327 FXUS63 KGID 121847 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 147 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly warmer and more humid conditions coming Friday and through the weekend. - Saturday night and Tuesday night seem to stand out as the best rain chances at this time. - Father`s Day weather is very warm and humid with only small chances for precipitation during the day (better chances in the evening/overnight). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 A mix of clouds and sun and a little less favorable southeast flow bringing more moisture to the region has held temperatures back a few degrees today. South/southeast winds are gusting over 20 mph again today. Upper level wave imagery depicts a shortwave across northern Wyoming currently and a meandering upper level low pressure centered over central/eastern Oklahoma. The low to the south is a key player for our area the next couple days as it effectively disrupts any coherent low level jet the next two nights. The result is the expected High Plains convection the next two nights will likely struggle to reach south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. The short range models are clearly leading to that conclusion as well. Similar to yesterday, we have pulled back rain chances/or kept them very low and generally confined to the west and north. The SPC Slight Risk for Friday is probably too far east though some marginally strong storms could "dye into" parts of south central Nebraska and produce an isolated wind gust. One can`t rule it out but precipitation the next couple days seems sparse at best. Temperatures will be very summer-like and return to the upper 80s and lower 90s, along with more humidity. However, winds will be down a bit from recent days so its going to feel plenty warm. Regarding the 2nd half of the weekend and next week, some trends seem to be emerging regarding timing of precipitation, at least in a couple cases. As mentioned earlier, the lack of a low level jet will inhibit overnight convection moving east in the short run, but the low level jet is more organized beginning Saturday night(and then again Sunday, etc.). A subtle upper wave rounding over the upper ridge could be enough to develop convection to the northwest, after which the that convection can be better sustained Saturday night. At this point, the higher precipitation chances seem appropriate though they may be too high in spots as the convection is not a large MCS looking event. That activity may lean into Father`s Day but the its not rain out at all. However, it will be humid Sunday with a mix of clouds and sun (but the morning likely cloudy). That warm and more humid feel continues into Monday and Tuesday. There are fairly extensive rain chances Sunday night and Monday night, though some fine details still need to play out. However, Tuesday night seems to be shaping up as the other night when thunderstorms are more likely. A solid upper shortwave will traverse the northern/central Plains and drawn a cold front by Tuesday evening. This system will be strong enough to spark more widespread thunderstorm activity late Tuesday afternoon/evening across much of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas. Instability will be high though shear may be marginal. Most of the area will have 40-50 percent rain chance Tuesday night at least. Once the trough and front pass, that sheds light on Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will be much drier in terms of lack of precipitation and some clearing out of higher dewpoints. We will have some small rain chances for Wednsday`s general uncertainty but overall those two days will be drying trend. Temperatures will cool Wednesday behind the front and then edge back up Thursday. There are still signs of a increasing ridging aloft late next week into the weekend of the 21st/22nd, possibly bringing the warmest temperatures of season so far to open up summer. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: General weakish flow across the Central Plains this forecast period but there is at least one potential impact. Low level moisture will increase from the south/southeast tonight and likely result in a period of MVFR ceilings, at least for a time, at both KGRI and KEAR either side of dawn Friday. Fog accompanied the clouds today to the south, so have included a tempo group for some fog in the KGRI area as well. Weak forcing and the lack of any real low-level jet tonight will keep precipitation at bay through the forecast. Gusty south winds near 25kts today will drop off this evening and remain sub-12kts later tonight and tomorrow. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz