497
FXUS63 KGLD 162326
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
526 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms are forecast this evening and into the
  early morning hours. There is a 5-10 percent chance of severe
  weather occurring with the strongest storms mainly across
  eastern portions of the area with the main hazard being hail
  up to half dollar size.

- Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning as
  numerous hours of dangerous fire weather conditions forecast.
  Wind shift associated with a wind shift remains forecast as
  well later in the day Thursday.

- Patchy blowing dust resulting in some reduction of
  visibilities is possible across western portions of Cheyenne
  and Kit Carson counties Thursday. A more impactful issue may
  be the dust lofted into the air may result in hazy conditions
  and degraded air quality further downstream however.

- Cooler and wetter Friday through the weekend with rain and
  even snow chances. Little to no snow accumulation is expected
  at this time. Higher confidence however in freezing
  temperatures across much of the area along with hard freeze
  potential Friday morning through Sunday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Warm temperatures across the area for the remainder of the day in
the 80s. Winds overall are forecast to remain on the lighter side as
the CWA is in between synoptic systems although some sporadic
wind gusts around 20-25 mph are possible through the afternoon
due to deep mixing. The main focus for day will be on the shower
and potential thunderstorm risk for this evening and into the
early morning hours. A 700mb shortwave emanating from the
Rockies is forecast to move onto the Plains this evening and
interact with a developing low level jet across SW Kansas.
Initially some high based showers do look to develop off of the
Palmer Divide and move into western Kansas with essentially no
impact. Any precipitation looks to be minimal due to the dry
air in place at the surface. A couple hundred j/kg of both MU
and SBCAPE does look to be in place so a rogue lightning strike
can`t be ruled out with this activity. Moisture advection will
be ongoing across eastern portions of the area due to the low
level jet as dew points rise in the low to mid 50s along and
east of Highway 83. As these showers move into the better
moisture and increasing CAPE up to around 1000-1500 j/kg. The
environment overall will be favorable for the potential for
large hail up to half dollar size due to lapse rates around
8-8.5C/km, wind shear of 50-60 knots and straight line
hodographs. With all of this said the severe threat does look to
be conditional and will be dictated on the timing of the
moisture return. There does remain some scenarios where the wave
moves through a little quicker and shunts the moisture return
to the east such as the HRRR and RAP. Other guidance such as the
RRFS and NAMNEST has the moisture return making it as far west
as Colby and would end up being a more impactful scenario where
the storms would have a longer residence time in the more moist
air which would increase the severe threat. Overall, confidence
in severe weather with all of this said is currently around
5-10% and would be favored across Gove, Sheridan, Graham and
potentially as far north as Norton counties.

Thursday, a surface low remains slated to to develop across western
Kansas, further to the north across Nebraska a stationary front is
forecast to slowly move southward as a cold front. Confidence
remains high multiple hours of critical fire weather occurring
across most of the Fire Weather Watch, as a result have upgraded the
entire watch to a warning. Dangerous fire weather conditions are
forecast for Cheyenne (CO), Kit Carson, Wallace, Greeley and Wichita
counties as those counties as very dry air with RH values falling
into the single digits and wind gusts up to 45 mph are forecast to
occur; across Cheyenne (CO) and Kit Carson counties would not be
surprised if some 50+ mph winds can occur. Sherman through Graham
and Logan and Gove  counties appears not have as strong of winds due
to a slightly weaker wind field however wind gusts around 35 mph
remain forecast There still does appear to be limited area that
still may see some organized blowing dust across Cheyenne and Kit
Carson counties where the winds will be stronger, however as
mentioned the past few days 2-2.5km lapse rates remain very high
which would still support dust filtering out and leading to hazy
sky. I did re-add in the patchy blowing dust wording into the
forecast for these two counties due to the strength of the wind
being highest across that area and the potential for plumes of
dust developing across Lincoln,Crowley, Kiowa counties and
moving into the CWA. Elsewhere, still can`t rule out some
splotchy, localized dust issues especially near open fields but
think any dust impacts would be few and far between.

Onto the wind shift/cold front. There does appear to be the
potential for an initial wind shift in the form of a pre
frontal trough/pseudo stationary front setting up across the
Highway 36 corridor where winds will be northerly and slightly
higher dew points resulting in RH values in the low to mid 20s.
The main surge of cold air advection and the impactful wind
shift doesn`t appear to happen until later in the day as the low
moves off to the east which will then allow that pseudo
stationary front to surge southward. Very good agreement with
guidance of 10-13mb pressure rises with the front resulting in
40-50 mph wind gusts with the front, a rogue gust of 55+ mph is
also possible.

Behind the cold front, precipitation chances have decreased some due
to a lack of forcing. There was some concern that this was due to it
being drizzle, but don`t think that drizzle or even freezing drizzle
where it is coldest will be an issue due to a high probability
of ice being present in the clouds. The precipitation chances at
this time are favored to be across the higher elevations of
Yuma and Kit Carson counties where rain will transition to snow
as cold air advection continues to push in.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

The active pattern is forecast to continue into the extended period
as well along with a much cooler air mass in place Friday and into
the weekend. A subtle surface trough within the flow of the main
trough is forecast to move across eastern Colorado through the day
Friday in wake of the cold front continuing rain and snow chances
for the eastern Colorado counties. Not anticipating much if any
impacts with this as ground temperatures are very warm in the 50s
which should help keep any accumulations from ongoing. High
temperatures for the day are forecast in the upper 30s across
eastern Colorado to the mid 50s across eastern portions of the CWA.
Another hard freeze is also likely for much of the forecast area
Saturday and Sunday mornings.

Friday night and into Saturday, the trough is forecast to move
slowly to the east. My overall expectations for precipitation
remain tempered due to a more southern track of the trough and
easterly ejection into Kansas. However, there are some ensemble
members that do try to develop a secondary 80-100 knot jet
streak towards the tail end of the larger scale trough. If this
does occur then the chances for precipitation would increase.
The ECMWF ensemble members favor more snow due to colder
temperatures being in place, with accumulating snowfall well
into NW Kansas. This is also seen as well with a shift of tails
on the 00Z EFI but would be more a low confidence higher impact
scenario. Only a handful of GEFS ensemble members show show
this jet streak and has temperatures not as cold as the ECMWF.
Since this is a fairly new development I don`t want to
completely latch onto this but it does bear watching at this
point. Precipitation chances are forecast to continue through
Sunday morning and then slowly waning as the day goes on.

Into the start of the new work week, additional waves are forecast
to continue to move through the area as apart of a larger scale
longwave trough across the NW CONUS. Moisture return is also
forecast to continue to increase starting late Monday and
through the day Tuesday which may lead to some thunderstorm
chances if the timing of the waves can align just right and
continue through the rest of the work week. With this still
being 6+ days out overall confidence in this occurring is low at
this time as a lot can and more than likely will change with
guidance.

As for temperatures, as mentioned above a cooler air mass is
forecast to be in store to start the week with freezes and hard
freezes likely for most of the area Friday through Sunday morning.
Those with any gardening or other vegetation interests will want to
assure proper precautions are taken place ahead of the colder
weather. A return to more seasonable conditions does look to occur
to start the new work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 524 PM MDT Wed Apr 16 2025

VFR expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. There is a low probability, less than 20%, of a shower
or thunderstorm impacting either terminal through about 08z
tonight. Brief gusty downburst winds will be the main hazard
near any thunderstorms that develops.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM MDT /11 AM CDT/ to 9 PM MDT /10 PM
     CDT/ Thursday for KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ253-
     254.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...024