564
FXUS63 KGID 052148
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
448 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The vast majority of our forecast area (CWA) gets a chance to
  dry out/allow localized elevated water levels to continue
  receding over these next 24-30 hours, before our next chances
  for POSSIBLY more widespread convection arrives during mainly
  the Sunday evening through Monday night-Tues AM time frames
  (separate rounds possible).

- Most of our CWA is under at least a Marginal Risk for severe
  storms...with parts of mainly our western half under a Slight
  Risk (level 2 of 5)...on both the Day 2-3 SPC severe
  outlooks...as mainly each evening-overnight COULD feature
  convective complexes with mainly a damaging wind/heavy
  rain/possibly large hail threat.

- Additional periodic thunderstorm chances exist during parts of
  mainly the Tues-Fri time frame, but as is typical of these
  "summery" weather patterns driven by weaker disturbances/more
  subtle forcing, plenty of uncertainty lingers in the details
  for the first 48 hours of the forecast...let alone beyond.

- Temperature-wise: Very "normal" overall by early-July
  standards, with highs most days mid 80s-low 90s, and lows most
  nights somewhere in the 60s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 447 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, CHANGES, UNCERTAINTIES:

- First of all, no major/significant changes from
  previous/overnight forecast issuance, as we remain in a
  relatively active summer pattern featuring seasonably-warm
  (but not overly-hot) temperatures and multiple chances for
  showers/thunderstorms. However, these chances (and any
  associated severe weather threats) truly need to be taken "one
  day at a time" as forcing is mainly subtle/mesoscale-driven
  and sometimes what happens (or doesn`t happen) the previous
  night/morning can have a big influence on what happens (or
  doesn`t happen) the next day.

- Although most folks across our CWA will surely welcome more
  rain chances, parts of especially our northern, far western
  and even far southeastern CWA have seen some pretty hefty
  totals over the last 1-10 days...making these areas
  increasingly-prone to at least minor flooding issues compared
  to...well...most recent summers! Long story short...we`ll have
  to keep a close eye on possible hydro issues as well over the
  coming days. The VERY GENERAL 7-day cumulative rainfall
  forecast from WPC calls for a widespread 1-3" across most of
  our CWA (with localized higher amounts quite possible).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:

- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
Overall no big surprises to speak of today. In the wake of one
final round of overnight/early AM convection that departed east
out of our CWA by around 6 AM (but not before dumping a few
localized "bullseyes" of at least 2-3" of rain in parts of our
far east counties such as Thayer), the vast majority of our CWA
has enjoyed a dry, mostly sunny and overall-seasonable day, with
fairly light northerly-to-westerly breezes mainly around 10 MPH
(occasional higher gusts) and high temps on track to top out
mainly mid-upper 80s Nebraska/low-mid 90s KS.

The only exception (so far) to the dry day has been in our far
northeast zones (namely Polk County), where some residual lift
on the backside of a slowly-departing shortwave trough (its axis
currently centered over the NE/IA border) has promoted some very
spotty/weak convection over the last few hours, although the
majority of this activity has remained a few counties north-
northeast of our CWA altogether. Meanwhile farther south,
although no showers/storms have formed thus far, another area of
agitated cumulus is noted along the FAR southern edges of our
CWA in KS, where the weak front/wind shift is in the process of
stalling out near/slightly north of the I-70 corridor.


- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT:
Leaning heavily on higher-res, short-term models such as HRRR
(along with observational trends), have kept thunderstorm
chances (PoPs) below the mentionable 15 percent threshold across
the vast majority of our CWA (aka...a dry forecast). The only
two/limited exceptions are: 1) Slight/isolated chances through
around 8 PM in our northeast...mainly east of a Greeley-Geneva
line...to account for additional spotty/weak thunderstorm
development on the backside of the departing wave...2) a stripe
of slight chance PoPs for the evening hours mainly in
Rooks/Osborne/Mitchell counties in our extreme south...JUST IN
CASE something is able to overcome weak upper forcing and
develop near weak surface/low-level convergence zone. However,
this would appear to be a touch more likely JUST south of our
CWA altogether within the I-70 KS counties. In both areas,
severe storms are considered fairly unlikely due to anemic deep-
layer shear around 20KT at most...although some gusty winds
cannot be totally ruled out.

For the post-midnight/late-night time frame, have maintained a
dry forecast CWA-wide, as convection across the greater region
should focus both to our south (central/southern KS) and also to
our northwest (northwest NE/southwest SD).

Under what should be mostly clear skies and in the presence of
light north-northeasterly breezes, there is a non-zero chance of
at least patchy/mainly light fog very late tonight into early
Sunday AM, and have officially introduced this to the forecast
for most of our Nebraska CWA (widespread and/or dense fog issues
not currently anticipated).

Low temps aimed 63-69 across most of our CWA, with typically-
cooler far northern spots such as Ord possibly TRYING to dip
toward the upper 50s (but have officially gone with low 60s
there).


- SUNDAY DAYTIME (through around 7 PM):
Although some models at least weakly suggest that perhaps some
rogue convection could clip mainly our western counties already
in the morning, and possibly again (again mainly west) mid-late
afternoon, currently have fairly high confidence that the vast
majority of our CWA gets through at least 7 PM dry/storm-free
(although not high, our coverage of PoPs in our western half
could easily prove overdone for the afternoon).

Assuming it does indeed stay dry/mostly dry, it will simply be
another "standard issue" summer day with high temps aimed very
similar to today (mid-upper 80s Neb/low 90s KS), as fairly light
(mainly around 10 MPH/gusts up to around 15) breezes prevail
mainly easterly.


- SUNDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT (after 7 PM):
Let the next in a parade of fairly uncertain/"murky"
thunderstorm and possible severe weather chances begin! Taking
latest higher res models such as HRRR/NAMNest at face value,
most of the eastern half of our CWA should remain dry, while at
least parts of mainly the western 1/3 to possibly 1/2 of our CWA
could see potentially more isolated early-evening storm
development, followed by possibly more widespread activity in
the form of a mesoscale convective complex (MCS) rolling in from
the west-northwest later in the evening-overnight. That being
said, even at this fairly close time range, models all show at
least slightly different scenarios...some certainly more
aggressive than others. Overall cannot argue with SPC focusing
their Slight Risk of severe in mainly our western 1/3, as deep-
layer shear does look a bit more favorable than it did even 24
hours ago to support some severe potential (increasing to around
30-40KT).

In other departments: low temps again mainly mid 60s most
areas.


- MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT:
Our potentially active pattern persists, as we reside under
continued west-northwest flow aloft containing various/low-
amplitude disturbances, along the periphery of a larger-scale
upper ridge/high centered well to our southwest over the Desert
Southwest/northern Mexico. Although details still leave plenty
to be desired, the overall GENERAL expectation is for most of
the day to be dry (perhaps with some lingering/weak morning
convection from any Sunday night activity), before the evening-
overnight hours again turn active with the potential for another
larger-scale storm complex/MCS to roll into/across much of our
CWA from west-northwest to east-southeast. Should this
transpire, the main threats would be damaging winds/localized
heavy rain, with overall-lesser chances (albeit non-zero) for
large hail and possibly a brief tornado or two.

Temperature-wise, assuming possible lingering early-day
convection/associated clouds depart in a timely manner, highs
should make the mid-upper 80s.


- TUESDAY DAYTIME-THURSDAY NIGHT:
Although the upper pattern remains fairly similar through most
of this time frame (mainly west-northwesterly flow), in theory
it looks a bit less active (possibly due in part to slightly
warmer air aloft/increased capping), and (at least for now) we
have more of a dry forecast compared to the preceding few
days/nights. That being said, at least spotty, mainly overnight
convection is still quite possible.

Temps look to go on a slight warming trend, peaking on Thursday
with highs mainly low 90s Nebraska/mid 90s KS.


- FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
Although plenty far out in time to have much faith in anything
resembling finer details, in theory things turn a bit more
active and also a bit cooler...as both the latest ECMWF/GFS
depict a bit stronger/less subtle upper disturbance moving out
of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern/Central Plains,
and in turn driving a halfway-decent surface cold front
southward through the region. Although not a dramatic cool-down
by any means, this is reflected in our temperature forecasts,
with highs dropping down a good 5-10 degrees from
Thursday...with most areas Fri-Sat aimed only low-mid 80s
(except our KS zones Friday which are still upper 80s/near 90).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1258 PM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in dry/thunderstorm-free conditions throughout
the period, and in VFR ceiling/visibility through the vast
majority of it. The main uncertainty lies very late tonight into
early Sunday morning, when at least some (not all)
models/guidance suggest light fog and/or low stratus
development.

Winds will not be much of an issue throughout, with sustained
speeds at-or-below 10KT the vast majority of the time as
direction shifts from northerly/northwesterly this afternoon-
tonight, to more easterly Sunday daytime.

- Ceiling/visibility details:
Again, extremely high confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility
through at least these first 12-15 hours (although a scattered
to possibly briefly-broken, low-end VFR stratocumulus deck is
likely this afternoon). However, the main question marks are
focused especially 09-13Z, during which time mainly light fog
and/or MVFR (perhaps IFR?) stratus cannot be ruled out.
Currently don`t have enough confidence in this scenario to
indicate prevailing sub-VFR conditions, but will at least "hint"
at it with 6SM BR/SCT010 groups. IF a lower ceiling does manage
to develop, it could stick around beyond 13Z, but would likely
scatter out by the end of the period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch