706 FXUS63 KGLD 140409 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1009 PM MDT Sun Apr 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Near critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon for locations generally along and east of a line from Trenton to Hoxie and Hill City. - A few rain showers are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly in northeast Colorado. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Today: As of 18 UTC, a relatively moist and evaporatively cooled airmass.. emanating from upstream precipitation in Montana and western portions of the Dakotas (yesterday evening and early this morning).. has advected southward through the entire Tri-State area. With 850 mb temperatures/dewpoints ~10C lower/higher than yesterday (per SPC mesoanalysis data/trends and current operational guidance).. expect highs ranging from the upper 60s in northeast CO to the mid-upper 70s in Wichita- Gove-Graham counties. An increasingly upslope (NNE to ENE) component to low-level flow could potentially aid in the development of low-topped diurnal convection along portions of the Palmer Divide late this afternoon and early this evening, though.. the majority of high- res guidance suggests that convective development is more likely to occur in vicinity of the I-76 corridor. With forcing confined to modest upslope flow / low-level convergence and a thermodynamic environment characterized by ~100 J/kg MUCAPE, one might say that.. when it comes to convective development in the Goodland CWA.. expectations are pretty low. If scattered convection develops in vicinity of the I-76 corridor late this afternoon, modest convective outflow/pressure rises could locally augment/enhance the MSLP-850 mb height gradient in eastern CO.. which, in turn.. could create a short period of locally stronger NE to ENE low- level flow on the Palmer Divide, which.. in turn.. could increase the potential for upslope convective development over western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties (CO), mainly between 22-02Z. If development occurs on the Palmer Divide, a thunderstorm is possible.. but showers are probable. Tonight: A southwest-northeast oriented shear axis will ever- so-slowly approach the region from the west tonight/early Monday morning -- when modest low-level forcing (upslope flow, low-level speed convergence/frontogenesis) will have already been supplanted by subsident low-level cold advection -- and high-res guidance remains less-than-enthusiastic with regard to the development of precipitation after 06Z (midnight MDT). Mon-Mon night: A cooler airmass, deposited by cold advection late tonight/Mon morning, will foster cooler temperatures on Mon. 12Z 04/13 operational runs of the ECMWF/GFS suggest 850 mb temperatures ranging from 3 to 7C (ECMWF) or 5 to 10C (GFS) at 18Z (noon) Monday, coolest in far northeast portions of the area where breezy (15-25 mph) NW-NNW winds will persist well into the afternoon.. RH readings will bottom out around 20%.. and near-critical fire weather conditions are expected during the afternoon.. mainly in Red Willow, Decatur, Norton and Graham counties. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Apr 13 2025 Tue-Wed: Long range guidance continues to indicate that a complex split-flow synoptic regime will evolve over western North America by mid-week, a pattern roughly characterized by (1) ridging along/offshore the Pacific Coast, (2) a cut-off low trapped beneath the ridge offshore the southern Pacific Coast and (3) confluent flow aloft over the central Rockies and High Plains. If confluent flow aloft is anchored over, or near, the Tri-State area.. one would generally expect dry conditions and above average temperatures. The 12Z 04/13 operational GFS suggests a synoptic pattern evolution in which southern stream shortwave energy rounding the base of the cut-off low offshore the southern Pacific Coast could eject ENE-NE across the southern Rockies and portions of the Southern/Central Plains Tue night, bringing light precipitation to the region, though.. the 12Z operational ECMWF is not so accommodating. Thu-Sun: GFS/ECMWF long range guidance suggest that the synoptic pattern over the western CONUS will transition to broad troughing /cyclonic flow aloft/ late this week into next weekend.. a pattern that would tend to support above average precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1006 PM MDT Sun Apr 13 2025 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Scattered virga/sprinkles/flurries with bases near 10kft will continue through the overnight, but not expected to impact either terminal. Breezy to windy northerly surface winds will continue through Monday afternoon, with occasional gusts to 20-30kts. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Vincent LONG TERM...Vincent AVIATION...024