987 FXUS63 KGID 072327 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 627 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A fairly dry 7-day period with a few isolated 10-20% chances sprinkled throughout (TUES, WED & SUN nights). - 15-25 degree warmup Tuesday with highs ranging the mid 60s to upper 70s through Friday. - Increasing Fire Weather concerns Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon (near-critical). Greatest overall risk Thursday afternoon (near- critical to critical). - A secondary warmup over the Weekend may bring highs up to the upper 70s to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Tonight and Tomorrow... A cold frontal passage early this morning setup northeasterly winds for the day and kept highs in the 50s to low 60s. One final night tonight of consecutive subfreezing temperatures is in store (upper 20s low 30s) with light 5-10 MPH winds swinging south for Tuesday. This windshift will be influenced by falling pressure into the afternoon hours of Tuesday as a weak surface low approaches the area. Winds for the day are expected to peak out around 15-20MPH with gusts as high as 30MPH possible towards eastern NE/KS. A warm front attached to the low will sweep across the area Tuesday afternoon, transpiring a quick 15-25 degree warmup, potentially sending a few of our southwestern fringes into the low 80s (20% chance). Generally much of the area will fall in the upper 60s to upper 70s. Otherwise, a few clouds may budge in from the north with a weakening ridge aloft that will turn the upper-level flow into a brief zonal pattern. Wednesday through Friday... Surface winds are expected to become northwesterly oriented starting Wednesday as the surface low center pushes on through. This should set the stage for rising pressure though the remainder of the work week. Light winds 10-15MPH gusting as high as 25MPH wednesday afternoon, will increase to 15-25MPH and gusting as high as 40MPH Thursday afternoon. These strengthening north to northwesterly winds will continue to mix in drier air down from off the rockies. Please reference the Fire Weather section for additional information on the fire weather potential. Besides a few 15% POPs for isolated showers Wednesday, the remainder of the week remains dry. Highs will continue to ride the mid 60s to mid 70s Wednesday through Friday afternoon. Winds Friday should remain light and turning south as a surface high pressure center passes over. Aloft, the stream wise jet axis will orient northwest to southeast as a upper level low deepens over the great lakes region and a western U.S. ridge amplifies. This upstream building ridge will influence the remainder of the long-term forecast period. Saturday and Beyond... Ridging in the mid-to-upper levels over the majority of the weekend will continue to suppress any precipitation chance. Another warmup Saturday and Sunday will raise temperatures up towards the upper 70s to upper 80s as southerly winds advect a warm front through the Region. Additional moisture should replenish some behind the front, allowing dewpoints to return briefly to the 50s. A shortwave trough passing through the northern plains Sunday will deepen a Dakota based low. This will likely in return drop a cold front down and through early Monday, hauling the weekend warmup and introducing 15-20% PoPs. Otherwise, a slightly cooler and drier airmass should fallow suite. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 622 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through TAF period. Light easterly winds will shift to the south overnight. Around sunrise, winds will steadily increase through the mid/late morning hours. Sustained southerly winds around 15kts and gusts around 25kts are expected during the late morning to late afternoon hours as a low moves into the area. Winds will begin to decrease around sunset. FEW- SCT cirrus are possible during the day on Tuesday, with SCT-BKN cirrus moving in at the end of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 329 PM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Western areas, mainly along and west of a line from Buffalo to Osborne counties, will reach near-critical fire weather conditions Tuesday given min RH values as low as 15-30% with 15-20 MPH southerly wind gusts. Similar conditions will be possible again on Wednesday, though winds will instead blow from the northwest. A greater portion of the area, mainly areas west of HWY-81, will likely reach near-critical fire weather conditions. Any increase in gusts could increase fire weather concerns. The most prominent Fire Weather concerns of the week will fall Thursday as northwest winds gust as high as 30-40MPH. Widespread near-critical to critical conditions will likely be met for much of the area. The overall worst conditions should mainly lie southwest of a line from Buffalo to Jewell counties. A Fire Weather Watch may be considered during our next forecast cycle as the event will then fall within our 72-hour window. A few isolated western spots of near-critical conditions could transpire Friday and Saturday with increasing concerns Sunday and next Monday. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Stump AVIATION...Davis FIRE WEATHER...Stump