453 FXUS63 KOAX 110717 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 217 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and breezy conditions will lead to fire weather concerns Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. - Low (15-25%) rain chances Saturday night and Sunday night, with slightly better chances (25-35%) Wednesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025 Today... Winds diminished notably overnight as an upper ridge moved over the intermountain west and a surface high settled over the Missouri River Valley. Radiational cooling under clear skies allowed temperatures to dip into the mid 30s to low 40s by 2 AM. A trough just to our east will draw northerly flow over the forecast area today. Highs will be a few degrees cooler than Thursday, in the mid 60s, with much lighter winds, and mostly sunny skies. Saturday and Sunday... The ridge to our west will tilt into the upper midwest this weekend, drawing warmer temperatures and a resurgence of stronger winds into the forecast area. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will generally top out in the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations pushing into the low 80s. Winds will increase out of the south/southwest Saturday to 15-20 mph, with gusts up to 30-40 mph. A cold front drifts through the region Sunday morning, bringing winds around to the north. It will be another breezy day, with gusts around 20-30 mph forecast. The combination of warm temperatures and gusty winds will lead to Very High fire danger both Saturday and Sunday. With minimum relative humidities ranging from 25-35%, we could easily see some pockets of Extreme Fire Danger with minor changes to forecasted winds, temperatures, and RH. Despite the overall dry conditions, we will have a couple low chances for rain this weekend. The first arrives with the previously mentioned cold front early Sunday morning. Although the better moisture looks to remain well to the north of the forecast area, we could see a few spotty showers creeping into northeast Nebraska. For now will maintain 15-25% PoPs near the SD border. The second chance for rain arrives with an upper level disturbance Sunday night into early Monday morning, and is limited to the southern half of the forecast area. Right now, no hazardous/severe weather is expected with either of these waves. In fact, appreciable moisture will be very little overall, probably around 0.05" or less. Monday and Beyond... Northwesterly flow returns Monday through most of next week, bringing slightly cooler temperatures back into the region. Highs will drop back into the 60s through the first half of the week, inching back into the 70s for Wednesday and beyond. Fire weather concerns continue into Monday with relative humidities as low as the teens and 20s, and winds potentially gusting up to 30 to 35 mph. Otherwise, within this flow regime, a few shortwaves will likely trickle through the forecast area, bringing a handful of spotty shower chances. However this far out, it is tricky to pin down exactly when they might occur. As of now the best chance looks to be next Wednesday, as an upper low dives southeast through Minnesota and into the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds out of the north or northwest overnight into Friday. We`ll see winds start shifting at KOFK as the front moves through around midday with winds becoming southerly by 19Z. Front causes winds to shift at KOMA and KLNK to southeasterly around 22-23Z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KG AVIATION...McCoy