141
FXUS63 KGLD 250451
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1051 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering showers/storms in Colorado have made little eastern
  progress this evening and may dissipate prior to reaching the
  CO-KS border. Radar and observational trends this evening
  suggest that more vigorous thunderstorm development over
  portions of southwest and central Kansas overnight (early
  Friday morning) will likely be confined south and east of the
  NWS Goodland county warning area. Severe/hazardous weather is
  presently not anticipated.

- Much above normal temperatures return for the weekend and into
  early next week with heat indices of 100-105; warmest across
  Graham, Norton, Decatur, Sheridan and Gove.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Stratus is finally dissipating across the area. High
temperatures in the mid 80s continues to seem reasonable so no
appreciable changes regarding that will be made. As we continue
through the afternoon anticipating some diurnal topographically
storms will develop along the Palmer Divide with a better
potential for storms off of the Front Range as a 500mb wave
moves off. The current thinking is that these storms will make
it to around the Highway 59 corridor across Yuma down through
Cheyenne counties before dissipating around 9pm MT. The overall
threat for severe weather is very low with this activity but
can`t rule out an isolated heat burst as this activity
diminishes in coverage and intensity. A slightly better
potential for rainfall looks to exist across the southeast
portion of the forecast area just north of a stationary boundary
driven by a surface low across the Oklahoma panhandle.
Persistent moderate to heavy rain is possible with this with
training storms being the main concern due to very slow Corfidi
upshear and downshear around 5 knots. Spotter and Cocorahs
reports prove that 1-2 inches of rain fell across the area
overnight leading to newly saturated soils both shown by CREST
and SAC-SMA soil moisture of 25-45%, Have been noticing that the
area of heaviest rainfall continues to shift to the south. With
this trend will forego any Flood Watches as my confidence in
any flooding including nuisance flooding is less than 30%. A
caveat may be if outflow from the storms can be ejected
northward which may shift everything to the north which 2 out of
25 ECMWF ensemble members does suggest.

Tonight and into Friday morning another signal for low stratus
is seen across eastern portions of the area, if the rainfall can
move out of the area quicker then fog may be more of a concern.
At this time will be introducing at least patchy fog mention
into the forecast across the east as RAP forecast soundings show
a very saturated low level profile along with light winds, if
the trend for the rainfall continues to sag further south then
fog wording may need to increase some with the potential for
dense fog as we maintain the ESE flow.

Large scale troughing across the western CONUS will be in place
as high pressure across the eastern CONUS continues to keep
moisture in place across the region. A departing 250mb jet may
continue to keep isolated storms ongoing across Graham and
Norton counties through the day Friday. High temperatures
continue to remain in the low 80s across the east where cloud
may linger versus the upper 80s across eastern Colorado as some
downsloping features ensues. Another signal for fog Friday night
into Saturday morning is seen as well but will forego
introducing it into the forecast at this time as fog at this
range can be fickle in exact location.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

The main concern for the extended period will be a strong
signal for warm to hot temperatures developing this weekend and
into the new work week. Large scale troughing will continue on
Saturday, a surface trough moving into the area will turn winds
to the southwest advecting in warmer temperatures into the area
as high temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid 90s
across the area.

Sunday, the high pressure across the southeast expands westward
and entrenches itself across the area. Very high confidence in
high temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s across most of
the area along with heat indices potentially approaching 105
degrees across Graham, Norton, Sheridan, Decatur and Gove
counties where the potential does exist for heat related
products in future forecasts. Am noticing some drying across the
intermountain west which suggests to me that a reprieve from
the humidity especially for western portions of the area may be
on the horizon (at least for a few days). Some low end fire
weather days may be possible Sunday and Monday but with fuels
still remaining green and no clear cut signal for wind will
preclude further concerns at this time due to the lack of 850
and 700 mb jets in the area although some spotty gusts around 20
mph due to diurnal mixing can`t be ruled out.

The high pressure and the heat is forecast to continue through
Tuesday before a strong low pressure system across Manitoba and
Ontario develops leading into a northwesterly flow pattern for
the area which appears to be the next best potential for
rainfall for the area along with a return to near normal
temperatures for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1045 PM MDT Thu Jul 24 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Lingering showers/storms in eastern CO.. along a line extending
northward (roughly) from Limon (KLIC) to Akron (KAKO) at 04Z
this evening.. are making little in the way of eastward progress
and are likely to dissipate prior to reaching the CO-KS border,
though.. modest outflow emanating from said convection may
result in a short period of relatively breezy (10-20 knot) NW
winds late this evening (~05-06Z). Otherwise, light and variable
winds will prevail overnight. Winds will remain light (~6-12
knots) through the duration of the TAF period.. becoming
decidedly SE or SSE by early afternoon (~18Z Friday).

MCK: Lingering showers/storms in western Nebraska.. in vicinity
of Grant (KGGF) and Ogallala (KOGA) at 04Z this evening.. are
making little in the way of eastward progress and are likely to
dissipate prior to reaching the McCook terminal, though.. modest
outflow emanating from said convection could result in a short
period of relatively breezy (15-25 knot) NW winds overnight
(~06-08Z). A period of MVFR stratus and/or fog is possible a few
hours on either side of sunrise Friday morning (~10-14Z
Friday), though.. in a weak low-level flow regime.. and
potential presence of mid-upper level ceilings associated with
remnant/decaying convection.. confidence is low with regard to
whether or not any stratus/fog will develop. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds will predominate through the TAF
period.. with 5-10 knot NE to E winds (overnight) veering to the
E and SE (Friday afternoon).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent