372
FXUS63 KOAX 100352
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1052 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot on Wednesday with highs in the low to mid 90s. NWS
  HeatRisk reaches the moderate category.

- Off-and-on storm chances Wednesday through the weekend. Best
  chances (40-60+%) Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night,
  and Thursday afternoon and Thursday night.

- Some severe weather is possible (5-14% chance) in northeast NE
  and west-central IA Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additional
  strong/severe storms appear possible Thursday and maybe
  Friday, but timing and location details remain uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

     Tonight and Tuesday...

Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper-level low
over the upper Great Lakes with prevailing north-northwest flow
present across the northern and central Plains. The low pressure
system will accelerate east this period with building mid-level
heights forecast across the Great Plains. In the low levels,
visible satellite imagery reveals the presence of Canadian
wildfire smoke across the area this afternoon, with much of
that being aloft as no visibility restrictions are currently
being observed. Latest HRRR data suggest that a potentially more
concentrated, near-surface plume could move into parts of
northeast NE and northwest IA this evening before drifting to
our northeast overnight.

A weak cold front is forecast to settle south through the
Dakotas and western MN on Tuesday, with light southwest winds
developing ahead of that feature across our area. Those winds
will draw an increasing warm and moist air mass into the region,
with Tuesday`s highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.


     Wednesday and Thursday...

A quasi-zonal, mid-level flow regime is forecast to develop
across the northern tier of states, with a lower-latitude trough
amplifying over the southern Plains. In the low levels, the cold
front mentioned above is forecast to stall over northeast NE
and west-central IA on Wednesday, with temperatures warming into
the low to mid 90s to the south of that boundary. Dewpoints
aren`t expected to be overly high, with resultant heat indices
similar to the air temperature. Nonetheless, it will likely be
the warmest day of the year at many locations, and a
significant change from the recent mild weather. Moreover, the
experimental NWS HeatRisk will reach the moderate category,
meaning the expected level of heat will affect sensitive
individuals, especially those without effective cooling and/or
adequate hydration.

In addition to the heat, the stalled front will be the focus for
shower and thunderstorm development late Wednesday afternoon
into evening. While vertical shear isn`t expected to be overly
strong, a ribbon of moderate instability is forecast along the
boundary, with isolated severe weather possible (5-14% chance).
Locally damaging wind gusts and/or marginally severe hail appear
to be the primary hazards. Showers and thunderstorms could
linger through much of Wednesday night with the highest PoPs of
50-70% forecast across northeast NE and west-central IA.

On Thursday, the models indicate a low-amplitude disturbance
moving through the northern Plains, with some signal for a piece
of the southern Plains trough to progress northeast toward the
mid/lower MO Valley. At the surface, it appears that the above-
mentioned front will remain in the northeast NE/west-central IA
vicinity. Highest confidence in additional shower and
thunderstorm chances Thursday into Thursday night (maximum PoPs
of 40-60%) will be focused along the expected location of the
front in the northern part of our area. Rain potential farther
south will be contingent on whether a piece of the southern
Plains trough does, in fact, move into the region.

The deterministic models and GEFS-based, machine-learning
guidance do suggest some severe-weather potential focused along
the boundary again on Thursday, so that`s something we will be
monitoring. Highs on Thursday are expected to be a bit cooler
than those on Wednesday, but still above-normal, with readings
largely in the mid 80s.


     Friday through the weekend...

A prominent mid/upper-level high is forecast to become
established over northwest Mexico and the southern Rockies, with
the northeast extension of that feature expanding through the
central into northern Plains this weekend. Meanwhile at the
surface, indications are that the above-mentioned front will
linger across our area at least through Friday, before
developing to our north by Sunday. As such, the best shower and
thunderstorm chances of 25-35% exist on Friday and Friday
night, with lower precipitation potential on Saturday and
Sunday. The deterministic models are more bullish on strong to
severe storm potential Friday afternoon and evening compared to
the machine-learning guidance, so we`ll be keeping tabs on that
as well.

High temperatures will remain above-normal with readings mainly
in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

The aviation forecast continues to favor VFR conditions to
persist, with little to no clouds aside from continued smoke
that should lessen going into the early morning hours. Winds are
at their lightest for the period as well, with speeds of less
than 5 kts that should turn largely southwesterly area-wide
after 06z. Winds will wobble between 220 and 250 before swinging
southerly by 00z tomorrow evening, topping out at 08-12 kts.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Petersen