024
FXUS63 KOAX 221050
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
550 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few lingering showers across northeast Nebraska this morning.

- Periodic chances of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday through
  next weekend. A marginal risk of severe storms (5-14%) exists
  for Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday. The best chance of
  severe weather returns next weekend.

- High temperatures remain in the 70s and lows from the middle
  50s to lower 60s through Friday. Highs warm into the 80s to
  low 90s next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1017 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Clouds continue to hang around this evening across eastern
Nebraska and southwest Iowa. We`ve watched the first round of
showers move into northeast Nebraska and fall apart, and the
second round shifted south and is falling apart as it moves
across central Nebraska. Other than a few light showers still
lingering in the area north, the rest of our area is quiet this
evening. Looking at water vapor satellite imagery for the
broader view, we see quasi-zonal flow with a couple of weak
disturbances leading to convective development over eastern
Colorado and western Kansas this evening.

Monday we start to see heights build out to our west with a
trough digging south over the Ohio River Valley. We`ll see the
subtropical Jet shift northeast across our area, leading to
enhanced northwesterly flow. Clouds breaking up through the day
will help us warm up into the mid 70s by the afternoon with
southerly/southeasterly low-level winds advecting moisture into
the area keeping dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s through
the afternoon.

Tuesday we see increased southerly flow ahead of a cold front
stretching south from a low pressure system moving across
Manitoba. Guidance varies on how much we destabilize Tuesday due
to significant cloud cover across the area. This may limit
severe potential but 50-55kt bulk shear over the region could
lead to severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy
rain if we can generate some CAPE.

More weak disturbances in the northwesterly flow will bring
periodic chances for showers through the end of the week. These
will also keep temperatures cooler with highs staying in the
mid 70s. Going into the weekend we see a strong trough move
into the PacNW help to push the ridge over the Rockies eastward.
This will cause warming temperatures and increased moisture
advection into our area through the weekend. Guidance also
shows potential for some stronger storms early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 550 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Expect some brief MVFR ceilings at OFK this morning, though they
should rise to VFR levels by mid-day. VFR conditions are
expected elsewhere throughout the period, with some SCT clouds
around 4000-6000 ft agl through the afternoon. Winds will be
northeasterly to easterly to start, but gradually turn
clockwise, settling in at southeasterly. Speeds will generally
remain below 10 kts. Showers and a few storms may be approaching
OFK very late in the period, but guidance currently holds off
until after 12Z.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...CA