983
FXUS63 KOAX 120423
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1123 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible (5-14% chance)
  late this afternoon and evening near the South Dakota border.
  A similar risk is forecast again Thursday night.

- On-and-off shower and thunderstorms chances (15-40% PoPs)
  Friday into early next week. Best severe-weather potential
  currently appears to be early next week.

- Above-normal temperatures continue into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

     Remainder of this afternoon through tonight...

A loosely organized MCS is ongoing from southwest MN into far
southeast SD and northwest IA, with the system being forced by a
low-amplitude disturbance located just upstream. Mesoanalysis
places a trailing, outflow-reinforced synoptic boundary across
northern NE, with a hot and modestly moist air mass to the
immediate south, supporting MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg along the
front. Latest CAM output remains consistent with previous runs
in showing isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
along the boundary late this afternoon into this evening, with
the convective activity subsequently diminishing overnight.
Proximity forecast soundings depict a modestly sheared, but
steep-lapse-rate environment, supportive of briefly intense
up/downdrafts capable of marginally severe hail and/or locally
damaging wind gusts.


     Thursday and Thursday night...

Another low-amplitude disturbance is projected to track through
the northern Plains this period, with a surface low developing
from western NE Thursday morning into southeast SD by Thursday
evening/night. The progression of the surface low will result in
the front currently in place over northeast NE lifting to the
north into SD and MN. As a result, the best thunderstorm
potential is expected to remain to the north of the area with
only 15-30% PoPs in the forecast across portions of northeast
NE. A conditional risk for a strong to severe storm or two
exists near the SD border, mainly Thursday night.

Highs on Thursday will be cooler than those today, with readings
in the mid 80s to around 90.


     Friday through the weekend...

A prominent, mid/upper-level high is forecast to develop over
northwest Mexico into the southern Rockies and adjacent High
Plains, with the northern extension of that feature gradually
building through the central into northern Plains. The 12z
global models do suggest the potential for weak disturbances to
move along the periphery of the building ridge, though
confidence is low in the timing and placement of those features.
In the low levels, a front is expected to linger in the region,
supporting periods of generally 15-30% PoPs. This forecast
update will indicate the best measurable precipitation chances
(30-40% PoPs) on Saturday and Sunday nights. While isolated
severe storms are possible, the various machine-learning
systems suggest the greater threat remaining to our west.

High temperatures will remain above-normal for this time of year
with readings in the mid 80s to low 90s.


     Monday and Tuesday...

The models suggest that the mid-level ridge may be dampened by
disturbances moving through the northern Plains, leading to
continued shower and thunderstorm chances across our area.
Machine-learning guidance suggests a comparably higher severe-
weather threat at this time, though specific details remain
uncertain.

Highs in the upper 80s to low 90s on Monday are forecast cool
slightly into the 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing mid to
high clouds overnight and FEW to SCT clouds around 5000-6000 ft
agl during the day Thursday. Winds will remain southerly around
10 to 15 kts, with some gusts near 20 kts at times Thursday
afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...CA