826
FXUS63 KGID 161932
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
132 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy on Wednesday. Southwest winds may gust over 40 MPH,
  mainly in areas north of I-80.

- Light rain, especially in northeastern areas, Wednesday
  evening into Wednesday night.

- Potential for high winds (gusts 55-60+ MPH) continue to
  increase for Thursday. A High Wind Watch is now in effect for
  the entire area.

- Mostly dry and mild through the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 127 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Once again, temperatures have overachieved. Despite increasing
high clouds, temperatures have climbed into the low 60s in many
areas. Wednesday will be another warm day, but winds will
increase ahead of an approaching shortwave. Southwest winds may
gust over 40 MPH in many areas north of I-80. And a few gusts to
50 MPH aren`t out of the question (40% chance in Valley county).

Wednesday evening, the shortwave will move into the northern
Plains, bringing light precipitation to the area. This
continues to look like a rain-only event for our area, and
northeastern areas have the best chance to see some sprinkles up
to possibly 0.10".

Later Wednesday night, the cold front associated with this
system will sweep through, bringing stronger northwest winds to
the area. Given the overnight timing, this initial surge of wind
is expected to be 40-50 MPH range, with stronger winds arriving
during the daytime on Thursday. There are still some differences
amongst global ensembles on where the highest winds will occur
(GEFS favors west...EPS favors north and east). But, based on
the NBM, most of Nebraska has a 50-80% chance to see gusts in
excess of 55 MPH. Probabilities in northern Kansas are a bit
lower (30-40%), but those areas will be a bit
warmer/drier, possibly resulting in near critical fire weather
conditions.

Winds will fall of pretty quickly Thursday evening, and
temperatures are expected to drop into the teens and low
20s. After this brief cooldown on Thursday, temperatures rebound
Friday as ridging builds over the western/central CONUS. Another
front is expected to move through over the weekend. This will
bring a modest cooldown, and could bring some light
rain/snow, although the potential for any measurable
precipitation is low (10%).

Next week still looks incredibly warm for late December.
Ensemble-mean high temperatures are in the 50s, with some
deterministic runs hinting at highs in the 60s in the days
around Christmas.

&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1100 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

High confidence (90%) in VFR conditions through the period.
Scattered high clouds will continue to move through the area
today.

Relatively light northwest winds turn back to the southwest and
increase for Wednesday. Gusts to 30kts are possible Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...High Wind Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mangels
AVIATION...Mangels