407 FXUS63 KLBF 020911 AFDLBF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service North Platte NE 411 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A slight (level 2 of 5) risk of severe thunderstorms returns this afternoon and evening with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. - Heavy rainfall this afternoon into Tuesday may lead to some localized flash flooding concerns. - Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the end of the next week although the severe potential is uncertain at this time. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Dry conditions continue through this morning as the upper ridge moves off to the east and more active weather returns to the region. Despite moving off to the east today, this ridge will bring one more day of warmer temperatures to portions of north central Nebraska. Warm air advection ahead of a cold front will usher in 850 mb temperatures in the 20 to 28 C range. This warmer airmass will allow surface temperatures to easily rise into the upper 80s to low 90s today. With normal highs in the low 80s, these temperatures will be nearly 10 degrees above normal, potentially up to 15 degrees above normal for points in extreme southwest Nebraska where temperatures could hit the mid 90s. Further to the northwest, the cold front passage as well as increasing clouds will prevent highs from rising much above the mid 70s which will actually be a few degrees below normals. A cold front being dragged across the region will result in thunderstorm development across the region this afternoon and evening. Ample instability (CAPE values over 3000 J/kg and lapse rates near 7 C/km) and plenty of low level moisture will create a favorable environment for severe storms. Storms will initiate across the Sandhills generally along a line from Ogallala to O`Neill by mid to late afternoon. Initially, storms will be discrete before forming a line of storms by early evening. While storms remain discrete, hail at least 1 inch in diameter, potentially larger, will be the primary threat. As storms evolve into a line, damaging winds up to 65 mph will become the main threat. While the environment isn`t the best for tornado development, there will be a narrow ribbon of higher helicity (over 200) with low LCL heights. Therefore, a tornado or two cannot be completely ruled out especially near the beginning of the event when supercells remain discrete enough to take advantage of the environment. The severe threat will continue through sunset (mid to late evening) before storms start to weaken, become widespread, and overall messy. However, this will only herald in a new threat with this system: heavy rainfall. The potential for heavy rainfall will last through tonight and into Tuesday where rainfall totals of up to 2.5 inches or higher are possible across portions of north central and into central Nebraska through Tuesday. Latest probabilities show a narrow area that has at least a 60 percent chance of seeing over 2.5 inches which increases confidence that there will likely be a few locations seeing over this amount. Localized flash flooding may be possible especially in low lying areas, roadways, and small streams. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 410 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 Near daily isolated rain and thunderstorm chances will continue to impact the region into next weekend. At this time, confidence in locations of impact and timing is low. The severe potential is also low at this time, but a stronger storm or two cannot be ruled out completely with small hail and strong wind gusts being the main threats. For temperatures, the passage of the cold front on Monday night will bring a return to cooler temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs drop into the low to mid 60s both days before gradually increasing a few degrees each day through the end of next week returning back into the upper 70s to low 80s by next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 VFR conditions continue to prevail overnight and through the afternoon hours. The main aviation concern tonight will be LLWS from southwest Nebraska into portions of north central Nebraska. Used the slightly longer duration given from HRRR guidance to time the low level jet, which brings impacts to both terminals tonight. By morning, surface winds begin to increase becoming quite gusty by the afternoon and into the evening. A cold front tracks across the Sandhills during the afternoon, generating a line of showers and thunderstorms across the region. Guidance continues to trend timing of thunderstorms late afternoon into the early evening, with rains lasting into the night. As thunderstorms and heavy rain tracks across the region, impacts are expected to both ceilings and visibility. This will also introduce gusty and erratic winds at the terminals. && .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kulik LONG TERM...Kulik AVIATION...Richie