500
FXUS63 KOAX 111125
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
525 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances (15-25%) return Saturday afternoon into
  Sunday morning. Precip could fall as light rain, freezing
  rain, and/or snow. The best chances of light freezing rain
  will be in southeast NE & southwest IA.

- Monday and Tuesday morning`s wind chills are expected to fall
  below zero.

- Monday and Tuesday are forecast to be the coldest days of the
  period with highs in the teens to 20s. Temperatures will
  gradually rise through the work week, with Thursday and Friday
  highs potentially reaching the low 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 325 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

A deep and positively-tilted mid-level trof stretches from the
Great Lakes to the Gulf of California as evident on this
morning`s water vapor imagery. A second trof is pushing through
the Pac NW.

Skies temporarily cleared overnight behind the departing wave,
but already another deck of mid- and high-level clouds is
building in from the northwest in response to the clipper-like
system streaking across the Dakotas today. Moisture here is
scant, especially in the sub- cloud layer. In fact, precip is
more likely on either side of this area in both the Dakotas and
Kansas and is likely to miss this part of the US. The dry air
should prevent most measurable precipitation accumulations.
Any accumulations today will be near a trace. Still, have
maintained plenty of flurry/sprinkle mentions in much of the
grids with widespread synoptic lift. Forecast soundings do show
a threat of freezing rain, especially south of I-80 later this
evening. With reduced QPF, impacts are unlikely. Yesterday`s
HREF run produced a 60% chance of 0.01" of accumulating freezing
rain in far southeast Nebraska, but the 00Z run now produces
only a 10% chance.

Temps today will be some of the warmest of January so far with
areas west of the Missouri River managing lower 40s except where
there`s a decent snowpack. The southerly winds that help warm
things up will turn northwesterly this afternoon.

Light snow will be falling across South Dakota on Saturday night
and some may fall in the Antelope / Knox / Cedar County areas in
northeast Nebraska. The HREF has a 70% chance of 0.1" snow bullseye
there, but CAMs aren`t too excited about it so I`ve left QPF
there at zero. But it`s certainly within the realm of
possibility.

.SUNDAY...

A secondary push of a cold air in the form of a backdoor cold
front settles into the area on Sunday. Temps will range from
near freezing along the Kansas state line to lower 20s for
locations within two counties of South Dakota.

As skies clear over the course of the day, the stage will be set
for a cold night of unfettered radiative cooling leading to low
temperatures in the single digits above zero. Winds of 5-10 mph
shouldn`t produce much for wind chills, but cooler temps are
forecast for the next two mornings.

.NEXT WEEK...

Monday and Tuesday will be the chilliest of the week with high
temps only in the teens and twenties. Early morning lows in the
single digits will feel as cold as fifteen degrees below zero
when wind is factored in. It`s not quite COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
criteria, but not that far off.

Monday and Tuesday and the remainder of the week will be mostly
dry. Some guidance tries to produce some snow along the stalled
front on Monday or Tuesday but I`ve kept dry for now. If we are
able to squeeze out a little snow, it won`t be long for this
world as temps are expected to moderate as the mid-level
trofing departs east and will be replaced by temporary zonal
flow for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM CST Sat Jan 11 2025

VFR conditions early in the mid with broken to overcast
conditions 8000-10000 feet. MVFR clouds develop by 02z at KOFK,
and 06z at KOMA/KLNK. There is a 20% chance of sprinkles at KOFK
this the afternoon, but not a high enough probability to
include in the TAF at this time. As a frontal boundary moves
into the area, there`s also a small chance of a sprinkle at
KOMA/KLNK in the 19-00z period, but again, probability is too
low to include in the TAF this far out. Beyond then, there
remains a 20% chance of a wintry mix of a sprinkle or flurry.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald