497 FXUS63 KGLD 162326 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 526 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storms are forecast this evening and into the early morning hours. There is a 5-10 percent chance of severe weather occurring with the strongest storms mainly across eastern portions of the area with the main hazard being hail up to half dollar size. - Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as numerous hours of dangerous fire weather conditions forecast. Wind shift associated with a wind shift remains forecast as well later in the day Thursday. - Patchy blowing dust resulting in some reduction of visibilities is possible across western portions of Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties Thursday. A more impactful issue may be the dust lofted into the air may result in hazy conditions and degraded air quality further downstream however. - Cooler and wetter Friday through the weekend with rain and even snow chances. Little to no snow accumulation is expected at this time. Higher confidence however in freezing temperatures across much of the area along with hard freeze potential Friday morning through Sunday morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Warm temperatures across the area for the remainder of the day in the 80s. Winds overall are forecast to remain on the lighter side as the CWA is in between synoptic systems although some sporadic wind gusts around 20-25 mph are possible through the afternoon due to deep mixing. The main focus for day will be on the shower and potential thunderstorm risk for this evening and into the early morning hours. A 700mb shortwave emanating from the Rockies is forecast to move onto the Plains this evening and interact with a developing low level jet across SW Kansas. Initially some high based showers do look to develop off of the Palmer Divide and move into western Kansas with essentially no impact. Any precipitation looks to be minimal due to the dry air in place at the surface. A couple hundred j/kg of both MU and SBCAPE does look to be in place so a rogue lightning strike can`t be ruled out with this activity. Moisture advection will be ongoing across eastern portions of the area due to the low level jet as dew points rise in the low to mid 50s along and east of Highway 83. As these showers move into the better moisture and increasing CAPE up to around 1000-1500 j/kg. The environment overall will be favorable for the potential for large hail up to half dollar size due to lapse rates around 8-8.5C/km, wind shear of 50-60 knots and straight line hodographs. With all of this said the severe threat does look to be conditional and will be dictated on the timing of the moisture return. There does remain some scenarios where the wave moves through a little quicker and shunts the moisture return to the east such as the HRRR and RAP. Other guidance such as the RRFS and NAMNEST has the moisture return making it as far west as Colby and would end up being a more impactful scenario where the storms would have a longer residence time in the more moist air which would increase the severe threat. Overall, confidence in severe weather with all of this said is currently around 5-10% and would be favored across Gove, Sheridan, Graham and potentially as far north as Norton counties. Thursday, a surface low remains slated to to develop across western Kansas, further to the north across Nebraska a stationary front is forecast to slowly move southward as a cold front. Confidence remains high multiple hours of critical fire weather occurring across most of the Fire Weather Watch, as a result have upgraded the entire watch to a warning. Dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast for Cheyenne (CO), Kit Carson, Wallace, Greeley and Wichita counties as those counties as very dry air with RH values falling into the single digits and wind gusts up to 45 mph are forecast to occur; across Cheyenne (CO) and Kit Carson counties would not be surprised if some 50+ mph winds can occur. Sherman through Graham and Logan and Gove counties appears not have as strong of winds due to a slightly weaker wind field however wind gusts around 35 mph remain forecast There still does appear to be limited area that still may see some organized blowing dust across Cheyenne and Kit Carson counties where the winds will be stronger, however as mentioned the past few days 2-2.5km lapse rates remain very high which would still support dust filtering out and leading to hazy sky. I did re-add in the patchy blowing dust wording into the forecast for these two counties due to the strength of the wind being highest across that area and the potential for plumes of dust developing across Lincoln,Crowley, Kiowa counties and moving into the CWA. Elsewhere, still can`t rule out some splotchy, localized dust issues especially near open fields but think any dust impacts would be few and far between. Onto the wind shift/cold front. There does appear to be the potential for an initial wind shift in the form of a pre frontal trough/pseudo stationary front setting up across the Highway 36 corridor where winds will be northerly and slightly higher dew points resulting in RH values in the low to mid 20s. The main surge of cold air advection and the impactful wind shift doesn`t appear to happen until later in the day as the low moves off to the east which will then allow that pseudo stationary front to surge southward. Very good agreement with guidance of 10-13mb pressure rises with the front resulting in 40-50 mph wind gusts with the front, a rogue gust of 55+ mph is also possible. Behind the cold front, precipitation chances have decreased some due to a lack of forcing. There was some concern that this was due to it being drizzle, but don`t think that drizzle or even freezing drizzle where it is coldest will be an issue due to a high probability of ice being present in the clouds. The precipitation chances at this time are favored to be across the higher elevations of Yuma and Kit Carson counties where rain will transition to snow as cold air advection continues to push in. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 The active pattern is forecast to continue into the extended period as well along with a much cooler air mass in place Friday and into the weekend. A subtle surface trough within the flow of the main trough is forecast to move across eastern Colorado through the day Friday in wake of the cold front continuing rain and snow chances for the eastern Colorado counties. Not anticipating much if any impacts with this as ground temperatures are very warm in the 50s which should help keep any accumulations from ongoing. High temperatures for the day are forecast in the upper 30s across eastern Colorado to the mid 50s across eastern portions of the CWA. Another hard freeze is also likely for much of the forecast area Saturday and Sunday mornings. Friday night and into Saturday, the trough is forecast to move slowly to the east. My overall expectations for precipitation remain tempered due to a more southern track of the trough and easterly ejection into Kansas. However, there are some ensemble members that do try to develop a secondary 80-100 knot jet streak towards the tail end of the larger scale trough. If this does occur then the chances for precipitation would increase. The ECMWF ensemble members favor more snow due to colder temperatures being in place, with accumulating snowfall well into NW Kansas. This is also seen as well with a shift of tails on the 00Z EFI but would be more a low confidence higher impact scenario. Only a handful of GEFS ensemble members show show this jet streak and has temperatures not as cold as the ECMWF. Since this is a fairly new development I don`t want to completely latch onto this but it does bear watching at this point. Precipitation chances are forecast to continue through Sunday morning and then slowly waning as the day goes on. Into the start of the new work week, additional waves are forecast to continue to move through the area as apart of a larger scale longwave trough across the NW CONUS. Moisture return is also forecast to continue to increase starting late Monday and through the day Tuesday which may lead to some thunderstorm chances if the timing of the waves can align just right and continue through the rest of the work week. With this still being 6+ days out overall confidence in this occurring is low at this time as a lot can and more than likely will change with guidance. As for temperatures, as mentioned above a cooler air mass is forecast to be in store to start the week with freezes and hard freezes likely for most of the area Friday through Sunday morning. Those with any gardening or other vegetation interests will want to assure proper precautions are taken place ahead of the colder weather. A return to more seasonable conditions does look to occur to start the new work week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025 VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. There is a low probability, less than 20%, of a shower or thunderstorm impacting either terminal through about 08z tonight. Brief gusty downburst winds will be the main hazard near any thunderstorms that develops. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM CDT/ Thursday for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042. CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ253- 254. NE...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...024