965
FXUS65 KLKN 281912
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1212 PM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity this afternoon and
  early evening across far eastern Nevada

* Smoke from area fires causing visibility and respiratory issues
  over northern NV today

* Above average temperatures and a warming trend this week

* Increasing HeatRisk by Friday and the weekend

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues to spread west
as the week progresses. Thunderstorm potential still exists today
along the Utah border and in northeastern Elko county but chances
are low, at about 5 to 10 percent. Chances persist for tomorrow
but will be even lower than today. The high pressure system is
expected to expand far enough west by Thursday to keep moisture
out of the forecast area. Smoke from both local and Pacific
Northwest wildfires is also expected to have local impacts during
this time, particularly in northern Nevada. A very smoky morning
was observed in Elko today and several more are expected to
follow. Daytime southerly to southwest flow is expected to help
clear smoke during the days, however calm or northerly flow during
the nights will allow smoke to increase for the late night to
early morning hours. Smoke concentrations are expected to be high
enough to cause issues for sensitive groups, especially during
early morning when concentrations will be highest. The final focus
of this forecast will be the heat. Temperatures are expected to
climb as the high pressure system establishes itself and
widespread Major HeatRisk levels are expected by Friday and
especially Saturday. Widespread high temperatures of 100 to 105
degrees are expected for Saturday, which is 10 to 15 degrees above
normal for this time of year. Low temperatures will be in the
60s, somewhat limiting overnight recoveries. While the heat is
expected to be at its worst on Saturday, long term outlooks
indicate its not leaving any time soon, with intense heat favored
through mid to late next week.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Low confidence in storm
potential today and tomorrow. High confidence for smoke impacts
through at least Thursday. High confidence in extreme heat,
particularly for this weekend. No changes were made to NBM
output.

&&


.AVIATION...Smoke is not impacting any terminal at this time but
may bring periods of decreased visibility to KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV
through the next several days. South to southwest winds are
expected today, with gusty winds up to 25KT at KELY and KTPH.
There is a low chance of -TSRA at KENV today, and as usual any
storms could cause strong erratic winds. Otherwise, VFR conditions
and light winds expected through tomorrow.

&&


.FIRE WEATHER...Low percentage thunderstorm chances continue to
persist in zones 425 and 470 today. Any storms that form are not
expected to persist long enough for meaningful rainfall but could
produce new starts from lightning. Gusty erratic winds would also
accompany any storms. Otherwise, standard afternoon breezes
gusting 20-25 mph are expected across the area, along with dry and
warming conditions.

&&


.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...94
AVIATION...94
FIRE WEATHER...94