416 FXUS63 KOAX 260837 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 337 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A renewed stretch of dangerous heat is forecast for Sunday and Monday, potentially stretching into Tuesday. Afternoon heat index values may reach 105 to 115 degrees. - Drier conditions are expected through at least Monday, with rainfall potential returning late Tuesday into Wednesday. - Cooler conditions return for next week`s second half. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025 The forecast quiets down as the weekend arrives. Early this morning, showers and strong thunderstorms are primarily just southeast of this forecast area. Some storms there are expected to bump up against severe criteria. A few returns did light up KOAX overnight around Wahoo/Omaha area on the nose of a H9 nocturnal jet, but they fall apart nearly as soon as they develop. As the shortwave responsible for the instability continues east, attendant showers will tag along. The remainder of the day will be dry. Some patchy fog has developed across the area this morning, but so far has yet to become as dense as was the case on Friday morning with some cirrus overhead preventing complete radiational cooling. Today`s sunshine will also be constrained with a little bit of elevated wildfire smoke drifting over the area. (It isn`t Canadian, this smoke is from northern Arizona.) Beyond the milky smoke, skies today will be clearing from west to east as the aforementioned shortwave drifts away. On total, we`ll see more sun than the past few days and the extra insolation and light southerly winds should be enough to help temperatures push 2-10 degrees warmer than 24 hours prior and dry some of these puddles. .SUNDAY and MONDAY... The mid-lattitude jet will bulge north as the ridge over the Southeast back-builds into the central CONUS. Heights rise and temps spike on Sunday afternoon under a dog-day heat dome. Highs should manage 90s as dewpoints continue to climb in the continued southerly flow. NAEFS shows low-level water content to be climatologically anomalous as corn sweat season is in full swing. Warm temps and high dewpoints will conspire to push maximum heat indices over 105 for all locations. Monday will be just as hot or hotter. Have chosen to issue EXTREME HEAT WATCHES for the entire forecast area for both afternoons/evenings. (1p to 7p). Some of the watch will likely be converted to a heat advisory and the hottest areas/urban areas... and much of the area on Monday afternoon... pushing close to or above the 110F EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA. .TUESDAY and BEYOND... Some areas will remain hot on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the north/northeast. Temperatures will be highly dependent on its timing. As it stands, precip will wait until late on Tuesday with 40-70% PoPs after midnight. Cooler conditions fill out the remainder of the forecast, though uncertainly spikes from Tuesday forward. Current guidance leaves the front draped across the area, leaving regular opportunities for showers/thunder/severe weather and much cooler conditions. FWIW, machine learning does highlight a (15%) severe threat as early as Tuesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1159 PM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025 Ceilings are beginning to deteriorate earlier than guidance suggested with the 00z issuance, primarily at KOMA and KLNK were drops to MVFR are observed. Have adjusted times accordingly for 06z issuance. Still expecting gradual expansion northward of IFR ceilings and visibilities after 8z, with potential for LIFR at KOMA and KLNK through at least 13z. Ceilings and visibilities will improve by mid to late morning. May see a pop up shower or storm at KLNK or KOMA, but model guidance has trended this activity southward so have kept mentions out given probability of occurrence is at 30% or less. Winds remain under 12kts for this TAF cycle but will gradually switch from southeast to southwest. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...Castillo