304 FXUS63 KOAX 081719 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms associated with a departing complex will gradually taper off through the morning hours. - Additional storm chances persist through the work week, with the greatest potential for severe weather and excessive rainfall on Thursday. - A trend toward drier and milder conditions is expected next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Short Term (Today and Tomorrow) As of 2 AM, MRMS composite reflectivity displays last night`s MCS pushing into northeast KS and northwest MO, leaving behind gradually decaying showers and thunderstorms across the area. Zooming out, water vapor imagery this morning displays a ridge centered over the Four Corners region, leaving much of our area in northwesterly flow aloft with a series of shortwave disturbances riding the ridge and pushing into the area through the remainder of the work week. Showers will continue to taper off through the morning with skies clearing into the afternoon. This should allow afternoon highs to climb into the mid to upper 80s. We can`t rule out a few diurnally driven showers later today, though this chance remains low (< 20%), given how overworked the environment is from the overnight MCS. Wednesday will see similar conditions, with highs expected to top out in the upper 80s to low 90s. An approaching shortwave disturbance and associated vorticity maxima will approach the area into the evening, bringing our next chance for precipitation (PoPs 20-35%). Storms are expected to initiate to our west along an associated surface trough, with more than sufficient instability and modest shear, bringing the potential for organized storms capable of damaging winds and hail. However, shear gradually weakens as the storms progress eastward towards our area. The main question that remains is how storms will hold together as they progress into our area, with the potential for them congealing into another MCS. The SPC currently clips northeast NE with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather. Long Term (Thursday and Beyond) Thursday is shaping up to be a day of active weather as a two potent shortwave disturbance rounds the ridge and interact with each other as they push from the northern Rockies into the northern Plains. Ahead of an associated surface trough, strong southerly low-level flow will help to usher in moisture, with a plume of 70+ dewpoints excepted across the region. Additionally, steep mid-level lapse rates and a tongue of very strong instability is expected to pull into the area. Questions still remain with this setup and the expected storm mode, though severe weather potential will be something to keep an eye on. Additionally, the setup is looking favorable for excessive rainfall given PWAT values pushing near 2". PoPs currently peak at 45-60% late Thursday night before gradually tapering off through Friday. The majority of the CWA is in both a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather from SPC and a slight risk for excessive rainfall (level 2 of 4) from WPC. A brief cool down is expected Friday and Saturday on the back side of the departing system, with highs taking a subtle drop into the upper 70s to low 80s. PoPs taper off through the weekend as we remain in zonal to northwesterly flow aloft with little to no disturbances sliding by. High temperatures are expected to rebound to the upper 80s by the end of the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions expected for this TAF cycle. May see a SCT cumulus field around 5,000 ft at KOFK this afternoon. Winds will remain light under 12 kts and turn more easterly as sfc high pressure moves to the east. May see some scattered showers and storms affect KOFK after 11z and KLNK after 14z, but given confidence remains less than 50% at terminals seeing impacts, have left mentions out at this time. Expect further refinements and adjustments with future issuances. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Wood AVIATION...Castillo