698 FXUS65 KLKN 090922 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 222 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * 15-35% chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon with light precipitation amounts. * Above normal temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s. * Areas of Moderate HeatRisk this week. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) Issued at 141 AM PDT Mon Jun 9 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak surface boundary remains draped across central Nevada, which will be the impetus for scattered shower and thunderstorms once again Monday afternoon along the US 50 and I-80 corridors (15-20% chance for thunder). Precipitable water values near 150% normal for early June are also contributing to afternoon instability with max CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg. Those with outdoor recreational plans should monitor conditions, taking shelter for thunderstorms that do occur. Areas of Moderate/Orange HeatRisk values on Monday and Tuesday as above normal temperatures continue with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Those sensitive to the heat should avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the afternoon and everyone should stay hydrated. Use appropriate sun protection and take breaks as needed. A shortwave trough and cold front clip the far northern border with Oregon and Idaho Wednesday afternoon with a 20% chance for thunderstorms, otherwise the warm conditions continue. Long-range ensemble cluster scenarios all in support of upper-level troughing moving closer to the Pacific Northwest Coast, with southwest flow aloft across the Great Basin and dry conditions with precipitable water values dropping below normal. Winds will also be on the increase as the center of the high pushes off to the east and southwest flow aloft develops. Wind gusts increase to 25 to 30 mph Wednesday through Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in timing and coverage in showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through Wednesday. High confidence in above normal temperatures and HeatRisk. Ensemble disagreement grows this weekend with how far east the developing longwave trough across the Pacific Northwest intrudes into the western U.S. A majority of long-range ensemble clusters maintain a dry forecast this weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals over the next 24 hours. Increased instability will lead to a 15-35% chance of thunderstorms across portions of central Nevada and a 10-20% in northern Nevada Monday afternoon and evening, including near KEKO, KELY and KTPH. Variable winds with gusts up to 35 kts are possible due to downdrafts and strong outflow winds from nearby storms. AMD NOT SKED at KTPH due to unstable communications. && .FIRE WEATHER... A stalled boundary over the region keeps dry thunderstorms in the forecast Monday afternoon for zones 424/425/426/427. A lesser chance of thunderstorms exists for zones 469/470/438 both afternoons as well. On Tuesday dry thunderstorms are possible in all fire zones. By midweek a storm system to the north will skirt the northern NV border increasing shower and thunderstorm activity for northern portions of 438/439/469/470 though the rest of the region looks to remain dry into the weekend. Thunderstorm activity Monday and Tuesday will keep RH values above 15% for all zones. Beyond Wednesday as precipitation chances become scarce afternoon RH values will resume normal dry level at and below 15%. Well winds in and around thunderstorms will be gusty and erratic and times sustained strong winds and winds gusts are not anticipated this week for any zone. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...99