745 FXUS63 KGID 092014 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 314 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A line of thunderstorms is expected to move from northwest to southeast across the area this evening and tonight. These storms may produce 60 to 70 MPH winds and localized large hail. The primary timeframe for severe weather is 8pm to 1am. - Scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop on Thursday afternoon and evening, and some of these storms may also produce large hail and damaging wind. - The overall severe risk decreases on Friday, but there is still a chance that a few strong to marginally severe storms may develop. - After a mostly dry weekend, chances for thunderstorms return Monday night into Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 The spotty convection from this morning has shifted to our east and skies are mostly clear across the forecast area. Attention then shifts to the the Nebraska panhandle where storms are beginning to develop in response to an approaching shortwave. Instability is plentiful ahead of the storms (MLCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg across the Sandhills), so the storms should continue to intensify as they push east-southeastward. Deep layer shear on the order of 30-40kts, with vectors oriented from NW to SE should allow storms to organize to one or more convective lines propagating southeastward with time. There is still some disagreement amongst the CAMs about how long-lived this complex will be, but the HRRR and RRFS have consistently been showing these storms moving into our area by around 8pm and moving across most of the forecast area before dissipating. Given the convective mode, wind is the primary threat, although some stronger updrafts could support severe hail as well. The threat for QLCS tornadoes is low thanks to limited low-level instability. Overall, storms should be progressive enough to avoid any significant hydro concerns. The HRRR does show a few storms redeveloping in the LLJ behind the main line of storms early Thursday morning, but even then QPF values are only around 1.00" on an isolated basis. Some thunderstorms could linger into the morning on Thursday, providing some uncertainty to the convective forecast for the rest of the day. The current expectation is that we should see enough clearing to push temperatures in the 90s and low 100s across most of the area, providing instability for thunderstorms to develop in the late afternoon and early evening as the shortwave continues into the area. Coverage will be scattered, with a "messier" convective mode than tonight. Again, hail and wind are the primary threats, with a relatively uniform "Slight" risk for severe storms across the entire area. A cold front then moves into the area for Friday. The primary focus given the frontal timing may be to our southeast, but there is at least some risk for strong to marginally severe storms across the entire area, especially if storms can initiate earlier in the afternoon hours. Saturday will be cooler and mostly dry in the post-frontal airmass. High temperatures may only reach the upper 70s in some spots, and there is only a low end chance for isolated showers/storms in southern parts of the area Saturday night. Sunday and Monday are expected to stay dry, with gradually warming temperatures as ridging moves into the central CONUS. Details for Tuesday onward are less certain, but global models show another trough moving into the NW CONUS, providing off and on chances for thunderstorms through the middle part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1154 AM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: The primary threat will be a line of thunderstorms moving through central Nebraska this evening. If these storms hold together, they could produce 50kt+ gusts at EAR and GRI (10-20% chance). The primary timeframe of concern is 02-06Z. Some spotty showers/storms could linger into early Thursday morning, the potential and impacts are too low to warrant a mention in this TAF. Other than the thunderstorm potential, VFR conditions are favored through the period (90% chance). Winds generally remain out of the south, but may be modified by outflow from thunderstorms late tonight. Marginal LLWS is also possible after 06Z tonight. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Mangels AVIATION...Mangels