951 FXUS63 KOAX 251705 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1205 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heavy rainfall is possible from thunderstorms along a slow- moving boundary today which may lead to localized flooding across southeast Nebraska. - The weekend brings drier weather. - A renewed stretch of dangerous heat is possible late this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 440 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 July`s been rainy and that`s reflected in the improving drought monitor and the widespread patchy fog that`s developed across the area this morning. Visibility has dipped below 1/4 mile at times and is expected to lift around 8am or 9am. Expect more fog to develop Friday night, too. Water vapor imagery reveals zonal flow over the northern half of the CONUS and a squat ridge over the Southeast. At the surface, we continue to deal with the repercussions of a stationary front`s lazy meandering across the area under a moisture-rich atmosphere. Already high (18Z OAX flight showed 1.8"), RAP forecast sounding show PWAT will be 2" by this afternoon with warm cloud depths pushing 4km. NAEFS shows PWAT values red- lining in the 99th percentile for late July climatology. That front is currently stretched from southwest to northeast Kansas and has lead to widespread flood watches, advisories, and warnings there. That front is progged to make some progress northward over the course of the day, but will cover less ground than earlier forecasts predicted. For that reason, PoPs have been cut down significantly. QPF has been slashed. I gave some consideration to canceling the FLASH FLOOD WATCH in effect in far southeast Nebraska, but considering the rainfall that fell there early Thursday morning, have opted to let another round of numerical guidance come in and force the the day forecaster to make the call. Regardless, flood concerns have slipped from Thursday`s POV. HREF currently offers a 40% chance of 1" of additional precip for the flood watch area. Precipitation is most likely late this afternoon / evening with the approach of a low-level shortwave from the Desert Southwest. PoPs peak at only 60% in far SE Nebraska and peak at only 25% in Omaha (drier north). This is also the only part of the forecast area with a threat of severe weather. Shear is anemic, but with CAPE values of nearly 1,000 J/kg, a supercell or two seems possible... but most of the action is likely to be found on the other side of of the Kansas state line this afternoon. .THE WEEKEND... A few lingering morning showers are possible and there`s like to be some patchy fog, too, but skies will be clearing from west to east on Saturday morning as temps and dewpoints climb. Max heat indices will approach 100F, but fall shy of heat advisory criteria. No such luck for Sunday. As the ridge over the South grows and envelopes the southern half of the CONUS over the next 100 hours, temps will continue to climb in the Corn Belt. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures in the mid-90s and Tds in the mid-70s will lead to dangerous heat. Heat indices of 110-ish will fall on the dividing line between heat advisory/warning criteria. They`ll be hot and impactful either way. Expect headlines. With neighboring NWS offices issuing heat headlines for Saturday, have opted to make things easier by holding off on a heat watch for Sunday just yet. .WEEKDAY... Monday may be the hottest of the forecast with high temps approaching the century mark and heat indices pushing 110 again. A second day of heat really exacerbates the heat danger as urban areas have a hard time cooling off overnight. The forecast`s uncertainty will grow from Tuesday forward as temperatures and precipitation are dependent on where a front settles across the Northern Plains. Currently expected to come to rest across Nebraska, it would bring regular opportunities for rain and thunder and much cooler conditions. Tuesday would still be warm as a bit of a transition day, but much cooler weather would be the result for Wednesday and Thursday should we find ourselves underneath the front`s precip or well north of the front. As it stands, days six and seven of the forecast show temps peaking in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Patchy MVFR conditions continue early this afternoon as low- level stratus lingers around, though VFR conditions should persist across all terminal for the bulk of the afternoon. Winds will remain calm and out of the southeast. Stray showers and thunderstorms will be possible at KOMA and KLNK through the evening, though confidence in this occurrence is low (20% chance). Meanwhile, a band of heavier storms will set up along the NE/KS border later this afternoon, though these storms should remain south of the terminals. Fog and low-level stratus will redevelop tonight (after 04-06Z), bringing MVFR to IFR conditions across all three terminals. Areas of dense fog will be possible, potentially bringing LIFR conditions. Conditions will gradually improve after sunrise with a return to VFR conditions expected by 14-18Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...Flood Watch through late tonight for NEZ090>093. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Wood