044 FXUS63 KGLD 052050 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 250 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - On and off thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend into next week; severe weather is possible as well. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 The Tri-State area remains situated in a weak forcing regime, on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over northern Mexico and the Southern Plains), in W to WSW flow aloft. Weak low-level and mid-level flow, <= 15 knots from the surface to 15 KFT AGL (up to ~500 mb) persist, with stronger flow confined to the 200-300 mb level (25-35 KFT AGL). While weak forcing continues to frustrate convection allowing guidance, there appears to be a general trend/consensus that scattered convection developing along the Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide will progress east toward the CO-KS border (via modest westerly steering flow) late this afternoon and evening (~5-10 pm MDT). Isolated convective development could occur near Highway 50 in Hamilton/Kearny counties (perhaps southern Greeley/Wichita counties) ~20-22 UTC this afternoon.. where observational data indicates that moisture pooling is occurring in vicinity of a weak convergence zone.. and diurnal Cu was already present nearby to the west, over Kiowa/Prowers counties. A severe storm is possible ~20-22 UTC if development does occur over southern portions of Greeley/Wichita counties, though.. with right-mover motion from the N at ~25 knots.. left- mover motion from the W at ~10 knots and the mean wind from the NW at 15-20 knots.. it would be short-lived in nature (for the Goodland county warning area). In contrast to yesterday, unimpeded insolation and the presence of an elevated mixed layer (700-500 mb lapse rates ~7.0 to 8.5 C/km) will yield seasonably strong DCAPE (1500-1800 J/kg), suggesting an inherently greater potential for severe downbursts associated with any convection. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 Sun-Mon: Guidance indicates relatively little change in the `big picture`, i.e. the Tri-State area will remain in a weak forcing regime on the northern periphery of an upper level ridge (anchored over the Southern Plains and northern Mexico) in WSW flow aloft. Convective development, coverage and evolution in the Goodland county warning area may be influenced (directly or indirectly) by upstream and/or antecedent convection on each day. Bottom line, low confidence in forecast specifics (convective mode, coverage, evolution). Guidance does indicate that an upper level low digging southward along the Pacific Coast will tighten the height gradient (and magnitude of WSW flow aloft) over the Desert Southwest, 4-Corners and portions of the central Rockies.. suggesting that stronger deep layer shear (and greater overall severe weather potential) will exist on both Sun-Mon. Tue-Sat: Long range guidance indicates that ridging aloft will prevail over the southern CONUS, and that the Tri-State area will remain situated on the northern periphery of the ridge, at or near the southern fringe of the mid-latitude westerlies. Broadly speaking, expect near to above average temperatures and a daily potential for late aft-eve convection (mainly in climatologically favored locations downstream of the Colorado Front Range).. depending on the orientation of the ridge and proximity of the mid-latitude westerlies. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Jul 5 2025 GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with light northerly winds becoming variable this evening and remaining light/variable through the duration of the TAF period. Thunderstorms developing along the Colorado Front Range and Palmer Divide this afternoon will track east toward the CO-KS border late this aft-eve, potentially impacting the Goodland terminal in the ~02-06Z time frame. Gusty/erratic winds can be expected in vicinity of any storms (or decaying convection late this evening/overnight). MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period with light northerly winds becoming variable this evening and remaining light/variable through the duration of the TAF period. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...Vincent