 0.25" in
diameter, occasional lightning, and heavy downpours.

Starting Saturday, a cut-off low off the coast moves onshore,
increasing chances for thunderstorms along the Sierra crest from
northeast CA down to Mono County. There is still a lot of
variability in the models for storm coverage this weekend due to
different solutions of where that low is going to track. But what
is certain this weekend are the temperatures. Keep your
sunglasses, water bottles, and hats handy because western NV is
looking to rise into the mid-90`s and in the Sierra the low 80`s
Saturday-Tuesday.


-Justin

&&

.AVIATION...

There`s a 30% chance for showers and thunderstorms near KMMH this
afternoon between 20Z-04Z. Winds will be light and mainly from
the west-northwest today, with gusts up to 15 kts at all area
terminals in the afternoon. KMMH may see erratic gusts around the
thunderstorms up to 35 mph. Primary impacts from thunderstorms
include gusty/erratic winds, small hail <0.25", and occasional
lightning. Otherwise, VFR conditions and mostly sunny skies will
prevail today.

-Justin

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$