141 FXUS63 KGLD 250451 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1051 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Lingering showers/storms in Colorado have made little eastern progress this evening and may dissipate prior to reaching the CO-KS border. Radar and observational trends this evening suggest that more vigorous thunderstorm development over portions of southwest and central Kansas overnight (early Friday morning) will likely be confined south and east of the NWS Goodland county warning area. Severe/hazardous weather is presently not anticipated. - Much above normal temperatures return for the weekend and into early next week with heat indices of 100-105; warmest across Graham, Norton, Decatur, Sheridan and Gove. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 Stratus is finally dissipating across the area. High temperatures in the mid 80s continues to seem reasonable so no appreciable changes regarding that will be made. As we continue through the afternoon anticipating some diurnal topographically storms will develop along the Palmer Divide with a better potential for storms off of the Front Range as a 500mb wave moves off. The current thinking is that these storms will make it to around the Highway 59 corridor across Yuma down through Cheyenne counties before dissipating around 9pm MT. The overall threat for severe weather is very low with this activity but can`t rule out an isolated heat burst as this activity diminishes in coverage and intensity. A slightly better potential for rainfall looks to exist across the southeast portion of the forecast area just north of a stationary boundary driven by a surface low across the Oklahoma panhandle. Persistent moderate to heavy rain is possible with this with training storms being the main concern due to very slow Corfidi upshear and downshear around 5 knots. Spotter and Cocorahs reports prove that 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area overnight leading to newly saturated soils both shown by CREST and SAC-SMA soil moisture of 25-45%, Have been noticing that the area of heaviest rainfall continues to shift to the south. With this trend will forego any Flood Watches as my confidence in any flooding including nuisance flooding is less than 30%. A caveat may be if outflow from the storms can be ejected northward which may shift everything to the north which 2 out of 25 ECMWF ensemble members does suggest. Tonight and into Friday morning another signal for low stratus is seen across eastern portions of the area, if the rainfall can move out of the area quicker then fog may be more of a concern. At this time will be introducing at least patchy fog mention into the forecast across the east as RAP forecast soundings show a very saturated low level profile along with light winds, if the trend for the rainfall continues to sag further south then fog wording may need to increase some with the potential for dense fog as we maintain the ESE flow. Large scale troughing across the western CONUS will be in place as high pressure across the eastern CONUS continues to keep moisture in place across the region. A departing 250mb jet may continue to keep isolated storms ongoing across Graham and Norton counties through the day Friday. High temperatures continue to remain in the low 80s across the east where cloud may linger versus the upper 80s across eastern Colorado as some downsloping features ensues. Another signal for fog Friday night into Saturday morning is seen as well but will forego introducing it into the forecast at this time as fog at this range can be fickle in exact location. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 The main concern for the extended period will be a strong signal for warm to hot temperatures developing this weekend and into the new work week. Large scale troughing will continue on Saturday, a surface trough moving into the area will turn winds to the southwest advecting in warmer temperatures into the area as high temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s across the area. Sunday, the high pressure across the southeast expands westward and entrenches itself across the area. Very high confidence in high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s across most of the area along with heat indices potentially approaching 105 degrees across Graham, Norton, Sheridan, Decatur and Gove counties where the potential does exist for heat related products in future forecasts. Am noticing some drying across the intermountain west which suggests to me that a reprieve from the humidity especially for western portions of the area may be on the horizon (at least for a few days). Some low end fire weather days may be possible Sunday and Monday but with fuels still remaining green and no clear cut signal for wind will preclude further concerns at this time due to the lack of 850 and 700 mb jets in the area although some spotty gusts around 20 mph due to diurnal mixing can`t be ruled out. The high pressure and the heat is forecast to continue through Tuesday before a strong low pressure system across Manitoba and Ontario develops leading into a northwesterly flow pattern for the area which appears to be the next best potential for rainfall for the area along with a return to near normal temperatures for the area. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025 GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Lingering showers/storms in eastern CO.. along a line extending northward (roughly) from Limon (KLIC) to Akron (KAKO) at 04Z this evening.. are making little in the way of eastward progress and are likely to dissipate prior to reaching the CO-KS border, though.. modest outflow emanating from said convection may result in a short period of relatively breezy (10-20 knot) NW winds late this evening (~05-06Z). Otherwise, light and variable winds will prevail overnight. Winds will remain light (~6-12 knots) through the duration of the TAF period.. becoming decidedly SE or SSE by early afternoon (~18Z Friday). MCK: Lingering showers/storms in western Nebraska.. in vicinity of Grant (KGGF) and Ogallala (KOGA) at 04Z this evening.. are making little in the way of eastward progress and are likely to dissipate prior to reaching the McCook terminal, though.. modest outflow emanating from said convection could result in a short period of relatively breezy (15-25 knot) NW winds overnight (~06-08Z). A period of MVFR stratus and/or fog is possible a few hours on either side of sunrise Friday morning (~10-14Z Friday), though.. in a weak low-level flow regime.. and potential presence of mid-upper level ceilings associated with remnant/decaying convection.. confidence is low with regard to whether or not any stratus/fog will develop. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light winds will predominate through the TAF period.. with 5-10 knot NE to E winds (overnight) veering to the E and SE (Friday afternoon). && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Vincent