166 FXUS63 KOAX 082325 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Early day showers and a stray rumble of thunder will continue to sweep south and east through the evening, with remaining rainfall expected to be low. - Wildfire smoke will continue to make for hazy sky conditions through tomorrow. - A warmer pattern and in the mid-to-upper 80s arrives Tuesday, with a hot Wednesday topping out in the low-to-mid 90s. - Nearly daily thunderstorms will affect at least some part of the forecast area Wednesday onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 344 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Today and Tomorrow: Water vapor imagery this afternoon features a deep, cutoff low entering the Great Lakes region, providing a narrow band of lift across the Central Plains and wrapping east into the main upper system while a longwave ridge continues to hold over the western CONUS. Drilling down to the surface regionally, eastern Nebraska and Iowa continue to see an east-west oriented band of showers and a few rumbles of thunder to the south, as elevated moisture accentuated by southern flank of the upper system begins to weak as the best forcing for ascent shifts eastward from Nebraska into Iowa and Illinois/Wisconsin. Those showers have had their impact felt in both the cool temperatures and underachieving highs underneath and in the weaker winds as deep mixing occurs to the north with gusts of 25-35 mph out of the northwest. Expect these gustier conditions to continue to sink southward this afternoon and evening, with a few places that got rain earlier have a sneaky late high temperature thanks to delayed sunlight. Also of recent concern has bee smoke mixing down to the surface that has been sourced form the northern wildfires. Looking at upstream observations and amounts here locally, smoke at the surface has under-performed today. We`ve dialed back the influence of smoke in the surface forecast, which should generally stay closer to 10 miles rather than the 4-6 miles that we had seen recently. Nonetheless, we are expected some denser lobes of smoke to be lofted over the area through tomorrow that will continue to affect the sky cover, but don`t seem like they`re bring the the air quality down to the levels seen previously. For the general forecast tomorrow, cool temperatures topping out in the 70s are expected alongside a dry day with a pleasant field of cumulus forced by steel low-level lapse rates (as opposed to the normal highs in the low-to-mid 80s for this time of year). Gusts will also return mid-morning and increase to 20-30 mph before tapering off by 5 PM (which will make for a beautiful evening). Tuesday and Beyond: The heart of the work week should see the mid/upper pattern break down into zonal flow over the Central Plains, allowing shortwaves o` plenty to push through the forecast area beginning Wednesday. Highs should begin climbing into mid-week, with temperatures peaking in the 90s Wednesday before backing off back into the mid/upper 80s through the remainder of the forecast. Tracking storm potential will generally start with initiation occurring well west of the area and propagating into eastern Nebraska and Iowa, with no one location or day showing better severe potential than another this far out. Going into the weekend, we`ll see a somewhat squat ridge oriented from the desert southwest pointed towards the central High Plains, continuing those normal, summer-like temperatures before shifting slightly drier look to the early work week to follow. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025 VFR conditions favored through the period with departing mid level clouds this evening, though can`t completely rule out some smoke reaching the surface and leading to MVFR visibility at times overnight. Winds will be out of the west to northwest at around 10 kts overnight and settle in at northwesterly Monday morning with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. Also expect some scattered clouds around 5000 ft agl by mid to late morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Petersen AVIATION...CA