425
FXUS63 KGID 170525
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1125 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy-to-moderately-windy on Wednesday. South-southwest winds
  may gust near-to-over 40 MPH, mainly in areas north of I-80.

- Light rain, especially in northeastern areas, Wednesday
  evening into Wednesday night.

- Potential for high winds (gusts 55-60+ MPH) continue to
  increase for Thursday. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for
  the entire area.

- Mostly dry and mild through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Once again, temperatures have overachieved. Despite increasing
high clouds, temperatures have climbed into the low 60s in many
areas. Wednesday will be another warm day, but winds will
increase ahead of an approaching shortwave. Southwest winds may
gust over 40 MPH in many areas north of I-80. And a few gusts to
50 MPH aren`t out of the question (40% chance in Valley county).

Wednesday evening, the shortwave will move into the northern
Plains, bringing light precipitation to the area. This
continues to look like a rain-only event for our area, and
northeastern areas have the best chance to see some sprinkles up
to possibly 0.10".

Later Wednesday night, the cold front associated with this
system will sweep through, bringing stronger northwest winds to
the area. Given the overnight timing, this initial surge of wind
is expected to be 40-50 MPH range, with stronger winds arriving
during the daytime on Thursday. There are still some differences
amongst global ensembles on where the highest winds will occur
(GEFS favors west...EPS favors north and east). But, based on
the NBM, most of Nebraska has a 50-80% chance to see gusts in
excess of 55 MPH. Probabilities in northern Kansas are a bit
lower (30-40%), but those areas will be a bit
warmer/drier, possibly resulting in near critical fire weather
conditions.

Winds will fall of pretty quickly Thursday evening, and
temperatures are expected to drop into the teens and low
20s. After this brief cooldown on Thursday, temperatures rebound
Friday as ridging builds over the western/central CONUS. Another
front is expected to move through over the weekend. This will
bring a modest cooldown, and could bring some light
rain/snow, although the potential for any measurable
precipitation is low (10%).

Next week still looks incredibly warm for late December.
Ensemble-mean high temperatures are in the 50s, with some
deterministic runs hinting at highs in the 60s in the days
around Christmas.

&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (90%) in VFR conditions through the period.
Scattered high clouds will continue to move through the area
today.

Relatively light northwest winds turn back to the southwest and
increase for Wednesday. Gusts to 30kts are possible Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1125 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview:
Very high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility throughout,
although especially the latter 12 hours will feature gradually
increasing/lowering mid-high level clouds...and maybe even some
passing light rain showers later Wednesday evening as ceiling
perhaps lowers as far as 5-10K ft AGL. However, by far the main
issue during the latter 12 hours will be winds, as quite-breezy
southerly winds during the afternoon-evening will turn westerly
in the evening and possibly even northerly toward the very end
of the period if a cold front manages to arrive by then.
Moderately-strong low level wind shear (LLWS) also looks to
become an issue Wednesday evening.

- Wind details:
- Surface winds:
The lightest speeds will prevail these first 9 hours...mainly
at-or-below 8KT as direction transitions from variable to south-
southwesterly. Then, southerly winds steadily ramp up from 15Z
onward...but especially by/after 17-18Z...when sustained speeds
around 20KT/gusts 25-30KT will be common. Although the late
afternoon/early evening could see a slight decrease, gusts of
generally 20-25KT should persist through much of the evening as
direction shifts increasingly westerly and MAYBE northerly very
late in the period (04-06Z) IF a strong cold front arrives by
then. Will defer to later TAFs to depict the shift to
northerlies given the inherent frontal timing uncertainty still
present nearly 24 hours out.

- Low level wind shear (LLWS):
First of all, there could be some some rather marginal LLWS
mainly 15-19Z as southerly winds ramp up between 1-2K ft. AGL
and before surface winds pick up enough to diminish its
magnitude. However, with shear magnitude between the surface and
this level only expected to top out closer to 25KT than the
typical TAF-inclusion criteria of 30+KT, will keep out of TAFs.

However, stronger LLWS looks to kick in around 23Z and last
through the evening, as initially southwesterly and eventually
more westerly winds crank up to between 40-50KT in the 1-2K ft.
AGL layer, resulting in a solid 30-35KT of shear magnitude
between the surface and this level. This has been introduced to
TAFs.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Pfannkuch