310 FXUS63 KOAX 162315 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 615 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke will again increase overnight and then linger into early Friday. A smoke advisory issued by NDEE will be in effect during this time. - There is a 20-30% chance of storms late tonight into early Thursday morning. There is a 5-10% chance that a storm or tow could be severe near the NE/KS border. - There is an additional severe weather threat late Thursday afternoon into the evening (15-30% chance, mainly 5-10 PM). The primary threat will be large hail, but a few damaging wind gusts are also possible and a tornado cannot be ruled out. - Shower and storm chances return to the region Sunday into Monday, though confidence is low in exact timing/placement of the heaviest rain. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 It has been another windy, warm dry day. High temperatures through mid afternoon have ranged in the middle 70s, with still some upward potential yet this afternoon. This has created very high fire danger across the region, and satellite has detected a few hot spots. Focus shifts to the potential for showers and thunderstorms tonight as short wave moves through the Central Plains. CAMs suggest shower chances increase after 1 am, with the best potential for stronger storms now remaining across northeast KS. A storm or two could develop along the KS/NE border region, but the bulk of the heavier convection looks to remain just south of our forecast area. And it`s doubtful any of the showers would get any farther north than I80. Meanwhile, smoke is expected to increase again overnight from fires to the south. As we did yesterday, we coordinated with NE state agencies on the need for another smoke advisory, with AQI levels moderate to potentially unhealthful for sensitive groups, thus the smoke advisory will be in effect from 6 pm this evening through 7 am Friday. For Thursday, we pulled out the chance of morning rain. While there could be lower clouds that develop on the strong southerly flow, it doesn`t look like there would be any meaningful rain chances in the morning. We will wait for the cold front to move into northeast NE, with storms becoming likely along the front by 6-7 pm then spreading eastward from there. Ahead of the front it will be warm with highs in the lower to middle 80s, and still mid 70s behind the front in northeast NE. Various CAMs suggest convection along the front from Columbus, NE to Sioux City Iowa be early evening, and it`s this cluster of storms that will bring our severe weather threat. These storms will likely be supercells, and will have the capability of large hail up to a couple of in inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts. And perhaps a tornado or two could develop on the tail end charlie cells, maybe closer to the where a triple point could be setting up. The NAM nest would develop convection farther west across central NE, then move in later in the evening which seems to be a bit of an outlier. The prime severe storm threat time for our area remains 5-11 pm. Beyond that, the next best chance for precipitation comes Sunday when the next strong trough moves through the Southern Plains. This will keep mostly a shower chance for our Easter with coolish temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and the severe weather threat well east of our area. Further into the future, next week will have a chance of rain both Tuesday and Wednesday but confidence in the details are low as models are little out of sync on the timing for anything specific. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail tonight with increasing chances for MVFR ceilings (FL025) at KOMA for a few hour period on Thursday morning. Some potential exists for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday morning across portions of southeast NE; likely to the south of KLNK and KOMA. A front is forecast to move into northeast NE Thursday afternoon, with increasing storm chances along and ahead of that boundary during the afternoon and evening hours. Confidence in occurrence of thunderstorms at the terminal locations is currently too low to include in the forecast. Finally, gusty south winds are expected to diminish to some extent this evening with LLWS developing in the 04-05z timeframe and continuing through daybreak Thursday. With the movement of the front into the area Thursday afternoon, winds at KOFK will switch from south or southwest to northwest. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...DeWald AVIATION...Mead