950 FXUS63 KGID 020535 AFDGID Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hastings NE 1235 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - The hazy skies and smoke from the Canadian wildfires will gradually work east out of our area tonight. - Most and maybe even all of our forecast area should see appreciable rainfall Monday evening into Monday night. NBM is giving us an 80-90% chance of at least 0.50" with better than 50% odds of over 1.00". Very localized rainfall amounts over 2-3" may result in flash flooding. - The thunderstorms Monday evening could be severe especially across the northwestern half of our forecast area (hail to golf balls and wind gusts to 70 mph). - Tuesday morning could still be rainy until showers eventually work off to the southeast. Much cooler Tuesday behind the cold front (Highs in the 60s). - Fairly active weather pattern continues Wednesday-Sunday, with highs in the 70s and eventually some 80s by the weekend, and thunderstorm chances (15-40%) each day. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025 Tonight... Not much to talk about in the short term. The haze/smoke will work east of our area and we should see cleaner air. No precipitation with southerly winds expected. Severe Thunderstorms Monday evening into Monday night... This is the real deal for widespread appreciable rainfall across our hardest hit drought counties. Many areas will see 0.50-1.50" of rainfall between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. In fact we could even see some localized flooding in areas where storms train over the same area resulting in some localized rainfall amounts of 2 to over 3 inches. This will be a slowly sagging line of storms that will track southeast across the forecast area Monday evening/overnight. Severe weather is likely initially in the evening before it turns into just a big rain maker by later in the overnight hours. There will be a substantial amount of frontal forcing so thunderstorms will quickly develop into a line along the southeastward sagging cold front. Initial thunderstorm development will probably be after 5 PM Monday evening and initially just northwest of our forecast area and then slide southeast into the Tri Cities, maybe sometime after 8 PM. Timing can be fine tuned as we get closer. There will be strong instability ahead of the cold front with MLCAPE values over 3000 J/Kg. However, deep layer shear is not overly impressive as winds aloft (500-250mb) will generally be less than 40 kts. A stronger low level jet just after dark to around 50 kts should help to sustain/feed the convection as it tracks southeast across our area. Can not rule out a brief QLCS tornado embedded within the line during the evening hours before the gust front pushes too far out ahead of the convection. Severe winds are likely the primary threat with this expected line of storms, but large hail may also be possible for the first couple of hours after the storms develop. Tuesday Cool and Rainy... Rain showers will linger into Tuesday morning and then exit to the southeast Tuesday afternoon. Any severe weather on Tuesday should be well southeast of our forecast area. Additional rainfall on Tuesday will be lighter and generally around 0.25" or less. Highs will only be in the 60s with the clouds behind the cold front. Wednesday through Sunday... The pattern remains fairly active with weak short waves passing through. However, rainfall may be more isolated/scattered and forecast models are a bit all over the board on the timing of these subtle troughs. There is no obvious severe weather days, but also can not rule out isolated severe weather, thus will have to see how things evolve. Temperatures should warm back into the 70s mid week through Friday with some 80s again by the weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Jun 2 2025 For KGRI/KEAR Airports: VFR conditions expected through sunset on Monday. Southerly winds will increase after sunrise, with sustained winds of 15-20kts and gusts of 25-30kts by the late morning hours, continuing into the evening hours. A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along a cold front Monday evening, and reach the TAF sites sometime 03-06z. Heavy rain is expected in thunderstorms with MVFR visibility and ceilings possible in storms. Have indicated this potential for MVFR conditions with a PROB30 group. Strong winds are also possible in thunderstorms but confidence in any wind speeds are too low to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will shift to the north around the end of the TAF period as the cold front and thunderstorms move into the TAF sites. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wesely AVIATION...Davis